Imagine, for a moment, if your family’s loan payments jumped from a quarter or third of your monthly earnings to nearly double that amount? Could you get by? For most American families the answer is unequivocally no, and for most Eastern Europeans the answer will be the same.
A recent survey suggests 37 percent of Britons expect
riots in the next year on account of the financial collapse; in Kiev, Ukrainians have
made runs on major banks, being turned away from even the nation's largest
institutions with empty pockets.
The European Union is ripping apart at its most vulnerable
seam: that between well-established Western economies and former Soviet states
still grappling to build viable capitalist systems.
This week I was in Brussels
for an emergency summit of EU presidents who had gathered to discuss the
worsening economic climate. Debate pitted the East versus the West. But calls
on the region's economic elite -- the likes of Germany,
the United Kingdom and France -- to
act directly to absorb the crisis fell, astonishingly, on deaf ears. A plea
from Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany for a $230 billion aid package
for the fledgling East was reportedly met with literal silence.
While the 27 nations presented a united front in agreeing to
abstain from protectionism, the power players remained steadfast that support
should come from the International Monetary Fund, rather than directly from
their own coffers.
The disaster that's on the verge of showing its full brunt,
though, stems as much from the West of Europe
as from the East. Major banks from within the Eurozone -- those nations
employing the euro as their currency -- have fueled growth in Eastern
Europe in recent years. Austrian, Italian, French, Belgian, German
and Swedish institutions account for 84 percent of loans in Eastern and Central Europe. And that credit was largely given in
euros.
But because of the collapse of local currencies outside the
Eurozone -- some falling by as much as 28 percent to 40 percent -- even those ventures
and households that might otherwise remain stable in a period of decline are
likely to be in serious turmoil.
Loans taken out by Hungarians, Latvians, Ukrainians and
others dashing to achieve living standards comparable with those of Western
Europe were overwhelmingly granted in euros rather than local currencies. Hungary's
central bank says 90 percent of loans awarded to households in 2008 were in
euros or francs. In Latvia,
lending went from 60 percent in foreign currency in 2004 to 90 percent in 2008,
according to the Economist. Recent strikes in Kiev by truck drivers were fueled by the fact
that loans for their trucks had been made in euros rather than hryvnia.
During the boom it made sense to take on credit in more
stable currency than rapidly appreciating local tender. The fact that the
nations in question were on course to join the Eurozone further fueled the
argument that it was safe to borrow in euros. But now the risk is far more
clear.
Imagine, for a moment, if your family's loan payments jumped
from a quarter or third of your monthly earnings to nearly double that amount?
Could you get by? For most American families the answer is unequivocally no,
and for most Eastern Europeans the answer will be the same.
The debts owed by a great number of Eastern Europeans have
thus instantly risen -- and dramatically so. And just as those banks in the United States
that overextended with subprime loans now share the brunt of the American
decline with those that took on the loans, so will those Western European banks
suffer.
So what will this mean? It means the likes of Brown, Merkel
and Sarkozy will need to spend as much time and treasure rescuing their banks
as American political leaders have spent on their own titans. It will also mean
Europe as a whole will shrink as a market for
American goods. And, perhaps most dangerously, it will mean a major collapse of
faith in free market principles and post-Cold War leaders.
But let this be clear: Even if states outside the Eurozone
are host to the looming implosions, Western banks, and therefore citizens to
the west, will not be absolved. The dominoes will fall toward us if we're not
careful, and not listening will no longer be an option.
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