After the twin conflicts of Iraq and Afghanistan, the more than 5,000 American troops killed, the hundreds of billions -- even trillions -- of dollars spent, it's hard to imagine a strategic doctrine that is more appropriate.
Once upon a time, there was a grand and influential foreign policy doctrine. It
was based on some traditional notions about U.S.
statecraft that placed severe constraints on when America went to war. It asserted
that when the United States
used military force, it must do so in overwhelming fashion and only in the
service of vital national interests. For any military action, it counseled the
dispassionate weighing of costs and benefits, recommended that policymakers
have clear, realistic and achievable political objectives, and called for the
strong support of the American people and a clearly defined exit strategy.
This doctrine was called the Powell Doctrine, and it was based, in large
measure, on a long-simmering debate in the military about how, when and where
the United States
should use force. While many in the military thought it was great, a lot of
other folks hated it.
Liberal hawks were none too pleased because it precluded humanitarian
interventions. During the Clinton
administration, when then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Colin
Powell (for whom the doctrine was named) argued forcefully against military
adventurism to stop the bloodletting in the Balkans, Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright demanded, "What's the point of having this superb
military that you're always talking about if we can't use it?"
For neoconservatives, the Powell Doctrine was anathema because it precluded the
sort of wars of choice and the muscular military strategy that they favored.
Adherence to the Powell Doctrine made the notion of transformative military
conflict virtually impossible.
In the 1990s, the liberal interventionists worked to soften the Doctrine's hard
edges. While they abided by the notion that the United States must avoid long,
drawn-out conflicts, they advocated utilizing force without clear political
objectives, with only fleeting public support, and under a dubious
interpretation of the national interest.
In the post-9/11 strategic environment, the Powell Doctrine was cast aside
entirely. The subsequent invasion of Iraq violated virtually every one
of its tenets. That its namesake, Colin Powell, was serving as U.S. Secretary
of State at the time is perhaps the Doctrine's greatest and most disturbing
irony.
More than a quarter-century after it first entered the strategic consciousness
of the U.S.
national security bureaucracy, we don't hear much about the Powell Doctrine
anymore. It has seemingly become a precious artifact of a bygone era in U.S.
statecraft.
Yet, the lack of attention today to the key attributes of the Powell Doctrine
is difficult to understand. After the twin conflicts of Iraq and Afghanistan, the more than 5,000
American troops killed, the hundreds of billions -- even trillions -- of
dollars spent, it's hard to imagine a strategic doctrine that is more
appropriate.
Unfortunately, the lesson seemingly being drawn from these two wars is not that
the U.S. must avoid the sort
of draining, manpower-intensive and time-consuming counterinsurgency operations
that have defined the U.S.
missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Instead, the moral of Iraq
and Afghanistan seems to be
that the United States
must learn to fight these types of conflicts more effectively, because they are
the future of war.
Meanwhile, the lessons of the Powell Doctrine and a restrained notion of when
military force should be exercised are gathering cobwebs in the U.S. strategic
toolbox. The time has come, however, to dust off this old war horse, because it
is perhaps more relevant and timely than ever.
The Legacy of Vietnam
The Powell Doctrine emerged out of the Vietnam War, and specifically the belief
by many in the military that U.S.
troops should never again be asked to fight a similar type of conflict. Its
antecedents can be found in the "Never Again vs. Limited War" debates
of the 1950s and 1960s, following America's experience in the Korean
War. The Never Again side argued that the U.S. should either do everything
necessary to win future wars or not fight them at all -- that is, total war or
none at all. The Limited War advocates argued that the U.S. could expect a future of limited regional
wars, like Korea,
so it was best to be prepared for them. The Vietnam War, while offering support
to the Limited War advocates' analysis on a tactical level, ultimately made the
strategic argument of the Never Again camp even more resonant.
A decade later, the ill-fated U.S.
intervention in Lebanon
in 1983 exemplified the pitfalls of an open-ended approach to the use of
military force. Sent to perform "peacekeeping" duties in the midst of
a five-sided ethnic conflict, the U.S. quickly found itself taking
sides. Soon after, 241 Marines would be killed when a suicide bomber attacked
their barracks.
