CNN

Peter Bergen on CNN | 'Pakistan Targets Militant Offensive Near Afghan Border'

Communications — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:47:00 -0400

New America in the News:
...ROBERTS: This morning in Pakistan government forces are pounding Taliban targets for a third day in a row. The offensive comes after militants have been threatening the city of Peshawar.

Peter Bergen is CNN's terrorism analyst. He joins us now from our bureau in Washington. Peter, just how great is the threat to the city of Peshawar and why is it so important strategically?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATL. SECURITY ANALYST: Well, John, as you know, this is the city through which a lot of supplies -- you know, supplying U.S. and NATO troop go through Peshawar on their way to Afghanistan. So the Taliban calculation is that they can put pressure on the city of Peshawar. They can really strangle the supply route to Afghanistan. So that's why it's critically important.

Of course, also, it is a major city in Pakistan. It will be -- if the Taliban can show that they have an ability to control it, it would be a huge victory for them... LINK to transcript

Peter Bergen on CNN Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer | Reporting on Al Qaida in Iraq

Communications — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 10:03:00 -0400

New America in the News:

WOLF BLITZER: ...And also joining us here in Washington, our CNN terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen. His most recent book is entitled "The Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of Al Qaida's Leader."...

Are the United States and its allies losing ground in the war on terror right now?

PETER BERGEN: Well, it depends where you are. I mean, as Ahmed has pointed out, certainly Al Qaida on the Afghan/Pakistan border has resurged, as the national intelligence estimate said in 2007.

Certainly the Taliban are able to conduct these large-scale operations. But if you move to Iraq, where I recently returned from a trip that was sponsored by the Defense Department, it's quite clear Al Qaida in Iraq has scored a series of tremendous goals. It isn't defeated as a terrorist organization, but it's being defeated as an insurgency there.

And in fact, there is some evidence, now, that people within Al Qaida are leaving Iraq for Afghanistan, which they see as a, sort of, more fruitful area of jihad than Iraq itself...LINK

Peter Bergen talks with CNN Newsroom | Hamid Karzai Survives Assassination Attempt

Communications — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 07:38:00 -0400

New America in the News:

CNN Newsroom | Hamid Karzai Survives Assassination Attempt

RICK SANCHEZ (CNN Anchor): An elected head of state survives this assassination attempt today. President Hamid Karzai and the video is incredible out of Afghanistan. He's alive, but three people who were near him this morning are not. Whoever tried to kill him timed it perfectly to make a statement. It was a celebration of Afghan history, progress and pride at the time in Kabul. . .

Peter, people will be watching this at home and asking if the Afghanis cannot even protect their president from potential assassination. What does it say about their control of the government there?

PETER BERGEN (CNN Terrorism Analyst, and New America Foundation's Schwartz Senior Fellow): Well, Rick, it's only says something about the ability of the Taliban to penetrate Kabul. And we're seeing not only this attempt against Hamid Karzai, we've also seen in the last several months an attack on a major five-star hotel in Kabul that kill an American and other westerners.

And basically, what the Taliban is trying to do is just set to say, look, we have the ability to mount operations in Kabul. . .

And this attack, as you know, Rick, took place on a major celebration in Afghanistan. Independence celebration from the communists. There was a great deal of security in place and in anticipation of this. But clearly, the Taliban were able to penetrate this security.

SANCHEZ: After hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars spent, Americans would like to know if the situation in Afghanistan is as difficult as the situation in Iraq, Peter.

What would you tell them? Is it better? Is it the same? Is it worse?

PETER BERGEN: It's certainly nothing like Iraq, Rick. I mean, in Iraq we've seen something like 920 suicide attacks just in the last five years. Which have killed more than 10,000 people. In Afghanistan by contrast we're seeing suicide attacks going up pretty sharply, but the total would be surprising. It wouldn't be more than 200-plus suicide attacks right now, Rick.

So the levels of violence we're seeing in Iraq is nothing like we're seeing in Afghanistan. However, that being said, the situation in Afghanistan certainly in the last two years has gone from not particularly good to something that looks a little bit like today, which is something that raises some serious questions about security. Not just in Afghanistan but in the capital city itself.

