Any terrorist attack is awful news, particularly for a struggling young democracy. But Indonesia's democracy is precisely the reason why there is no danger that the country will turn into another Pakistan.
Indonesia
has had an extraordinarily good run. The Islamist terrorist attack that struck
two international hotels in the heart of Jakarta
won't change that. This was the first successful attack in the country since
2005. That attack followed the spectacular 2002 Bali bombing that killed or
maimed hundreds of tourists, thus bringing what had been America's war on terrorism to Southeast
Asia. The consensus is that Friday's attack was perpetrated by
some of the bedraggled remnants of Jemaah Islamiyah, the local answer to al
Qaeda.
Any terrorist attack is awful news, particularly for a struggling young
democracy. But Indonesia's
democracy is precisely the reason why there is no danger that the country will
turn into another Pakistan.
Indeed, Indonesia
is, despite the latest attack, a rare bright spot in a dreary,
recession-ravaged world. Islamic political movements are free to take part in
the country's free elections. It just happens that they don't do terribly well.
Granted, Indonesia's
Islamist parties are fairly moderate. More extreme elements are even less
popular, which, on reflection, makes sense. As al Qaeda epigones, Jemaah
Islamiyah is devoted to a "purist" interpretation of the Islamic
tradition, which deems Indonesia's
tolerant local varieties of Islam to be obscene deviations from the one true
way and must be destroyed. This is a bit like telling Americans that all those
who watch and enjoy the Super Bowl should be lashed until they bleed.
The fact that Indonesia,
a sprawling, diverse, densely packed archipelago with a population of almost
240 million, hasn't fallen apart since independence is a minor miracle. For
most of Indonesia's
post-independence history, this unlikely unity was undergirded by the strength
of a brutal and corrupt military elite, who waged their own campaign of
terrorist intimidation against the Timorese and other minority populations.
Just as the overthrow of Tito led to the slow and bloody unraveling of
Yugoslavia, many feared that the passing of Suharto, the man who modernized
Indonesia while looting prodigious sums, would result in unending ethnic and
religious war.
Yet Indonesia
has avoided that fate, thanks in part to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a general
and erstwhile Suharto loyalist just reelected to the presidency. One of
Yudhoyono's central accomplishments has been cracking down on terrorist
violence. For example, the long-running insurgency in Aceh, home to the
country's most zealous Islamists, has drawn to a close. Rather than crush the
movement through the indiscriminate use of force, Yudhoyono sapped its support
by granting autonomy and revenue-sharing so that locals could benefit from rich
natural-gas deposits, and also by dint of a highly successful response to the
devastating 2004 tsunami.
Yudhoyono is hardly a saint. But given his personal appeal, it's easy to
imagine him as a Javanese Hugo Chavez or Vladimir Putin, hellbent on maximizing
his power. Instead, Yudhoyono has worked to strengthen Indonesia's
democracy, which by some standards is now the most robust in the region. The
hotel bombing is a serious black eye for Yudhoyono, but it doesn't change the
fact that, to put it bluntly, the world needs more Yudhoyonos.
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