US Budget Watch

Guide to Social Security: The 2008 Presidential Election

October 28, 2008 |

Social Security is the single largest government program. In 2007, the program cost $585 billion and provided benefits for roughly 50 million retirees, dependents, survivors, and disabled workers. It is financed primarily through the payroll tax -- a 12.4 percent tax on wages up to $102,000. The tax is split equally between employees and employers. The remaining revenues come mainly from the taxation of Social Security benefits for wealthier recipients.

Next year, the program’s surpluses will begin to decline precipitously. The Social Security Trustees have repeatedly warned that the program is on an unsustainable path and that the system will begin running cash deficits in 2017. The trust funds have claims on government revenues sufficient to pay promised benefits until 2041, but redeeming the trust fund assets will require the government to raise taxes, cut government spending, or borrow. To finance promised benefits, payroll taxes would have to be increased from 12.4 percent today to around 16 percent in 2041 and increase gradually after that. Alternatively, benefits could be cut across the board by roughly 22 percent by 2041, and modestly cut on regular basis thereafter.

Changes will have to be made to Social Security. Ignoring the problem and pushing the necessary changes to a later date — as has been done in past years — only makes them more painful. Although there are hundreds of proposals to address Social Security’s long-term gap, most fall into two basic categories: cutting benefits or raising taxes.

The following table synopsizes the proposals and positions of both presidential candidates on reforming Social Security. For the full text of this paper, please see the PDF copy attached below.


  Barack Obama's Social Security Proposals

 

John McCain's Social Security Proposals

 

Tax Increases Proposes a payroll surtax of 2-4% for individuals making over $250,000 a year. Has not specified the tax base or whether there would be corresponding benefits. States "everything should be on the table" but has expressed strong opposition to raising taxes to increase revenue for Social Security.
Benefit Cuts States "everything should be on the table" but has also argued that "cutting benefits is not the right answer." Would be willing to accept necessary benefit cuts as part of a compromise plan and would consider reducing Social Security's Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs).
Retirement Age Does "not believe it is necessary or fair to hardworking seniors to raise the retirement age" and has stated that he would not do so. Considering a plan that would increase the normal retirement age to 68 from the scheduled age of 67.
Private Accounts Argues strongly against privatization. Supports implementing "Automatic Workplace Pensions" outside of Social Security. Supports "add-on" retirement accounts, but not "as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept."
Bipartisanship Advocates for taking a bipartisan approach to reforming the system. Argues that to reform Social Security, "we should approach it the same way Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan did back in 1983." Points to the 1983 deal between President Reagan and Speaker Tip O'Neill as a model for reform, stating: "I'll reach my hand out to the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. I'll reach my hand out to Harry Reid."
Resolve to Act Is "committed to ensuring Social Security is solvent and viable for the American people, now and in the future." States "it is common sense that we are going to have to do something about [it]." Does not mention Social Security frequently on the campaign trail. States he will "submit a plan to save Social Security... and I'll ask Congress to do the same.... no more kicking the can down the road... no more hoping that a future generation of leaders will have the courage we lack." Does not mention Social Security frequently on the campaign trail.