SANCHEZ: Peter Bergen, important, comparative analysis that you bring us. Thank you for being with us on this really busy news night.

Steve Coll and Peter Bergen on CNN's Late Edition | Interview on Osama bin Laden

Communications — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 07:24:00 -0400

New America in the News:

CNN's Late Edition | Interview on Osama bin Laden

WOLF BLITZER (Host): Six-and-a-half years after 9/11, Osama bin Laden is still in hiding and a grave danger to the United States. What drives him? And what can we predict about what he might do next? For some answers we turn to two men for special insight. Steve Coll's new book is entitled, "The Bin Ladens." He's joining us from Berlin. And with her in Washington, our CNN terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen, his book is entitled "The Osama Bin Laden I Know." Thanks to both of you very much for coming. A quick question on the news today, Hamid Karzai, Steve Coll, apparently an assassination attempt in Kabul today by Taliban, perhaps al Qaeda elements. He survived. Others weren't so lucky. What's the latest in terms of the hunt for bin Laden? Is the U.S. and the West any closer to finding him?

STEVE COLL (President, CEO of New America Foundation): Well, I'm not aware of any specific intelligence that has lit up the trail in the last six months or so, but the circumstances in which he's hiding have changed. And he's probably in Pakistan and there his popularity has declined considerably, and also you've got a new government in power, so the motivations on the Pakistani side are changing very quickly.

BLITZER: What do you think, Peter?

PETER BERGEN (New America's Schwartz Senior Fellow): Yes, I think the hunt for bin Laden is going very poorly. As Steve said, bin Laden's support is evaporating in the North-West Frontier Province, where he's almost certainly hiding. A recent poll showed he had dropped from 70 percent favorable in August of 2007 to 4 percent.

BLITZER: So wouldn't that make it easier for Pakistani or other -- or the U.S., Afghan troops, somebody to find him?

PETER BERGEN: Yes. And I think the short answer is yes. Also a very sharp decline in support for suicide bombings amongst Pakistanis. Unfortunately, on the other hand, you have got a Pakistani government which is doing a deal with some of the militants in the North-West Frontier Province at the same time. So as always, sort of a mixed message here with the Pakistanis.

BLITZER: You had written, and I'll read the quote to you here from a piece, Steve, in The Los Angeles Times back on April 13th. You wrote: "Bin Laden may well understand what many Americans do not, that he's more likely to be killed or captured during the next year or so than at any time since late 2001 when he escaped U.S. war planes bombing him in eastern Afghanistan at Tora Bora." Explain what you meant.

STEVE COLL: Well, the first and most important factor is the one that Peter cited, which is that the popularity that he enjoys in the area where he's almost certainly hiding has collapsed, and the way these hunts have always ended in the past in Pakistan -- or almost always, is that somebody has dropped a dime on the fugitive, and it just seems entirely logical that this is more likely now than it was when his favorability ratings were in the 70s.

I also think that the new government in Pakistan, although they have just cut a deal with the Ayatollah Massoud, that raises questions about their strategy. And nonetheless they come to office with a different set of motivations than President Musharraf had.

The U.S., perhaps unintentionally, got itself into a perverse situation with Musharraf in which the structure of its aid almost incented the high command of the Pakistani army not to find bin Laden, because then their rent that they were charging the United States would be cut off or reduced.

And here you've got a democratic government that argued in Washington vehemently that they'd be a better counterinsurgency and better counterterrorism partner than Musharraf. Finding bin Laden would certainly be a way to demonstrate that and I think some of them are aware that they would be rewarded rather than punished if they succeeded.

BLITZER: Well, that's an optimistic assessment, Peter, that perhaps we could wake up one morning in the not-too-distant future and hear the words "bin Laden captured or killed." Is that something that would shock you?

PETER BERGEN: Well, one day it's inevitable because he's a human being and a human being makes mistakes. And I think, again, Steve is completely correct. The political winds have shifted in a way which is quite damaging to al Qaeda and the Taliban itself in Pakistan. So one can only hope.

