CRFB

In our previous release (President Obama's FY2010 Budget), we discussed the broad fiscal impact of the FY2010 Budget Blueprint. We commended the President for having a specific fiscal goal, honestly budgeting for expected costs, and for providing offsets for many of the new policies he supports. However, we expressed strong concern that the budget included items in the baseline (such as AMT patches, Medicare patches, and the renewal of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts), as a way to avoid paying for

Today, President Obama signed into law the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The "stimulus bill" represents the latest and largest effort by the federal government to boost the deteriorating economy. (For details of all efforts to date, see www.usbudgetwatch.org/stimulus).

Yesterday, the Senate passed its version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 by a vote of 61 to 37. Differences between the House and Senate are being worked out in a conference committee.

In total, the House bill costs roughly $820 billion over ten and a half years, while the Senate bill costs $838 billion. Although similar in size, the two stimulus bills contain a number of important differences. The Senate version relies more on tax cuts and… more

Summary

The Congressional Budget Office's January estimates of baseline federal budget deficits have grabbed the attention of members of Congress and the public. The cumulative effects of persistently large deficits show up in the stock of debt held by the public and the net interest costs of servicing that debt. This brief will provide historical data on those items and CBO's current projections. It also will discuss some of the risks to CBO's estimates.

Debt Held by the Public

The Fiscal Roadmap Project was created to help policymakers navigate the serious economic and fiscal challenges facing the country.

Currently, fiscal policy is being shaped in a haphazard way: bailing out a firm here, letting another firm go bankrupt there; attaching conditions to a company bailout, writing a check to another company without strings attached. These are not ordinary times.

The fiscal year 2009 deficit could reach over one trillion dollars, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). This deficit would be more than twice as large as the 2008 deficit of $455 billion and would represent a post-war record both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP.

"These numbers are simply astonishing," said Maya MacGuineas, president of CRFB. "Of course we can't try to balance the budget right now when the economy is in such turmoil, but… more

In light of the current state of the economy, it appears likely that Congress will pass another stimulus package...

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recognizes that there is a strong enough risk of a prolonged recession that a fiscal stimulus package may well make sense. Given the many risks associated with a significant downturn, it makes sense to err on the side of caution in determining whether more stimulus is appropriate. Assuming Congress proceeds with plans to offer some type of stimulus package, CRFB offers three… more

One of the most pressing issues facing policymakers in the United State is rising health care costs. Cost growth is putting ongoing stress on the budgets of families, employers, and governments. The U.S. already spends $2.2 trillion a year - 16 percent of GDP - for health care. Nearly a third of this comes from the federal government.

Health expenditures are projected to nearly double to $4.3 trillion in a decade, at which point they will represent nearly one-fifth of the economy. According to the… more

The next president will have to address fiscal imbalances within the government and a dramatically rising federal debt. National debt has been on a more or less steady rise since 1974 when, after a steady decline from the massive debt accumulated during WWII, it hit a low of 33.6 percent of GDP. Total national debt was more than $10 trillion at the start of fiscal year 2009.

This rising debt is driven by entitlement growth, resulting from demographic… more

Social Security is the single largest government program. In 2007, the program cost $585 billion and provided benefits for roughly 50 million retirees, dependents, survivors, and disabled workers. It is financed primarily through the payroll tax -- a 12.4 percent tax on wages up to $102,000. The tax is split equally between employees and employers. The remaining revenues come mainly from the taxation of Social Security benefits for wealthier recipients.

Next year, the program’s surpluses will begin to decline precipitously. The… more