An Alternate Baseline

As the Committee noted in an earlier release, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) currently projects that—after three consecutive years of decline—the deficit will increase to $219 billion in fiscal year 2008. The CBO baseline also shows the budget returning to surplus in 2012.

CBO projections reflect current law, which does not reflect many likely budget scenarios. Accordingly, this budget update calculates an alternate baseline that incorporates alternate budget scenarios. This baseline does not necessarily reflect the policy path that is likely to occur—the next Administration will most likely enact major changes. But the numbers in this baseline help paint a realistic picture of the current short-term fiscal picture...

For the full text, please see the PDF attached below.