The Lebanon debacle led
then-Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger to
update the Never Again argument in a speech to the National Press Club in Washington, where he
offered a new and more restrained construct for the future use of American
military force. Weinberger laid out six clear criteria that he believed should
guide policymakers' decision-making:
1) The United States
should not commit forces to combat overseas unless the particular engagement or
occasion is deemed vital to our national interest or that of our allies.
2) If we decide it is necessary to put combat troops into a given situation, we
should do so wholeheartedly, and with the clear intention of winning.
3) If we do decide to commit forces to combat overseas, we should have clearly
defined political and military objectives.
4) The relationship between our objectives and the forces we have committed --
their size, composition and disposition -- must be continually reassessed and
adjusted if necessary.
5) Before the U.S.
commits combat forces abroad, there must be some reasonable assurance we will
have the support of the American people and their elected representatives in
Congress.
6) The commitment of U.S.
forces to combat should be a last resort.
Weinberger's doctrine, which had strong support among the uniformed military, was fleshed otu further by Colin Powell in 1992. But the bottom line remained
unchanged: The criteria for the use of force must be stringent, and the full
consequence of what military action would entail must be carefully considered.
Embrace and Then Pushback
The test case for the Powell Doctrine would be the First Gulf War of 1990-1991,
which embraced several of its key attributes: domestic and overseas support --
military action was endorsed by a U.N. mandate; clear political and military
objectives -- removal of Saddam Hussein from Kuwait; the use of force as a last
resort -- diplomatic negotiations continued until the last minute; and a level
of force committed to battle that was more than commensurate to the goals that
the United States was seeking to achieve. Perhaps most questionable was the
notion that the liberation of Kuwait
fell within America's
national interests. But it was hard to argue with the success of a military endeavor
that achieved its immediate goals and was completed within 100 hours.
Over the next dozen years, leading policymakers would nibble away at the
constraints put in place by the Doctrine. In Somalia, for instance, the military
mission was initially dedicated to providing humanitarian relief for starving
refugees. But it eventually evolved into a nation-building exercise, in which
the military became directly involved in the internal politics of what was, by
all accounts, a non-functioning state. The result was depressingly similar to
the carnage in Lebanon.
Nineteen dead U.S. soldiers
and the televised images of their bodies being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu quickly ended the U.S. misadventure in the Horn of
Africa.
In the Balkans, liberal hawks would again push for the use of force. But fear
of a repeat of Mogadishu and the uncertainty about what military intervention
could hope to achieve in the midst of a multi-ethnic civil war stifled the
calls. Even so, in March 1996, National Security Adviser Tony Lake laid out an updated version
of the Powell Doctrine that advocated the selective but substantial use of
force in support of diplomatic or political objectives. Lake was careful,
though, to formalize a new constraint: "Before we send our troops into a
foreign country, we should know how and when we're going to get them out."
Under the umbrella leadership of NATO, such a selective use of force was
utilized in Kosovo. Once again, the fear of involving U.S. forces in a long,
drawn-out conflict limited the role played by ground troops. But what was
perhaps most significant about the Clinton years was the increasingly elastic
definition of America's national interests. While Weinberger and Powell had
advocated the use of force only in defense of U.S. vital national interests,
the 90s saw force being used in places where the direct impact on America's
national interests was more difficult to decipher.
Perhaps some loosening of the Powell Doctrine's constraints was in order. As
long as policymakers were cognizant of the risks, the selective application of
force could bring positive results -- as was seen, to a limited extent, in the
Balkans, and against Iraq in 1998. But it was a slippery slope, and as time
would soon tell, one that could easily be exploited at a time of national
trauma.
The Post 9/11 Environment
In the aftermath of 9/11, the restraints imposed by the Powell Doctrine were
summarily cast aside. Emboldened by a surrounding cadre of neo-conservatives,
for whom the use of U.S. military force was a vital tool of national
statecraft, President George W. Bush quickly became a proponent of military intervention and nation building, despite having warned about the perils of such endeavors as a
candidate. In Afghanistan, Bush pledged to "continue helping [Afghans]
secure their country, rebuild their society and educate all their children,
boys and girls." Only weeks after this almost-casual declaration, the U.S.
would invade and occupy another Muslim country.
