National Security

It's No Longer 1968 For Dems

Ron Tang — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 06:58:00 -0400

In May 2004, as the presidential campaign was beginning to gather steam, an unnamed senior Bush administration official was asked to comment on the dilemma John F. Kerry faced in criticizing the handling of the war in Iraq. His response: “It’s never stopped being 1968” for Democrats.

A more telling description of Democratic vulnerability on national security issues is difficult to imagine. The year 1968 is shorthand for the 40-year political caricature of Democrats as “soft” and “weak” on military affairs. In the late ’60s, Democrats were “dirty hippies”; in the ’70s, they were peacenik McGovernites; in 1984, they were “blame… more

Peter Bergen talks with CNN Newsroom | Hamid Karzai Survives Assassination Attempt

Communications — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 07:38:00 -0400

New America in the News:

CNN Newsroom | Hamid Karzai Survives Assassination Attempt

RICK SANCHEZ (CNN Anchor): An elected head of state survives this assassination attempt today. President Hamid Karzai and the video is incredible out of Afghanistan. He's alive, but three people who were near him this morning are not. Whoever tried to kill him timed it perfectly to make a statement. It was a celebration of Afghan history, progress and pride at the time in Kabul. . .

Peter, people will be watching this at home and asking if the Afghanis cannot even protect their president from potential assassination. What does it say about their control of the government there?

PETER BERGEN (CNN Terrorism Analyst, and New America Foundation's Schwartz Senior Fellow): Well, Rick, it's only says something about the ability of the Taliban to penetrate Kabul. And we're seeing not only this attempt against Hamid Karzai, we've also seen in the last several months an attack on a major five-star hotel in Kabul that kill an American and other westerners.

And basically, what the Taliban is trying to do is just set to say, look, we have the ability to mount operations in Kabul. . .

And this attack, as you know, Rick, took place on a major celebration in Afghanistan. Independence celebration from the communists. There was a great deal of security in place and in anticipation of this. But clearly, the Taliban were able to penetrate this security.

SANCHEZ: After hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars spent, Americans would like to know if the situation in Afghanistan is as difficult as the situation in Iraq, Peter.

What would you tell them? Is it better? Is it the same? Is it worse?

PETER BERGEN: It's certainly nothing like Iraq, Rick. I mean, in Iraq we've seen something like 920 suicide attacks just in the last five years. Which have killed more than 10,000 people. In Afghanistan by contrast we're seeing suicide attacks going up pretty sharply, but the total would be surprising. It wouldn't be more than 200-plus suicide attacks right now, Rick.

So the levels of violence we're seeing in Iraq is nothing like we're seeing in Afghanistan. However, that being said, the situation in Afghanistan certainly in the last two years has gone from not particularly good to something that looks a little bit like today, which is something that raises some serious questions about security. Not just in Afghanistan but in the capital city itself.

SANCHEZ: Peter Bergen, important, comparative analysis that you bring us. Thank you for being with us on this really busy news night.

Steve Coll and Peter Bergen on CNN's Late Edition | Interview on Osama bin Laden

Communications — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 07:24:00 -0400

New America in the News:

CNN's Late Edition | Interview on Osama bin Laden

WOLF BLITZER (Host): Six-and-a-half years after 9/11, Osama bin Laden is still in hiding and a grave danger to the United States. What drives him? And what can we predict about what he might do next? For some answers we turn to two men for special insight. Steve Coll's new book is entitled, "The Bin Ladens." He's joining us from Berlin. And with her in Washington, our CNN terrorism analyst, Peter Bergen, his book is entitled "The Osama Bin Laden I Know." Thanks to both of you very much for coming. A quick question on the news today, Hamid Karzai, Steve Coll, apparently an assassination attempt in Kabul today by Taliban, perhaps al Qaeda elements. He survived. Others weren't so lucky. What's the latest in terms of the hunt for bin Laden? Is the U.S. and the West any closer to finding him?

STEVE COLL (President, CEO of New America Foundation): Well, I'm not aware of any specific intelligence that has lit up the trail in the last six months or so, but the circumstances in which he's hiding have changed. And he's probably in Pakistan and there his popularity has declined considerably, and also you've got a new government in power, so the motivations on the Pakistani side are changing very quickly.

BLITZER: What do you think, Peter?

PETER BERGEN (New America's Schwartz Senior Fellow): Yes, I think the hunt for bin Laden is going very poorly. As Steve said, bin Laden's support is evaporating in the North-West Frontier Province, where he's almost certainly hiding. A recent poll showed he had dropped from 70 percent favorable in August of 2007 to 4 percent.

BLITZER: So wouldn't that make it easier for Pakistani or other -- or the U.S., Afghan troops, somebody to find him?

PETER BERGEN: Yes. And I think the short answer is yes. Also a very sharp decline in support for suicide bombings amongst Pakistanis. Unfortunately, on the other hand, you have got a Pakistani government which is doing a deal with some of the militants in the North-West Frontier Province at the same time. So as always, sort of a mixed message here with the Pakistanis.

