The Financial Times

Why We Should Fear a McCain Presidency

Ron Tang — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 14:50:00 -0400

It may seem incredible to say this, given past experience, but a few years from now Europe and the world could be looking back at the Bush administration with nostalgia. This possibility will arise if the US elects Senator John McCain as president in November.

Over the years the US has inserted itself into potential flashpoints in different parts of the world. The Republican party is now about to put forward a natural incendiary as the man to deal with those flashpoints.

The problem that Mr McCain poses stems from his ideology, his policies and above all his personality. His ideology, like… more

Steve Clemons and Lawrence Wilkerson in Financial Times | 'A Family Business'

Communications — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:15:00 -0500

New America in the News:

'A Family Business' (Finanical Times Analysis Online)

To the generation of Cuban exiles that has spent almost half a century dreaming of the day Fidel Castro left power, last week came as a cruel disappointment.

While the legendary revolutionary leader finally stepped down as head of state, the communist government he set up maintains its grip on a calm and stable Cuba. With no sign of a fundamental policy shift in Havana, Washington is also continuing the economic embargo introduced by John F. Kennedy. ...

“I don’t believe this administration, with its tin ear, is going to be productive in any way,” says Col Lawrence Wilkerson, formerly Colin Powell’s chief of staff at the State department, speaking about Mr Castro’s resignation. “But I do believe this might spark the two Democratic [presidential] candidates and perhaps the Republican candidate to begin a policy review,” he adds, saying that such a move could lead to the end of restrictions on visiting the country and an easing of the embargo.

Steven Clemons, a foreign policy expert at the Washington-based New America Foundation, says loosening trade and travel restrictions with Cuba would be the most effective and low-cost means for the next US president to signal a new way of engaging with the world. He expects little resistance to a policy change among the broader US population as fear of communism fades. “The contradiction between trading with China and Vietnam on the one hand and maintaining the embargo with Cuba on the other is becoming more difficult to sustain,” he says. ...

“People are having to choose between returning for their mother’s funeral or their father’s funeral because, if both die within three years of each other, they cannot attend both,” says Mr Clemons.

History’s Hurdle for the Democrats

Ron Tang — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 00:00:00 -0500

According to the conventional wisdom, the odds are in favour of the Democrats winning back the White House this year. With the country mired in an unpopular war in Iraq and perhaps in a prolonged recession, voters will treat the November election as a referendum on George W. Bush and punish his party. Some even see the disarray among Republican hawks, social conservatives and economic libertarians as evidence that the reign of the Grand Old Party is over and that a new Democratic majority is dawning.

That is one possibility. But it is worth considering the possibility that US politics has… more

Michael Lind in Financial Times | Back to 'the economy, stupid'

Communications — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:18:00 -0500

New America in the News:
Back to 'the economy, stupid' How a slowdown will influence America's presidential contest (Financial Times)

..."The widespread notion that a downturn or a recession gives a clear advantage to the Democratic presidential challenger is not always supported by the facts," says Michael Lind, a political historian at the New America Foundation in Washington. "The past offers just as much evidence that we could get a Republican president with a Democratic Congress in November as a Democratic control of both." ...

New America in Financial Times | 'Presidential rivals vie over economy'

Communications — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 00:08:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Presidential rivals vie over economy (Financial Times)

The Obama team claims its simpler package could be delivered and take effect more quickly – a claim most economists support. “When you need stimulus you cut checks,” Austan Goolsbee, an adviser to Mr Obama, told the New America Foundation. “You’ve got to get the money out the door.” more

Balkan Unrest Remains a Recipe for Disaster

Ron Tang — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 00:00:00 -0500

In their dealings over Kosovo's independence, the European Union and Russia need to take their points of departure from reality and common responsibility for the stability of the European continent, not from legalism or self-righteousness. The Russians must recognise that, whether they and the Serbs like it or not, Kosovo will soon become independent and will be recognised as such by the US, the EU and many Muslim states. If this is not granted soon, the Kosovo Albanians will revolt. By vetoing United Nations recognition and giving moral support to Serbian intransigence, Russia can help keep Kosovo unstable… more

Mark Schmitt in Financial Times | 'Obama Takes Lead'

Communications — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:44:00 -0500

New America in the News:

The Financial Times did a story following the Iowa caucuses. (quoted Mark Schmitt)

Mr Obama, who described his win as a "defining moment in history" and a victory of "the politics of hope over the politics of fear", can also appeal in New Hampshire to a much larger population of independent voters than in Iowa, where they came out for him in record numbers as did younger voters.

"It is hard to see what Hillary can do in five short days to turn it around," said Mark Schmitt, a fellow at the centrist New America Foundation in Washington. ...

For the complete article, follow this link.

Pakistan Must Seek a Route From Dynasty to Unity

adminn — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 14:44:00 -0500

To understand the implications of Benazir Bhutto's assassination for Pakistan, first imagine what that country would look like without her Pakistan People's party. It has been overwhelmingly a dynastic party and she was the last politically viable representative of the Bhutto dynasty. Without her to hold it together, it is highly probable the PPP will disintegrate.

In the short term, this is likely to benefit President Pervez Musharraf and the army but, in the longer term, Islamist extremists may have the most to gain.

If the PPP does fragment, the ability of the army to use patronage to put together coalition governments… more

The Centre-Ground's Shift to the Left

adminn — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 22:42:00 -0500

Whether a Democrat or a Republican is inaugurated in January 2009, the centre of political gravity in the US is well to the left of where it was a decade ago. President George W. Bush's own contribution to the shift has been negligible. It is the result of long-term, tectonic shifts in political and economic ideology that are affecting all developed countries.

In hindsight, despite the re-election of a conservative president, 2004 was the hinge between eras. The definitions of right, left and centre changed dramatically between 1932 and 2004, which can be broken into two periods.

In the first, 1932-1968, the… more

Hopes for Annapolis and After

adminn — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 15:30:00 -0500

The absurd and tragic thing about the inability of the Israelis and Palestinians to work out a final peace settlement is that, compared with many conflicts, the terms of a settlement are not difficult to delineate and most impartial experts are agreed on them.

They are as set out in a public letter jointly issued by the New America Foundation and other bodies. Key points are a territorial settlement on the basis of the 1967 borders and that Palestinian refugees give up the demand of return to Israel in return for massive compensation.

When it comes to the lead participants, there… more