The strategic planning behind the invasion and occupation of Iraq represented
the antithesis of the Powell Doctrine. In the spring of 2003, there was no
clear political objective to the war in Iraq, only the tactical objective of
removing Saddam Hussein from power. Non-violent measures or even alternative
force packages were not considered. Indeed, even non-military measures that had
begun to show effectiveness -- for instance, U.N. inspectors that the Iraqi
regime reluctantly allowed back into the country -- were ignored or
disregarded. Virtually no thought was given to the long-term consequences of
invading and occupying Iraq. According to the Army's official history of the war,
"There was no adequate operational plan for stability operations and
support operations." The war barely had majority public support in the
U.S., and by its later stages was deeply unpopular, while key allies were
opposed to it from the outset. Finally, there was no exit strategy in place for
the departure of U.S. troops.
That the war in Iraq bore striking similarities to the debacle in Vietnam was
hardly a coincidence. Like Vietnam, the Iraq war was fought on a foundation of
shaky political and military assumptions that failed to adequately consider the
full consequences of going to war. As Clausewitz might have suggested, "No
one starts a war -- or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so -- without
first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war, and how
he intends to conduct it." But that is precisely what the United States
did in Iraq.
On a deeper level, what these two wars have in common with each other -- and
with Lebanon, Somalia and even Afghanistan -- is that, as
Michael J. Mazarr suggests, "such conflicts will inevitably be
strictly limited for the United States, whereas for its enemies, they will
often approach absolute warfare." Rarely considered in all these
conflicts, was the political will, devotion and even fanaticism of potential
rivals, as well as their patience for armed conflict. Perhaps the most
important, yet unstated element of the Powell Doctrine was the understanding
that open-ended conflicts defined by anti-guerrilla and counterinsurgent
operations were rarely in the U.S. national interest, because the political will
to see such conflicts to the end was in short supply on the U.S. side -- and in
great supply among its enemies.
Lessons Unlearned
One might imagine that after Iraq -- a military and political debacle on a par
with Vietnam -- the military and civilian leadership would be running with open
arms to embrace a doctrine that keeps them out of protracted conflicts with
undefined political objectives that do not serve the national interest.
Yet, the exact opposite is occurring. If there are any lessons to be learned
from the first four years of the Iraq War, they are that force must be a last
resort, that the United States is ill-equipped to do effective and long-term
nation-building, that military incursions must be limited and that they must be
combined with a clear and realistic political objective. But instead, many in
the military and civilian leadership are focusing on the transitory success of
the past two years in Iraq. They argue that the counterinsurgency techniques
used there not only stabilized the situation in Iraq, but are applicable to
future conflicts like the ongoing war in Afghanistan.
Even setting aside the fact that the claims of success for counterinsurgency
tactics in Iraq are incomplete and premature at best, it is inexplicable that debate
is so rare over whether a robust counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan is
worth the necessary blood and treasure, and whether it serves the national
interest.
Consider
the words of a key advocate of counterinsurgency, John Nagl, president of
CNAS and co-author of the Army and Marines counterinsurgency manual, FM 3-24:
After Vietnam, the phrase "never again" meant many
things to many people, but generally indicated the Army should never again
fight a protracted war without the support of the American people. Today, we
should continue to vow "never again" -- but this time, that we never
again focus so exclusively on preparations to decisively defeat any enemy on
the conventional battlefield that we neglect to achieve the same degree of
proficiency in winning the peace that follows. Sept. 11 conclusively
demonstrated that instability anywhere can be a real threat to the American
people here at home. Defeating instability through effective counterinsurgency
operations is therefore a core mission of the Defense Department. We must take
counterinsurgency as seriously as we take ensuring success in major combat
operations.
It is difficult to accept the notion that counterinsurgency is or should be a
core mission of the military. But perhaps an even more important question for
policymakers to ask is whether the U.S. should be fighting
counterinsurgencies at all.
Instead, criticism of the U.S.
decision to go to war in Iraq
in the first place has been replaced with an altogether different critique:
that the U.S. military
forgot the lessons of counterinsurgency learned in Vietnam and earlier conflicts. As a
result, the military was ill-prepared for the counterinsurgent and pacification
campaigns it faced in Iraq.
While this is a legitimate critique, it misses the bigger picture. Instead of
addressing the strategic flaws that underpinned the pre-war planning for Iraq, many students of the Iraq war are
instead confining their examination to a question of tactics. But the central
problem with the Iraq War is not how the United States chose to fight it.
Rather, it's that the United
States chose to fight it at all.
