Joel Kotkin

Whither the American Economy?

Communications — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 08:30:00 -0500

A New America Event
11/30/2007 - 8:30am

Responding to the damage caused by the slowdown in housing, the subprime mortgage crisis, and fears of a U.S. recession, the New America Foundation held a national policy forum on the need for a new era of public investment on Friday, November 30, 2007.

Despite the recent economic slowdown, New America Foundation board member Bernard L. Schwartz opened the conference with an optimistic message. The dynamism of the American economy, Schwartz argues, bolstered by robust public investment, can overcome present challenges. Schwartz and Economic Growth Program director Sherle Schwenninger outline a strategy for rebuilding the American economic engine in “Public Investment Works,” which appears in the fall issue of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.

Video of Schwartz's opening presentation is available at right. Videos of the other presentations and panels -- as well as presentation materials, the policy papers released at this event, and other details -- are included below.

Johnson Presentation

Panel 1: How Hard Will the Fall Be?

Lachman Presentation

Panel 2: Shaking
It Off?

Conference Papers

The Macroeconomic Considerations of a Public Investment Strategy
by James Galbraith
James Galbraith examines the depressing effects of the slowdown in housing, the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, and the inter-connected problems of failing infrastructure and long-term climate change.

Back to Basics: A Pro-Growth Public Investment Strategy
by Joel Kotkin
Joel Kotkin argues that the era of asset price inflation—the housing and stock market bubbles—has masked a perilous hollowing out of public infrastructure, the key to sustained and equitable economic growth.

Conference Presentation Materials

Presentation Slides from Simon Johnson's Kickoff to Panel 1

Presentation Slides from Desmond Lachman's Kickoff to Panel 2

Participant Spotlight

Saviors of the Citi
by Zach Karabell, Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2007

"The recent announcement that Citibank received a cash infusion of $7.5 billion from Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund was greeted with a mixture of relief and bewilderment by the financial markets." read more (subscription required)

Time to Stand Up to Wall Street
By Steve Pearlstein, The Washington Post
October 31, 2007

"Remember all those stories about how the nose dive in financial markets was the first big test for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the academic economist who was still developing his feel for the interplay between the central bank and Wall Street?" read more

Back to Basics: A Pro-Growth Public Investment Strategy

Economic Growth — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 16:32:00 -0500

For more than a decade, rising asset prices have driven the economy, benefiting the wealthy but doing relatively little to improve either the economic status of the majority of Americans or the country’s overall competitiveness. Rising stock and housing prices created staggering short-term increases in wealth for some, but did little to bolster the nation’s preeminence in technology, industry, or agriculture.

In order to retool the economy and generate balanced, robust job growth, the government should focus on rebuilding and enhancing the nation’s energy, transportation, and communications infrastructure. Judicious investment in renewing and creating critical public goods… more

Can't Stand the Heat

Articles — Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:51:00 -0400

It’s all the suburbs’ fault. You know, everything -- traffic congestion, overweight kids, social alienation. Oh, and lest we forget, global warming and rising energy costs, too.

That latest knock against the burbs has caught on widely. With their multiplying McMansions and exploding Explorers, the burbs are the reason we’re paying so much for gas and heating oil and spewing all those emissions that are heating up the atmosphere --or so a host of urban proponents tells us. It’s time to ditch the burbs and go back to the city. New York, Boston, Chicago -- these densely packed metropolises are "models… more

San Fernando Valley Business Journal Quotes David Gray, Joel Kotkin

Communications — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 07:35:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The value of a workplace diversity program may be best shown by the decisions made during economic downturns.

Do the programs stay, continuing their goal of making the working environment reflective of society at large and promoting awareness of different cultures and lifestyles?

Or do they get cut and possibly send a negative message to the employees – and the non-business world – that the company no longer considers diversity to be important.

The larger a corporation, the more extras they may add to their diversity programs – mandatory training, feedback surveys, cultural events, and employee network or support groups; programs that cost in the millions...

Hospitals and other healthcare providers in general are not as affected by bad economic times as some industries and so would not be as likely to cut back on diversity programs because of their close contact with the public...

The reasons for starting diversity programs has less to do with the economy than with responding to an event or a trend the corporate culture sees or because the legal or human resources department wants to have one, said David Gray, director of workforce and family program at non profit policy institute and think tank New America Foundation.

“Once they start they are harder to remove because it might signal a step back to certain employees,” Gray said. “People are reluctant to add them for that reason...”

Southern California with its wide mix of races and ethnicities is unique in the opportunity presented to employers to create diverse workplaces.

According to state statistics, the population of Los Angeles County was estimated to hit 10.2 million in 2006. Of that number, more than 7 million are Hispanics, Asians, Pacific Islanders, African American or Native American. About 150,000 were estimated to be multi-racial.

Seeing those numbers makes it understandable why Sherman Oaks-based author and urban historian Joel Kotkin said that in Los Angeles diversity programs are a “hangover from a different era.”

When he gets from talking with employers is they are struggling to find the best people possible to fill positions, Kotkin said, adding that what the business world needs to do is upgrade the skills of those entering the workforce regardless of their ethnicity...

For the complete article, please visit the San Fernando Valley Business Journal website.

Katie Couric Interviews Joel Kotkin on American Cities for 10 Questions

Communications — Thu, 17 May 2007 13:36:00 -0400

New America in the News:

At a time when American cities are changing so rapidly--both as centers of our society, as a launch pads for escape to suburbs and exurbs--I thought I'd consult with the man who may be the country's leading expert on urban life, Joel Kotkin, author and Irvine Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation. He’s the subject of this week’s 10 Questions. We talked about the problem with trendiness in cities, what it takes to make a well-managed city, and why sustaining the middle class is so important.

