One of the greatest accomplishments of the first several months of
Barack Obama's presidency has been the near-total marginalization of
the Republican right. Rather than developing a coherent alternative to
the president's agenda, the right has descended to frantic, tone-deaf
cries of "socialism," has allowed some of the least popular figures in
public life--Dick Cheney, Newt Gingrich--to be their spokespeople,
and most recently, seems to have staked everything on a defense of the
previous administration's most disgraceful (and, incidentally,
unpopular) conduct.
Even moderate Republicans, such as Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois, seem
to have waded deep into the crazy swamp. Kirk, a Senate hopeful who
once bragged to me that he had worked for George Soros on a
humanitarian project in the Balkans, recently denounced a proposal to
increase a state tax by 1.5 percentage points: "The people of Illinois
are ready to shoot anyone who is going to raise taxes by that degree."
Mistaking the small rallies called "tea parties" for actual backlash,
one Republican bragged to Politico that opposing a yet-unnamed
Supreme Court nominee would bring them back to power, "just as we
helped ourselves by opposing the [economic] stimulus."
But as the right has taken its rhetoric and self-delusion to 11, its
popularity, credibility, and congressional power have sunk to
unprecedented lows. (There have been fewer Republicans in Congress
before, but that was back when Southern conservatives were still
Democrats.)
None of this was inevitable. Self-marginalizing insanity is not an
inherent Republican trait. When historians are finished writing
countless books in awe of the rise of the right, they will turn to its
abrupt decline and find it one of the most puzzling questions in
political history.
One answer--and the reason I called it an "accomplishment"--is
that Obama's approach to partisanship helped marginalize the right.
Often seen as a naive assumption of bipartisan cooperation, Obama's
invitation to Republicans to join in governing and offer their best
ideas was instead a brilliant calling out of a faction that was
prepared only to oppose. (Hence the right's gleeful anticipation of a
fight over a Supreme Court nomination, which is a pure yes-no choice.)
Going a few years further back, the explanation for Republican
decline may lie in the strategy of governing adopted when the right was
in power. With a narrow majority based in the white South, and with
demographic trends running against them, the Republicans pulled out all
the stops and tried to wring every possible advantage from the moment,
a strategy exemplified by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's
"majority of a majority" rule, under which he would refuse to bring to
the floor any legislation that wasn't supported by a majority of
Republicans, blocking many bipartisan coalitions. Trained to govern in
this desperate, high-stakes mode, the Republicans have no ability to
step back into the role of a constructive minority that actually tries
to collaborate in governing. They governed more like a high-flying
hedge fund than an investor with a long view. In opposition, they take
the same approach.
A third explanation is suggested by the obituaries in early May for
former Rep. Jack Kemp. Kemp was in many ways a disappointing,
incoherent, manic figure who, like Newt Gingrich, mistook slogans for
ideas, but he very much represented the path not taken for the
Republican right. That path was one of racially and culturally
inclusive conservatism, based on an ideal of broadly shared economic
opportunity and security.
Given the cultural conservatism of many African American and
Hispanic voters, and the aspirational values of most families,
conservatives could have had a chance to construct a durable coalition
around Kemp's values. If Republicans could get even a third of the
African American vote and retain the 40 percent of Hispanic votes they
reached in 2004, the entire map of American politics would be
different. It's likely that a more racially inclusive politics would be
more appealing to younger voters as well. But Republicans didn't do it,
and now it's too late.
Why did the right not take the path Kemp offered? Perhaps the
party's mostly Southern leaders just didn't get it or didn't want a
racially inclusive party. Maybe they would have lost more white votes
in the process. Or perhaps the whole idea was doomed by its
incoherence, and what Kemp really had to offer was liberalism combined
with massive tax cuts.
We'll never know, because the right chose a different path.
Conservatives, or at least the Republican Party, will return to power,
but not until they show some curiosity about their mistakes.
Please log in below through Disqus, Twitter or Facebook to participate in the conversation. Your email address, which is required for a Disqus account, will not be publicly displayed. If you sign in with Twitter or Facebook, you have the option of publishing your comments in those streams as well.
Your tax-deductible gift will help bring promising new voices and ideas into our nation's discourse, and help shape the future of vital public policies.
Join the Conversation
Please log in below through Disqus, Twitter or Facebook to participate in the conversation. Your email address, which is required for a Disqus account, will not be publicly displayed. If you sign in with Twitter or Facebook, you have the option of publishing your comments in those streams as well.