As
the CATO Institute notes "What Iraq demonstrates is a need for a
new national security strategy, not better tactics and tools to serve the
current one. By insisting that there was a right way to remake Iraq, we ignore
the limits on our power that the enterprise has exposed and we risk repeating
our mistake."
Who Gets the Vote
Some advocates for counterinsurgency suggest that the so-called Long War
against jihadist terrorists will necessitate more, not less, intervention.
These arguments often minimize the very agency of the United States
in determining when and how it goes to war. According to Max Boot, "Unfortunately, the United States cannot determine the nature of its
future wars; the enemy has a vote, and the more evident the U.S. inability
to deal with guerrilla or terrorist tactics, the more prevalent those tactics
will become."
But guerrilla tactics are generally utilized against U.S.
forces only after a U.S.
military intervention has occurred. As
Andrew Bacevich perceptively argues, "If counterinsurgency is useful
chiefly for digging ourselves out of holes we shouldn't be in, then why not
simply avoid the holes? Why play al-Qaida's game? Why persist in waging the
Long War when that war makes no sense?"
Boot goes even further, though, arguing that "defeating terrorism, as Washington has learned in Afghanistan, requires putting boots
on the ground and engaging in nation building." By this argument, the only
appropriate response to terrorist provocation is to slug it out in foreign
lands and "remake entire societies," a course of action that plays
directly into the hands of America's
enemies. There is, according to Boot, virtually no middle course.
But while America's enemies
might get a vote on the nature of future wars, the United States has a veto on whether
or not to engage in them. Those who would argue that the United States must
continue to chase terrorists around the globe with fulsome military
interventions, as opposed to seeking a policy of containment, might want to
consider the trillions already spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention
the deaths of more than 5,000 American soldiers, in pursuit of just such a
strategy.
Restoring the Advisory Role in Civil-Military Relations
Many of the counterinsurgency advocates have argued that the type of
counterinsurgency operations necessary for fighting the Long War are difficult,
but that the military must be prepared for them if the President requests such
an operation. But this can easily become a self-perpetuating argument.
It's worth remembering that the architects of the Powell Doctrine came out of
the military. They pushed civilian policymakers to see the benefits of placing
more stringent constraints on the use of military force. The military's job is,
of course, to carry out the orders of the commander-in-chief, but this does not
mean the armed forces can simply cast aside their advisory role to the civilian
leadership.
Rather than devoting so much energy to preparing the military to fight
counterinsurgency, such advocates should be patiently explaining all the many
reasons why we should avoid them at all costs. Instead, they are orienting army
doctrine and key resources toward counterinsurgency, and making it the guiding
logic of America's mission
in Afghanistan.
The danger is that they convince policymakers, whether intentionally or not,
that we're so good at these types of operations, we should be doing more rather
than less of them.
If the experiences of the past eight years have taught us anything, it is that
the bar for overseas intervention should be returned to the level suggested by
Powell and Weinberger. The Iraq War, in particular, is an object lesson in the
limits and efficacy of American power, and the ineffectiveness of military
force in fighting non-state actors, such as terrorists.
Some have argued that since you can't predict the future of war, the U.S. must be
prepared for the full spectrum of possible conflicts. But while the future may
be unknowable, the criteria by which we use force need not be. The United States
must prepare for the conflicts that are not only in the country's vital
interests, but that it can also bring to a satisfactory conclusion. That's the
essence of the Powell Doctrine, and why it deserves reconsideration. To be
sure, this doesn't mean a slavish devotion to the criteria outlined by either
Weinberger or Powell. There will always be times when the limited use of force
is appropriate. But it does mean a far more rigorous consideration of costs and
benefits, as well as the national interest, before such force is employed.
If recent history teaches us anything, it is that the use of American military
force can and usually does engender its own set of unintended and unexpected
consequences. The fact that America's fighting men and women continue to die in
Iraq and Afghanistan nearly eight years after the attacks of Sept. 11 is
perhaps the most compelling and tragic reminder of that fact.
In the haunting movie, Fog of War, former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara
spoke eloquently about the basic, unknowable element of human conflict.
"War is so complex, it's beyond the ability of the human mind to
comprehend all the variables. Our judgment, our understanding, are not
adequate. And we kill people unnecessarily." It's a lesson worth
remembering as the United
States begins to think about a post-Iraq and
even a post-Afghanistan future.
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