Financial Times

To judge by the responses of people whom my assistant and I talked with on the streets of Peshawar this weekend, most Pakistanis will greet the departure of President Pervez Musharraf from office with great satisfaction. Fewer than 10 per cent of those interviewed said he had done a good job even at the start of his rule. The rest said they disliked or even hated Mr Musharraf for two main reasons: he has failed to stop inflation, and “he has taken American money to kill… more

The bloody conflict over South Ossetia will have been good for something at least if it teaches two lessons. The first is that Georgia will never now get South Ossetia and Abkhazia back. The second is for the west: it is not to make promises that it neither can, nor will, fulfill when push comes to shove.

Georgia will not get its separatist provinces back unless Russia collapses as a state, which is unlikely. The populations and leaderships of these regions have repeatedly demonstrated their desire to separate from… more

“There is a deepening split between the traditional Nixonian realist wing of the Republican party and the neo-conservatives that has become more pronounced with John McCain’s hardline anti-Russia rhetoric,” said Steve Clemons at the New America Foundation.

“I have good reason to believe that there will be other Republicans who may withhold endorsement from McCain rather than endorse Obama directly.” LINK

All the evidence suggests that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would be a disaster for the greater Middle East, for the world economy and for western security. It would not even benefit Israel, which is adequately protected by its own nuclear deterrent. On the contrary, by creating new links between Sunni and Shia extremism, it would worsen Israel’s long-term chances of survival. Finally, as last week’s remarks by Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint… more

In public, defeat in Afghanistan is unthinkable for western governments. In private, for many it already seems inevitable -- at least if the western definition of “victory” remains the vastly overblown goals set since the overthrow of the Taliban, within any timeframe that is likely to be acceptable to western electorates.

In recent meetings involving Nato officials I have been struck by the combination of public acknowledgment that, to achieve real and stable progress in Afghanistan, western forces will probably have… more

...[N]ot everyone agrees Mr Obama needs to rely on Mrs Clinton for victory. Mark Schmitt, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, said it was not clear her political endorsement would sway voters.

"Obviously those are voters he needs to reach, but it is an open question whether they are reached by her vouching for him, or by him reaching them [with his own message]," Mr Schmitt said...LINK

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. . . "Because of Florida's higher age profile, the state will be difficult for Obama in a general election," says Mark Schmitt, a political analyst at the New America Foundation. "But Obama will also open up other states, such as Colorado, that have a younger age profile, which would probably be beyond Senator Clinton's reach." . . .

It may seem incredible to say this, given past experience, but a few years from now Europe and the world could be looking back at the Bush administration with nostalgia. This possibility will arise if the US elects Senator John McCain as president in November.

Over the years the US has inserted itself into potential flashpoints in different parts of the world. The Republican party is now about to put forward a natural incendiary as the man to deal with those… more

'A Family Business' (Finanical Times Analysis Online)

To the generation of Cuban exiles that has spent almost half a century dreaming of the day Fidel Castro left power, last week came as a cruel disappointment.

While the legendary revolutionary leader finally stepped down as head of state, the communist government he set up maintains its grip on a calm and stable Cuba. With no sign of a fundamental policy shift in Havana, Washington is also continuing the economic embargo introduced… more

According to the conventional wisdom, the odds are in favour of the Democrats winning back the White House this year. With the country mired in an unpopular war in Iraq and perhaps in a prolonged recession, voters will treat the November election as a referendum on George W. Bush and punish his party. Some even see the disarray among Republican hawks, social conservatives and economic libertarians as evidence that the reign of the Grand Old Party is over and that… more