BLITZER: Here is a quote from bin Laden in a statement he released last March 20th, Steve. And I'll read it to you. "The nearest jihad battlefield to support our people in Palestine is the battlefield of Iraq. The people of the blessed land should sense the great favor God has bestowed upon them and do what they should do to support their mujahedeen brothers in Iraq."

How important to bin Laden is what's going on in Iraq right now?

STEVE COLL: Well, I think it's one of three or four countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, where he sees his followers in action, and -- but the statement itself is the broader significance of his importance now. He may have a small operational role when operatives from Europe reach the border and plan attacks in Europe.

But mostly what he's doing is narrating the war that he believes he's leading. And when narrates that war, he tries to send a message to his followers to motivate them, to remind them of what the most important targets are.

Sometimes these followers act even when they have no contact with him. So I think that's the significance of his role now is his ability to communicate and also the continuity of leadership that he provides symbolically and actually to al Qaeda. This is an organization that has had the same two leaders in place for 20 years now, never been tested by a succession crisis.

BLITZER: He's talking about Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian number two. Do you agree with that assessment, Peter?

PETER BERGEN: Yes. I mean, it's quite unusual for a terrorist organization that is about to celebrate its 20th anniversary this year. They've been quite successful, and both the leaders are still in charge of the organization. BLITZER: Here is a quote from your new book "The Bin Ladens," Steve, and I'll read it to you. We'll put it up on the screen, page 569: "He mocked his Western adversaries for misunderstanding him as a pre-modern fanatic, a bearded loner in a far away cave. He saw himself instead as a master of global technology and change." Explain your point.

STEVE COLL: Well, I think in the West we've had a tendency to locate Osama in our minds as a backward looking, long-bearded, medieval sort of character, when in fact his success has been a product of his grasp and use of modernization, particularly the technologies of global integration.

His first great innovation as a terrorist leader was to use a satellite phone to carry out simultaneous attacks on two U.S. embassies in Africa while never leaving Afghanistan. And he has also used the media, satellite television, and, of course, aviation to innovate.

And so I think it's just important to understand that's who he is. That presumably would help figure out -- aid the effort to contain and defeat him.

BLITZER: Steve Coll's new book is entitled "The Bin Ladens." Steve, thanks for coming in. Peter Bergen has got a good book entitled, "The Bin Laden I know." Thanks to you, as usual, as well.

Peter Bergen on CNN | Pakistan Bombings Reach 'Unprecedented' Levels

Communications — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:25:00 -0500

New America in the News:
Pakistan Bombings Reach 'Unprecedented' Level (CNN)
CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen says the number of suicide bombings in Pakistan has "reached unprecedented levels in the past year. Previously, Bergen says, such attacks were rare. ...

CNN Interviews Steve Clemons on the Bush Administration and Pakistan

Communications — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 12:56:00 -0500

New America in the News:

... BLITZER: President Musharraf seized power in a 1999 coup and appointed himself president while remaining the head of the Pakistani Army. Washington strengthened ties with him after 9/11. Since then, Musharraf has walked a fine line -- cooperating with the U.S. in the war on terror without provoking Islamic groups inside Pakistan. …

STEVEN CLEMONS, NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION: It's terribly hypocritical to go into the world and talk democracy as boldly and as robustly as this administration did and then to cozy up to a dictator now like Musharraf. President Bush can no longer go out and give a pro-democracy speech. ...

For the complete "Situation Room" transcript, please follow this link. Clemons, Director of the American Strategy Program at New America, wrote about this topic on his blog, TheWashingtonNote.com.

