Reapportionment

The results of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative in California, still remain too close for most media outlets to call. At Fox & Hounds Daily, I try to find a pattern in the scattershod map of the votes tallied so far.

I'm back today to discover that Prop 11 isn't a done deal at all. Its backers have declared victory, but Prop 11 opponents refuse to concede. The redistricting reform initiative has a lead of nearly 100,000 votes with all precincts reporting, but there are still more than 1 million outstanding ballots -- absentees and provisionals -- to count.

A new Field Poll out this morning in California has news on four ballot props.

-Prop 2, the initiative regulating farm animal confinement, appears headed to an easy win. This would be another big initiative victory for those champions of direct democracy, the Humane Society of the United States.

- Prop 8, the ban on same-sex marriage, is gaining. In the last Field Poll, it had 38 percent support versus 55 opposed. Now the numbers are 44 yes, 49 no. Too close to call.

This New York Times story spotlights the problem of "prison gerrymandering": prisoners can't vote, but they can count as residents of the legislative districts in which they are confined.

Opponents of Prop 11, the California initiative to change how legislative districts are drawn, have been calling the initiative a Republican power grab. But now they've paid for space on a Republican mailer calling it a Democratic power grab. The Yes on 11 campaign quickly pointed this out today. More details via the Sacramento Bee.

Redistricting reform is always a tough sell--too complicated, and the partisan voters on both sides are too skeptical. But Prop 11, the California initiative to take the power to draft legislative districts away from the legislature, has the best chance of any such measure. As opposed to 2005, when a redistricting reform initiative failed badly under an onslaught from public employee unions, the opposition this time is relatively weak and poorly funded. But the initiative has far less than majority support in public polls. Why? The campaign messaging is a mess.

Back in the spring, I ran into a consultant working for redistricting reform, the California ballot initiative Prop 11, and he predicted that there might not be a funded campaign against the measure. I scoffed -- I think redistricting reform, while a fine cause, has been oversold and is politically a waste of time. But it looks more and more like he was onto something.

The Capitol Weekly reports that the powerful California Teachers Association is holding an emergency meeting of its board today to discuss how to respond to the just-passed budget. CTA is unhappy about the budget -- who isn't? -- and is taking action as a result. On the table, according to the Weekly: 1. no spending on Democratic legislative campaigns this fall. 2.

More than a week ago, the Public Policy Institute of California put out a report looking at redistricting and legislative behavior. But it didn't get the attention it deserved. The recall attempt against Gov. Schwarzenegger, the calls for a constitutional convention, and -- most of all -- the end of the budget drama consumed air time and newspaper space.