Last month's dismal unemployment numbers were a clarion call for American workers to remind the administration of President Obama to heed the call of candidate Obama, and in all facets make high-quality and balanced job growth the long-term emphasis of the economic revitalization policy.
We are a full year removed from the September 15, 2008, bankruptcy
of Lehman Brothers, which sent the global financial system into a
tailspin, and yet just 10 days removed from one of the most dismal
unemployment reports in 80 years.
On the one hand, this is no
kind of celebratory one-year "anniversary," if you want to call it
that, and it was certainly no kind of Labor Day either. And they are
related.
Early in last year's presidential campaign,
then-candidate Barack Obama forcefully put forward and embraced, as one
of the dominant themes of his entire campaign, an economic recovery
plan based on "smart trade policies and fair rules for the global
economy."
No one should ever dispute how much harder President
Obama's economic recovery task became with the massive meltdown of the
financial markets just a few months later, in the last throes of the
Bush administration, or the urgency for the new administration to step
up and right the financial ship.
But somehow in the transition
from campaign to administration, the focus on employing and
invigorating Main Street--which we understood from candidate Obama
would never take a back seat even to the looming important bank
solvency issues--got pushed far behind resuscitating Wall Street.
What happens when you diminish job creation as a driving economic focus
became obvious with confirmation, just as the Labor Day weekend began,
that the U.S. economy
is now deep in the midst of a "jobless recovery," with nearly 30
million American workers effectively unemployed, of whom 8.5 million
have been out of work for more than six months.
The effective unemployment rate in the country today is a staggering 18.6 percent, not the Bureau of
Labor Statistics' official 9.7 percent, because there are now an
unprecedented 14.8 million workers who are part-time of necessity,
marginally attached or who have left the workforce out of frustration.
For every unemployed worker in America who is counted, there is, for
the first time ever, another un- or under-employed worker who is not,
and none of these figures include the 3.5 million to 5 million young
people also out of work.
And in a stark sign that the recession
is now inflicting severe pain on the employed as well as the jobless,
the number of working Americans turning to free government food stamps
has surged. With the average full-time worker working only 33.1 hours a
week, which is virtually the lowest on record, some 40 percent of the
families currently on food stamps have "earned income," the Financial
Times reported.
Undeniably, America's economic prosperity
depends primarily on a strong and large middle class growing from the
bottom up, and for the 30 years following the end of the World War II,
business, labor and government leaders commonly understood this and
committed themselves to such an outcome. They also understood the
imperative of a national economy that is, on the one hand, relatively
balanced between manufacturing and services and, on the other, not
dominated by Wall Street's extreme wealth creation for just a few "masters of the universe."
American workers are the most productive in the world, and when they
compete on level playing fields, they do so ably. But now, they have to
compete every day against illegal foreign subsidies, currency
manipulation and shameful environmental practices, which swamp all
principles of fair comparative advantage. As a consequence:
Millions of manufacturing jobs have been needlessly offshored in the last two decades;
Manufacturing industries now represent just 11.5 percent of gross
domestic product, or GDP, versus 26 percent right after WW II;
The number of people working in manufacturing accounts for only 9 percent of the nonfarm jobs in the country;
We have run an average trade deficit just in manufactured goods of
more than $500 billion a year over the last five years; and
Now, even high-quality service jobs are at least as much at risk of
being offshored, as India and China are especially keen on seeing such
jobs domiciled on their own shores.
Manufacturing needs to again
be responsible for at least 20 percent of GDP, the level it was at
before 1980. Service jobs do very little to help the U.S. balance of
trade and mostly just move incomes around the country. And
manufacturing has by far the largest multiplier effect of all job
sectors, creating $1.40 of additional economic activity for each $1 of
direct spending and 2.5 other jobs on average for each job in the
sector, according to the Milken Institute.
Without a much
improved ratio of manufacturing to services and the dramatic
improvement which that would bring to overall unemployment, the current
recession will be much prolonged and will probably "feed back" unto
itself as factors that defined the original downturn, such as credit
defaults and mortgage delinquencies, recur. We will not be able to
change America's sorry status as the world's largest debtor nation,
budget slashing by states and municipalities will continue, America's
human capital will continue to deteriorate, and we will struggle
greatly as a nation to pay for needed health care, energy and Social
Security reforms.
We were delighted by the president's
appointment last week of the extremely able Ron Bloom to lead an effort
to revitalize manufacturing. But no one individual can be truly
successful in this critical and monumental task without that
fundamental rebalancing between Wall Street and Main Street that
candidate Obama promised.
It will require:
An
all-of-government manufacturing and industrial policy including a
10-year (not the current two-year) program of significant public
infrastructure investment;
Buy American requirements related to all federal procurement;
Major corporate tax reform, including reduced corporate income and payroll taxes and a new value-added-tax, or VAT; and
A fundamental reworking of our trade relationship with China to
eliminate illegal subsidies and currency manipulation, include
environmental and labor protections, and improve enforcement.
Last month's dismal unemployment numbers were a clarion call for
American workers to remind the administration of President Obama to
heed the call of candidate Obama, and in all facets make high-quality
and balanced job growth the long-term emphasis of the economic
revitalization policy.
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