Ankara is currently enjoying a moment of self-satisfaction. Its economy has fared well in recent years, and it maintains friendly relations with nearly all of its feuding neighbors... But these positive developments have led to an inflated sense of confidence in Ankara.
The release last week of a European Commission report highly critical
of Bulgaria's and Romania's progress in their efforts against
corruption serves as a useful reminder that both Brussels and Ankara
should exercise patience while negotiating Turkey's European Union bid.
The Bulgarian and Romanian cases demonstrate that both Europe and its
potential members are best served by an exhaustive, deliberate
accession process.
Negotiations between Turkey and the EU have
slowed recently due to increasing doubts in both Turkey and Europe
about the wisdom of further expansion. Already suffering from
"enlargement fatigue," Europe has seen the economic crisis highlight
its internal divisions, strengthen nationalist sentiment within member
countries, and raise questions about Brussels' ability to make
effective policy. The decision last month to indefinitely postpone
accession negotiations with Croatia is just the latest indication of
Europe's mood. Meanwhile, many Turks have grown impatient with the
accession process and are asking themselves whether they really need
Europe.
But while both sides' concerns are understandable, they are shortsighted.
Full
membership negotiations between Turkey and the EU began in 2005, but
talks have since stalled due to the slow pace of Turkey's reform
program and popular opposition to Turkey's bid within Europe. In a
broad array of areas -- including judicial reform, civil-military
relations, human rights, and press freedoms -- Turkey falls far short
of EU standards and has made little progress for several years. The
Constitutional Court's near-ban of the ruling, moderately Islamic
Justice and Development Party (AKP) last summer for "engaging in
anti-secular activities" signaled a low point in European perceptions
of Turkey's democratic institutions.
Meanwhile, popular
support for accession is waning in both Turkey and Europe. Turks are
frustrated that Brussels has opened negotiations in just 11 of the 35
policy areas that must be completed before Turkey can join. What's
more, they felt insulted by statements from French President Nicolas
Sarkozy and German President Angela Merkel that Turkey will never
become part of Europe and will have to settle for an ill-defined,
unprecedented "privileged partnership" with the union.
At the
same time, Europeans are growing impatient with Turkey's halting reform
efforts. They question the wisdom of extending Europe's borders to the
heart of the Middle East, and worry about the financial costs
associated with incorporating a country as large and relatively poor as
Turkey.
Ankara is currently enjoying a moment of
self-satisfaction. Its economy has fared well in recent years, and it
maintains friendly relations with nearly all of its feuding neighbors.
Turkey's potential as an energy hub, its role as a diplomatic
interlocutor between its neighbors and the West, and President Barack
Obama's high-profile visit in April have further highlighted Turkey's
emergence as a significant regional power.
But these positive
developments have led to an inflated sense of confidence in Ankara.
Turkey lives in a dangerous neighborhood in which it has no natural
allies. And the deep mistrust between the government and the military,
as well as the fact that Turkey's economy contracted 13.8 percent in
the first quarter, reveal that both Turkey's political and economic
systems rest on shaky foundations. In 10 or 20 years, those foundations
are likely to be much sturdier should Turkey remain committed to the
accession process. And Ankara is likely to find itself in a stronger
international position if it enjoys the security and stability that
Europe provides.
Things may look different from Europe's
perspective in a decade or two as well. Europe's population is
declining, and economic growth among the developed, Western European
states is likely to be low. Turkey will be in a position to provide the
labor that Europe needs, while serving as a destination for investment
and an engine for economic growth.
But the benefits that
Turkey offers Europe go beyond economics. Turkey's army -- the
second-largest in NATO -- could play an increasingly significant role
as the United States gradually pulls back from its overseas security
commitments, at the same time that European governments struggle to
modernize their militaries while providing for aging populations.
Incorporating a Muslim country may also help Europe to integrate its
large and growing Muslim minority.
Most importantly, Europe
will have to engage with Turkey as a large, influential country on its
borders whether or not it becomes part of Europe. The accession process
offers Europe the opportunity to ensure that its southern neighbor is
as stable, prosperous, and friendly as possible.
So the
challenge for Ankara, Brussels and European capitals is to get Turkey
to a place where it is prepared to join the Union, even if continuing
the accession negotiations until Turkey is actually ready is a
difficult diplomatic and political dance.
The Turkish
government must remain committed to the reform process and make a
sustained effort to explain to its constituency why membership is so
important -- and that the process will take some time. The common goal
of EU membership is a strong external incentive that can bind together
the various elements within an increasingly divided Turkish society.
Meanwhile, European leaders should leave the door open to membership,
while firmly demanding that all criteria be met, even if it takes many
years. Both Europe and Turkey stand to benefit over the long term if
they can sustain the political will to exercise strategic patience in
their negotiations.
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