BLITZER: You had written, and I'll read the quote to you here from a piece, Steve, in The Los Angeles Times back on April 13th. You wrote: "Bin Laden may well understand what many Americans do not, that he's more likely to be killed or captured during the next year or so than at any time since late 2001 when he escaped U.S. war planes bombing him in eastern Afghanistan at Tora Bora." Explain what you meant.

STEVE COLL: Well, the first and most important factor is the one that Peter cited, which is that the popularity that he enjoys in the area where he's almost certainly hiding has collapsed, and the way these hunts have always ended in the past in Pakistan -- or almost always, is that somebody has dropped a dime on the fugitive, and it just seems entirely logical that this is more likely now than it was when his favorability ratings were in the 70s.

I also think that the new government in Pakistan, although they have just cut a deal with the Ayatollah Massoud, that raises questions about their strategy. And nonetheless they come to office with a different set of motivations than President Musharraf had.

The U.S., perhaps unintentionally, got itself into a perverse situation with Musharraf in which the structure of its aid almost incented the high command of the Pakistani army not to find bin Laden, because then their rent that they were charging the United States would be cut off or reduced.

And here you've got a democratic government that argued in Washington vehemently that they'd be a better counterinsurgency and better counterterrorism partner than Musharraf. Finding bin Laden would certainly be a way to demonstrate that and I think some of them are aware that they would be rewarded rather than punished if they succeeded.

BLITZER: Well, that's an optimistic assessment, Peter, that perhaps we could wake up one morning in the not-too-distant future and hear the words "bin Laden captured or killed." Is that something that would shock you?

PETER BERGEN: Well, one day it's inevitable because he's a human being and a human being makes mistakes. And I think, again, Steve is completely correct. The political winds have shifted in a way which is quite damaging to al Qaeda and the Taliban itself in Pakistan. So one can only hope.

BLITZER: Here is a quote from bin Laden in a statement he released last March 20th, Steve. And I'll read it to you. "The nearest jihad battlefield to support our people in Palestine is the battlefield of Iraq. The people of the blessed land should sense the great favor God has bestowed upon them and do what they should do to support their mujahedeen brothers in Iraq."

How important to bin Laden is what's going on in Iraq right now?

STEVE COLL: Well, I think it's one of three or four countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, where he sees his followers in action, and -- but the statement itself is the broader significance of his importance now. He may have a small operational role when operatives from Europe reach the border and plan attacks in Europe.

But mostly what he's doing is narrating the war that he believes he's leading. And when narrates that war, he tries to send a message to his followers to motivate them, to remind them of what the most important targets are.

Sometimes these followers act even when they have no contact with him. So I think that's the significance of his role now is his ability to communicate and also the continuity of leadership that he provides symbolically and actually to al Qaeda. This is an organization that has had the same two leaders in place for 20 years now, never been tested by a succession crisis.

BLITZER: He's talking about Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian number two. Do you agree with that assessment, Peter?

PETER BERGEN: Yes. I mean, it's quite unusual for a terrorist organization that is about to celebrate its 20th anniversary this year. They've been quite successful, and both the leaders are still in charge of the organization. BLITZER: Here is a quote from your new book "The Bin Ladens," Steve, and I'll read it to you. We'll put it up on the screen, page 569: "He mocked his Western adversaries for misunderstanding him as a pre-modern fanatic, a bearded loner in a far away cave. He saw himself instead as a master of global technology and change." Explain your point.

STEVE COLL: Well, I think in the West we've had a tendency to locate Osama in our minds as a backward looking, long-bearded, medieval sort of character, when in fact his success has been a product of his grasp and use of modernization, particularly the technologies of global integration.

His first great innovation as a terrorist leader was to use a satellite phone to carry out simultaneous attacks on two U.S. embassies in Africa while never leaving Afghanistan. And he has also used the media, satellite television, and, of course, aviation to innovate.

And so I think it's just important to understand that's who he is. That presumably would help figure out -- aid the effort to contain and defeat him.

BLITZER: Steve Coll's new book is entitled "The Bin Ladens." Steve, thanks for coming in. Peter Bergen has got a good book entitled, "The Bin Laden I know." Thanks to you, as usual, as well.

Jeffrey Lewis on NPR | Syria Revelation Could Affect N. Korea Nuclear Talks

Communications — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:26:00 -0400

New America in the News:

NPR | Syria Revelation Could Affect N. Korea Nuclear Talks

. . . But it remains to be seen whether Thursday's intelligence briefing in Congress will help or hinder the negotiations.

Jeffrey Lewis, who runs the Web site armscontrolwonk.com, says it's clear that the briefing is meant to undermine the negotiations.

"Members of Congress who have been pushing hardest to have this information declassified — or at least put out into the public domain in some form or another — are those who want to make the point that North Korea can't be trusted," Lewis says. . .

Steve Coll on Book TV | After Words Interview on "The bin Ladens"

Communications — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 12:28:00 -0400

New America in the News:

Book TV | After Words Interview on "The bin Ladens"

Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Steve Coll is the author of "Ghost Wars" which looks at Osama bin Laden's time in Afghanistan since the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in the early 1980s. His latest book, "The Bin Ladens," is a history of the bin Laden family and its rise to prominence in Saudi Arabia. Mr. Coll discusses his new book with Michael Scheuer, former head of the bin Laden unit at the CIA.

