India

Here Comes the Second World

Ron Tang — Thu, 01 May 2008 09:42:00 -0400

This article is adapted from Parag Khanna's book The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order.

The term "second world" has fallen out of use. It used to mean countries of the socialist world; today I use the phrase to refer to those countries in eastern Europe and central Asia, Latin America, the middle east and southeast Asia which are both rich and poor, developed and underdeveloped, postmodern and pre-modern, cosmopolitan and tribal -- all at the same time. This is not a temporary state between third world and first, but a permanent condition in which… more

The Advocate Quotes Afshin Molavi on the Global Economy

Communications — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 10:21:00 -0400

New America in the News:

In 1913, a young Franklin D. Roosevelt wrote in a private letter that a war among the major European powers would be so deadly and destructive that it could not be imagined. In 1914, he learned differently.

There are so many historic examples of war being so unlikely, so terrible in its prospect that it just "could not" happen. And yet it did.

That is why, in the large sweep of history, people who want to see peace should never underestimate the potential for war. Even those, like the mistaken Roosevelt, who feel rising prosperity is an antidote to conflict.

For centuries, the Silk Road of central Asia was a long and difficult, but valuable, pathway between the eastern and western worlds. Today, analyst [Afshin] Molavi says, a new Silk Road runs through the emerging economies of China, India and the Persian Gulf.

"The new Silk Road is largely the result of the confluence of China's and India's economic growth and high oil prices," said Molavi, a fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington.

"Key 'caravan posts' on the new Silk Road are regional economic 'winners' or rising stars: Dubai, Beijing, Mumbai, Chennai, Tokyo, Doha, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Hong Kong, Riyadh, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi," Molavi wrote in The Washington Post. "The old Silk Road civilization centers such as Persia (Iran), the Levant (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan) and Mesopotamia (Iraq) lag behind."

Vast real estate and industrial construction projects are under way along the new Silk Road, with Chinese, Korean, Indian and Japanese companies competing feverishly for business. While Molavi noted that American officials are busy with the crises in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States should not miss the significance of long-term development along the new Silk Road.

Is prosperity an antidote for conflict?

"Security in the Persian Gulf is now as important to Beijing and New Delhi as it is to Washington. China will no longer be content to perch under America's security umbrella, and the Indian navy now more assertively patrols the Arabian Sea," Molavi argued. "What's more, China and India have far more influence with Iran than we do - and less tolerance for a disruptive war. Many of the (Iranian) Islamic republic's political elites are also business elites, eager to find a way out of conflict."

Perhaps, as Molavi argued, a Western strategy of seeking to engage the volatile regimes of Iran and China into an emerging new Silk Road economy will have a moderating impact on their policies. But good behavior and economic prosperity don't always go hand in hand.

Look at China's aggressive military build-up in a region where it has no realistic security threats. Look at Iran's nuclear ambitions and deranged threats to eradicate Israel from the map.

Economic engagement is important in itself, and as a secondary security strategy. But we should not make the same prediction young Mr. Roosevelt made almost a century ago.

For more on this story, please visit The Advocate web site.

Clintons' Ties to India Could Imperil Your Job

Articles — Tue, 19 Jun 2007 08:31:00 -0400

If a leading American presidential candidate -- and her husband, an ex-president -- seem to have unnaturally close connections to foreign companies interested in draining away American jobs, should that be of interest to Americans?

Some, including campaign rival Barack Obama, say yes, this should be a big story. But the mainstream media seem to say no. Why this media lack of interest?

For the past six years -- since Bill Clinton left the White House, since Hillary Clinton entered the U.S. Senate -- both Clintons have cultivated close ties with Indian companies. Bill has invested as much as $50,000 in an… more

The United States and the Emerging Powers

Articles — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 12:22:00 -0500

History is replete with examples of great power conflict that develops when the world’s dominant powers are not willing or able to accommodate the interests of rising powers into the international order of the day. The last time the world denied two major rising industrial powers, Germany and Japan, what they considered their rightful place in the sun the result was world war. Following World War II, another hot world war was avoided only because the Western powers accepted the separate international system the Soviet Union had created until it collapsed from its own internal pressures for greater political and… more

Parag Khanna

Operations — Wed, 19 Apr 2006 17:50:00 -0400

Senior Research Fellow and Director, Global Governance Initiative

Parag Khanna is an expert on geopolitics, global governance, and Asian and European affairs, and was most recently the Global Governance Fellow at The Brookings Institution. He has worked at the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland, where he specialized in scenario and risk planning, and at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he conducted research on terrorism and conflict resolution. He is the author of The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (Random House, 2008). Mr. Khanna holds bachelors and masters degrees from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and is completing his… more

Overselling a Nuclear Deal

Articles — Tue, 07 Mar 2006 04:00:00 -0500

There are sensible and foolish arguments against the U.S.-Indian nuclear deal. The foolish ones are those based on a theological approach to nuclear nonproliferation. The serious ones relate to the nature of the new U.S.-Indian "strategic partnership," and to wider U.S. strategies in the region.

The argument that India must not be rewarded for developing nuclear weapons is a foolish one. In the real world, there is no more chance of India giving up its nuclear deterrent than there is of America, Russia or China giving up theirs. There are strong arguments, therefore, for the U.S. to help India develop… more

A Nuclear Deal, Warts and All

Articles — Tue, 07 Mar 2006 00:00:00 -0500

The White House will soon start lobbying Congress to approve its recent nuclear deal with India. Even before President Bush returned home, his foreign policy team was touting the economic payoffs from access to the Indian market, India's democratic credentials and the common interest India and the United States have in checking China's influence.

The problem is that key members of Congress and the vocal nonproliferation pundits don't buy these arguments. They're already gearing up for a fight, claiming that the administration has effectively killed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. (Never mind that this pact has been a dead letter… more

Engage Iran, Support Pipeline

Articles — Mon, 18 Jul 2005 00:00:00 -0400

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in Washington this week and, in addition to meeting with President Bush, will address a joint session of Congress -- an indicator of the dramatic change in the once-chilly relationship between India and the US.

Equally remarkable has been the upturn in the India-Pakistan relationship, which the Bush administration has helped promote.

But by doggedly opposing the projected gas pipeline from Iran across Pakistan to India, the administration is still forgoing a key opportunity to bind India and Pakistan together further, while also engaging Iran and giving it a greater stake in the stability of… more

An Axis of Democracy

Articles — Fri, 01 Jul 2005 03:00:00 -0400

The transformation in the relationship between India and Israel, from one that was at best cool and correct to one that is now hailed as a strategic alignment is among the striking changes in the post-Cold War landscape. This shift has been widely praised, particularly by Israeli, Indian and American commentators. They believe that its potential significance extends well beyond the dense network of transactions that has developed between the two sides, and out across the entire region of South Asia and the Greater Middle East.

But the emerging relationship between the two countries has been followed by… more

Breaking the Kashmir Impasse

Articles — Mon, 22 Nov 2004 00:00:00 -0500

Both critics and admirers of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf will agree on one thing: The man does not lack boldness or an appetite for risk-taking.

Consider some examples. In 1999, as army chief, he seized power from the elected -- if rather ineffectual -- government of Nawaz Sharif after the prime minister had tried to oust him.

After 9/11, Musharraf abruptly broke with the Taliban, which had acquired and retained power in no small measure thanks to support from Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence services and Pakistani Islamists. He then repositioned his country as an ally in George… more