1. Mr. Kotkin, your book, "The City: A Global History," distills the essence of why cities were created-and what they are meant to accomplish-in about 200 pages. So here's the most basic question: how do you define a city-and what is it there for?

Kotkin: A city is a place that is more than a village or town. It provides all the essential needs, and also tends to have a strong sense of identity and purpose. In our expanding urbanized world, more and more places -- even small towns and some suburbs -- are becoming more like cities, particularly with the internet.

2. You've long criticized the middle class leaving cities for suburbs and exurbs-and leaving only the super-rich and poor in their place. What does it take for the middle class to stay in a city-and why is it so vital that they be there?

Kotkin: The middle class is the ballast that holds cities together. It allows for the broadest spectrum of employment and services. Keeping it in some cities will be difficult due to high housing prices and bifurcated job markets; in other cities, it's still safety and lack of opportunity. Almost everywhere it's schools. Economy, schools, safety are the keys to retaining a strong middle class...

For the complete interview, please visit the CBS website.

Suburban Idyll

Articles — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 20:51:00 -0400

No generation has lauded their revolutionary status more fervently than baby boomers. In documentaries, articles and books they are portrayed -- by themselves and others -- as agents of epochal change who, in the representative words of American University communications professor Leonard Steinhorn, have built "the inclusive, tolerant, free and equal America we have today."

Spoil sports may point out an older generation did the heavy lifting of surviving a depression, defeating the Nazis, overthrowing communism and launching the drive for civil rights. And some conservative boomers, outraged by the flood of self-congratulation, see their own breed as a scourge, undermining… more

Why Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Hollywood Now Rule

Articles — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 16:07:00 -0400

Power in America is shifting from George W. Bush’s Sun Belt mafia -- with its roots in post-1950s aerospace, energy and development -- to a new political triad: a handover of control from one oligarchy to another.

This new triad draws its power from three key postindustrial power centers: technology, entertainment and finance. Its geographic orientation is different as well. Rather than having its primary bases in boomtowns like Houston, Dallas, Charlotte or Phoenix, the new elite clusters mostly in the more established, refined reaches of Silicon Valley, Hollywood and Manhattan.

Nowhere is this shift more notable than in the extraordinary attention… more

Joel Kotkin in The Christian Science Monitor on Unionizing in L.A.

Communications — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 17:28:00 -0400

New America in the News:

It's no secret that labor unions are struggling with declining membership and loss of negotiating clout, but don't tell that to the hundreds of activists who gathered Friday for a rally outside the Hilton Hotel at Los Angeles International Airport...

Analysts note that the city is a major entry point for immigrants, legal and otherwise, who tend to work at low-wage jobs in numbers large enough to have some collective impact. It has active environmental and religious communities, which are increasingly taking up the causes of the poor. Moreover, they say, an exodus by much of the middle class leaves a city in which the contrast between Hollywood's megarich and South Central's slipping poor is acute and, to many, disturbing...

"The big targets for unionization in L.A. are getting smaller," says economist Joel Kotkin, Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation who writes on economic, political, and social trends. "Outside the big public projects, you don't see a lot of union labor, and you are not going to organize day laborers [standing] outside Costco. Since many of the workers don't vote, aren't citizens, and make low wages, the unions are going to have somewhat less money and clout than the industrial unions of before..."

For the complete article, please visit The Christian Science Monitor website.

Hollywood, Wall Street and Silicon Valley

Articles — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 21:07:00 -0400

The collapse of the Bush administration may be seen by some on the left as a triumph of the popular will. But its main result may more accurately be read as a handover of control from one oligarchy to another. A new, more "enlightened" group may be rising to power, but it’s still unclear what this will mean to the vast majority of Americans.

Power in America is shifting from George Bush’s Sun Belt mafia -- with its roots in post-1950s aerospace, energy and development -- to a new political triad. This new triad draws its power from three key post-industrial… more

Joel Kotkin in The Business Press on Developing Riverside

Communications — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 19:40:00 -0500

New America in the News:

Brein Clements, co-owner and head chef at Restaurant Omakase, has watched the same scene repeatedly since he opened the restaurant in downtown Riverside in July.

"People finish their meal, they go straight to their cars and drive off," said Clements, who operates the restaurant - a combination of Japanese and French cuisine - near The Mission Inn along with his wife Roryann. "They don't stay and walk around the city, because there really isn't that much to see. It gets frustrating."

But that may change: the City Council Feb. 20 approved a $50 million residential-retail project called m solè, pronounced "em-so-lay," which will be built by Los Angeles developer Alan Mruvka...

Developers like the concept because it appeals to a wide demographic, from young single professionals to young couples without children to empty nesters.

"If you have a lot of amenities in a downtown that people can walk to, then it has a chance of working," said Joel Kotkin, an author and lecturer who has written extensively on urban planning issues.

"But there isn't that much in downtown Riverside, except for the Mission Inn and a few stores, so I'm not sure. But there are a lot of ways you can spruce up downtown Riverside."

Cities should welcome projects like m solè if they believe such a development can succeed, said Kotkin, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, a non-partisan public policy institute in Washington, D.C.

Municipalities should be reluctant to subsidize them, he said.

"I'm all for a little bit of capitalist risk-taking," Kotkin said. "If a developer wants to spend his money, that's fine with me. Why not? Just don't spend any of my money..."

For the complete article, please visit The Business Press website.