Steve Coll, formerly a jounalist and managing editor with the Washington Post, is currently the president of the New America Foundation and a staff writer for The New Yorker.

Steve Coll in The Week | Book Review

Communications — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 13:57:00 -0400

New America in the News:

The Week | "The bin Ladens" Reviewed

Osama bin Laden founded al Qaida two months after his oldest brother, Salem, was killed while flying an ultralight in Texas. Salem bin Laden had lived in a world of luxury. As head of the Saudi Arabia–based construction empire their late father had built, Salem enjoyed collecting guitars, cars, and women. To win a bet, he once proposed marriage to four Western girlfriends at once, losing the wager because only three accepted. Despite their lifestyle differences, Mohamed bin Laden’s first- and 17th-born sons remained surprisingly close, says author Steve Coll. Two years before Salem’s 1988 death, the playboy and the prayer leader paired up in London to negotiate an arms deal for Osama’s Afghan fighters. Had Salem lived to wield his influence over his younger brother, Coll says, Osama’s religious radicalism might not have bent itself toward mass terrorism. . .

Military Conflict

Ron Tang — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 07:15:00 -0400

General Richard A. Cody graduated from West Point in 1972, flew helicopters, ascended to command the storied 101st Airborne Division, and then, toward the end of his career, settled into management; now, at fifty-seven, he wears four stars as the Army Vice-Chief of Staff. This summer, he will retire from military service.

In 2004, in a little-noted speech, Cody described the Army’s efforts to adapt to its new commitments. (It was attempting to fight terrorism, quell the Taliban, invade and pacify Iraq, and, at the same time, prepare for future strategic challenges, whether in China or Korea or Africa.) The endeavor… more

Life at Guantánamo Bay

Communications — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 07:15:00 -0400

A New America Event
03/12/2008 - 12:30pm

During the last six years, the U.S. Administration has held nearly 800 alleged terror suspects without trial at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. 500 of these men have now been released, but their stories - and the stories of those who remain - are largely unknown. Fragments have emerged in books and interviews, and in declassified accounts from the detainees' lawyers, but until now there has been no comprehensive overview of all their cases.

On March 12 the New America Foundation hosted a panel discussion featuring Andy Worthington, author of The Guantánamo Files: The stories of the 774 Detainees in America's Illegal Prison and Tom Wilner, attorney for Guantánamo Detainees. New America's Schwartz senior fellow and CNN terrorist analyst Peter Bergen moderated the session.

Andy Worthington began the discussion with a straightforward account of the life conditions for Guantánamo detainees chronicled in his deeply researched book. Deprived of the safeguards of the Geneva Conventions, and for the most part, sold to the Americans by their allies in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the detainees have struggled for five years to have their stories heard by the international community. Worthington analyzed in detail the circumstances of their capture, the coercive interrogations techniques and unsubstantiated allegations used to justify their detention. His book makes the case that while some of the arrests were warranted, the majority of the 773 captured men and boys detained were either Taliban foot soldiers, humanitarian aid workers, economic migrants or religious teachers who were caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Tom Wilner discussed in depth the legal ramifications and the impact of the Guantánamo Bay legal black hole. According to him there is no justifiable reason to deny these men legal rights. The military has clear rules about how to decide whether someone is an enemy combatant or not but there was no sifting process on the ground. Habeas corpus was never applied to the detainees because of Guantánamo no man's land status. He described deeply flawed "Kafka-esque tribunals" in which the prisoners were not allowed legal representation and were prevented from seeing the classified information against them, which often consisted of allegations based on hearsay and torture. 8 of the 12 Kuwaitis he represents were released without explanations of apologies as is always the case.

-Aminatou Sow, Staff Assistant

Extraordinary Rendition

Communications — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 12:15:00 -0500

A New America Event
03/03/2008 - 12:15pm

In 2003, Abu Omar was kidnapped by CIA agents in Italy on suspicion of being involved with al Qaeda. He was transported to Egypt, where he was tortured by Egyptian intelligence services. Abu Omar was later released, only to be recaptured after speaking about his experience in Egypt.

In the latest issue of Mother Jones magazine, New America Fellow Peter Bergen uses Abu Omar's story to explore the CIA's extraordinary rendition program. Bergen also chronicles the rise in extraordinary renditions since 1995 with the help of Program Associate Katherine Tiedemann.

Join the New America Foundation for an in-depth look at extraordinary rendition with Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann. Following the discussion, Mother Jones DC Bureau Chief David Corn will lead a robust Q&A session.

No Torture. No Exceptions.

Ron Tang — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

In a Manhattan courtroom in May 2001, four men were convicted for their roles in al-Qaeda's bombings of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania three years earlier. The evidence against them had been collected without recourse to torture, coercion, or unorthodox interrogation techniques. The attacks had killed a dozen Americans and more than two hundred Africans, and family members of some of the victims attended the trial and testified about the devastating loss of their loved ones.

The trial had other benefits, too: media coverage revealed to the world that al-Qaeda had tried to acquire material for a nuclear… more