Speech's Key Words Reveal Balancing Act

January 16, 2009 |
Part of what makes a speech "Democratic" or "Republican" is the specific words that governors employ.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger billed this year's State of the State speech as "untraditional." To be sure, evoking Conan's sword, as he did in his most memorable line, is quite original.

Evoking Reagan and Obama to start a political speech, however, is par for the political course. And there is no more conventional way to conclude an address than by praising state heroes who have fallen in the line of duty. The speech was also similar to other State of the State addresses that Arnold has delivered as Conan's pen wrote a speech that was relatively Democratic.

Part of what makes a speech "Democratic" or "Republican" is the specific words that governors employ. In Schwarzenegger's speech this year, there was much for Democrats to like as he called out the importance of "education," "jobs," and "clean air" in addition to "safety." And it may not be lost on Republicans that in an address entirely focused on the budget, the word "taxes" appears only once. Governors who want to connect with Republicans in their states mention taxes frequently, as it is an extremely salient buzzword for the party.

It turns out to be tremendously important whether a governor is skilled at using partisan rhetoric that clearly telegraphs that he is on the side of the partisan majority. That's how minority party governors such as Schwarzenegger are able to survive and, sometimes, to thrive. But here's the kicker: The language that governors use is more important to their political success than are the policy decisions that they make.

I conducted an analysis of the rhetoric of 97 governors that compared the language in their speeches to that of national party platforms. It showed that approval ratings were higher, chances of re-election greater and margins of victory larger if governors used partisan language that appealed to the political majority in their states. On the other hand, the actual fiscal policy changes they presided over had no discernable effect on their political fortunes.

So if you're a governor in a Republican state, it is not necessary to actually cut taxes in order to be successful, but you'd better talk about cutting taxes as frequently as you can. And in a Democratic state, you need not succeed in expanding state programs, but you had better say that you're planning on doing so.

Language pertaining to government spending is not the only part of what determines the partisan nature of a governor's speech. In fact, out of more than 12,000 unique words that contributed to the measurement, the three most influential Democratic words were "you," "our," and "we." The three most influential Republican words: "I," "my," and "state."

That these pronouns emerge as critical is no surprise. Democrats have long emphasized the collective good, Republicans individual responsibility. In this year's speech, Schwarzenegger said, "There is no course left open to us but this: to work together, to sacrifice together, to think of the common good – not our individual good."

This is boilerplate Democratic language. He mentioned the need for "sacrifice," but did not map out the road to economic recovery as one that relied heavily on the individual.

Schwarzenegger cannot run for re-election. But Californians will have many more opportunities to weigh in on whether they support his actions. Will we pay attention to what he says or to what he does?

History suggests that the pen is mightier than the sword, meaning that governors' statements are more important than their actions. But our state cannot afford to get caught up in the interminable drama of partisan rhetoric and political posturing at this critical time. We must pay close attention to everything that our governor and legislative leaders are doing, not just what they say they are doing. Otherwise, the sword will fall on us.

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