CNN's Peter Bergen on Violence in Afghanistan

Communications — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 08:49:00 -0400

New America in the News:

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: We begin with a new threat in Afghanistan. Over the weekend, more than 50 Taliban fighters were killed or wounded in a raid by NATO-led troops. But that is barely a dent. Violence in Afghanistan is surging. More than 350 people died this year from insurgent attacks. It is the deadliest year since the war began. And now it has become clear that the region has become a magnet for foreign fighters who are even more extreme than the Taliban. And they brought deadlier tactics to the war and are changing the face of the enemy. Joining us this evening, CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen. Huge, huge influx reported in these foreign militants who are fighting alongside the Taliban. Why such an increase? Why now?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, Soledad, as I'm sure you're aware, the situation in Afghanistan over the last year or so has got progressively worse. IED attacks doubled in the last year. Suicide attacks quintupled, up to 139. They're already up 69 percent this year. Attacks on international forces tripled. And part of this is because of al Qaeda's influence on the Taliban. The tactics that worked, unfortunately, so well in Iraq have been imported into Afghanistan, the suicide attacks, the IED attacks. And, at the same time, there's been people going from Afghanistan to the -- to Iraq to actually learn on the job there. And some of these people are coming back. "The New York Times" reports today that there are more foreign fighters in Afghanistan, according to both U.S. officials and Afghan officials. And that's a problem, because, of course, the foreign fighters are even more radical than some of the Taliban, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: And the number they gave are 5,000 people killed. Reports say that these fighters, Peter, are coming from Pakistan, Chechnya, even Turkey and China, and that they hope to further radicalize, as you point out, some of the more moderate figures within the Taliban. What kind of long-term impact do you think this sort of influx could have?

BERGEN: Well, I think, unfortunately, it could make the already-violent situation in Afghanistan quite a lot worse.

For the complete transcript, please follow this link. Peter Bergen is a Schwartz Senior Fellow at New America Foundation.

Peter Bergen on CNN, Criticizes White House for Afghanistan Decisions

Communications — Mon, 15 Oct 2007 03:00:00 -0400

New America in the News:

From the CNN Transcript of "Your World Today":

The Washington Post says U.S. generals in Iraq are considering issuing a "declaration of victory" over al Qaeda in Iraq. They cite a number of promising statistics, including a reduction in U.S. casualties -- 22 so far this month -- a sharp drop in suicide bombings from a high of more than 60 in January to less than half that number in July; a reduction in the flow of fighters into Iraq from Syria; and the capture recently of key al Qaeda leaders in Iraq.

Although there is general agreement at the Pentagon that al Qaeda in Iraq has suffered some setbacks since the summer, some U.S. military leaders are reportedly cautioning strongly against issuing any such declaration of victory. They say it is very much premature to do so. …

In an article published in the opinion magazine The New Republic, Peter Bergen is critical of just about every decision the White House has made in what he calls "The war of error." Earlier, we asked Bergen what he considered the Bush administration's biggest missteps so far.

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: I think shortchanging Afghanistan. Afghanistan was the peacekeeping effort where the least number of soldiers were put on the ground since World War II. In term of America's efforts in peacekeeping operations before, it was almost the most underfunded, only 6,000 American troops.

We also prevented other countries from patrolling outside Kabul for the first two years. And we basically squandered an opportunity there. We, of course, also let bin Laden go at the battle of Tora Bora and switched our attention to Iraq, which had the counterproductive effect of establishing al Qaeda in Iraq for the first time. After all, al Qaeda in Iraq only came into existence a year after the invasion.

It's also become the cause celeb for jihadists around the world, according to the national intelligence estimate, which is the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies collectively saying that this is a cause celeb. And, in fact, there is empirical evidence to support that.

A colleague of mine at NYU, Paul Cruickshank, and I looked at jihadist terrorist attacks after the invasion of Iraq and the period after the September 11th attacks. We found a sevenfold increase in the rate of jihadist terrorist attacks. …

Peter Bergen is a Schwartz Senior Fellow with New America Foundation. For the complete transcript, please vist CNN.com.

Afshin Molavi on CNN's The Situation Room on Ahmadinejad

Communications — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 18:05:00 -0400

New America in the News:

TODD: So did Ahmadinejad emerge from the U.N. with the upper hand?

AFSHIN MOLAVI, NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION: It may look like he snubbed his nose at the United Nations and got away with it. But it also just may be a short-term tactical victory, which may not contain the elements for a long-term victory for Iran...

Afshin Molavi is a Fellow with New America. For the complete transcript from "The Situation Room," please visit CNN's website.

CNN Interviews Nir Rosen on Iraq and Peter Bergen on Pakistan

Communications — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 08:23:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Interview with Nir Rosen on Iraq:

...TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So Nir, we keep hearing reports, though, nonetheless out of Baghdad. People saying that give us time, we are trying to get this government worked out. We are going to make some progress. Do you see any way that can happen?

NIR ROSEN: No. This has been the case for the past would two years at least. There is no hope. There is no government. Neither side is interested in compromise and why should they? The Shias control Baghdad. They have removed the Sunnis from Baghdad, from Iraq's political future.

FOREMAN: What's going to change that if anything?

ROSEN: Nothing is going to change that. The Shias have actually expelled most of the Sunnis from Baghdad. It went from being a majority Sunni city. Now it is a majority Shia city. The last few pockets of Sunnis are slowly being purged by the police and the Mehdi army. It's now irrevocably a Shia city and Sunnis are just out. Unfortunately, Iraq has been completely remade and it is time to be honest. It is time for the American leaders to be honest and American military to be honest with their people. There can be no reconciliation. This does - the latest show we had a few days ago where they brought a few leaders together and pretended like they were going to reconcile, the Sunnis are still out of the government and they remain so and why should they be? They have been expelled from Iraq. The majority of the three million refugees that we have from the region, from Iraq are Sunni. The majority being internally displaced are Sunni. Of course, whatever agreement were to be reached, parliament would never ratify it anyway...

***

Interview with Peter Bergen on Pakisan:

...FOREMAN: We've said before, the question of whether Pakistan descends into anarchy is an important question, and it is important for a lot of reasons. But we only need one. It has got nuclear weapons and an election coming up. So let's get a sense of who might be playing. Pervez Musharraf is one of the people. The prime minister and he's the head of the military. He is facing opposition from all sides.

Now it appears, however, that Musharraf might make a deal with two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the head of the largest opposition party. Plus, the Pakistani Supreme Court just ruled that this man, the man Musharraf ousted in a bloodless coup, Nawaz Sharif can return and compete in the upcoming elections.

Sharif has put together an alliance of smaller opposition parties. So now that we know who the players are, let's get an idea of who might be winning the game. CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, a fellow at the New American Foundation, joins me right here in Washington, D.C., to offer his many insights. As does Akbar Ahmed, once Pakstan's ambassador to the United Kingdom, and now a professor at American University.

So, Akbar, we start with you. Is there a sense of any one of these three having an advantage at this point?

AKBAR AHMED, FMR. PAKISTAN AMB. TO U.K.: At this point, I would say the focus is entirely upon Benazir Bhutto and President Musharraf because of their negotiations. There also you see a dynamic power oozing out of President Musharraf, and Benazir seeming to be more and more confident every day. Very charismatic now.

But there is a third player, which you pointed out, and that is Nawaz Sharif. He does have a power base, especially in the Punjab, which is what matters, because the army is based in the Punjab, the politics of Pakistan in the Punjab, and the economy of Pakistan in the Punjab. Now if he gets back to Pakistan in the next 10 days, which is what he's promising to do, you could have an upsetting of the apple cart that Benazir and Musharraf are setting up. And the problem is none of them trust each other. There is a bad history between all three.

FOREMAN: So, Peter, a quick sketch. What are the problems facing the next leader of this country?

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I mean, there are many. I mean, first out, obviously the tribal areas where the Taliban has just captured 100 Pakistani soldiers in the last 24 hours. Also where al Qaeda is headquartered, planning attacks both in Britain and in the United States from there.

I mean, that 's the number one problem. But there are other problems. I mean, Pakistan is a very large country with a population of something like 180 million. You mentioned the nuclear weapons issue. There is a sizable militant Islamist movement. Although it is not as large as some people may believe it is. That is something that any future leader of Pakistan has to contend with...

These excerpts are from CNN's "This Week at War." For the complete transcript, please follow this link.