If President Obama is to pursue a policy of "I want to end the mindset that got us into war in the first place," then he will also have to jettison some of that mindset’s inheritance from the Clinton years.
Just the thought of another book about Middle East policy
under President Bill Clinton might make the most stout-hearted reader quake;
but he or she would be well advised to consider Innocent Abroad: An Intimate
Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East,
by Martin Indyk. Indyk, who was (twice) U.S.
ambassador to Israel, and now
directs the Saban Center of Middle East Policy at the Brookings
Institution, has managed to write a new, very readable chronicle of Mideast
policy during the Clinton
years. Rather than focusing narrowly on the Oslo Accords, Camp David, and all
things Israeli-Palestinian, Indyk methodically works us through the broader
Israeli-Arab peace process, Iran,
and Iraq
as they feed off one another in a regional context. It is precisely those
policy linkages that will have to be redrawn by the new Obama administration,
and that theme is clearly uppermost in Indyk's mind.
The timing of the publication of Innocent Abroad is
fortuitous. Indyk, who was responsible for Near Eastern affairs at both the
State Department and the National Security Council during the Clinton
administration, is particularly well positioned to advise a new Democratic
president gearing up to tackle a Middle East in devastating disarray,
especially given the recent events in Gaza; and he is doing so with a Clinton
at his side at Foggy Bottom. All good reasons for a little recap of how the
last Democratic president approached the region. (It's also worth noting that
Indyk has remained close to the Clintons and
advised the New York
senator during her presidential bid.)
The book at times has a disjointed feel--it was apparently
edited down from a much larger manuscript--giving the impression that linking
material is sometimes missing. As a narrative, Innocent Abroad has something
for everyone--hawks, realists, neoconservatives, and peaceniks alike--and there
are plenty of "gotcha" moments, but they are sufficiently varied as
to provide sustenance to both right and left. That can be frustrating. Indyk's
conclusions, however, are less polygamous: American efforts to resolve the
Arab-Israeli conflict are central to re-stabilizing the region, and America should discard the policy of regime
change as it engages with both Syria
and Iran.
The book reminds us of the series of peace breakthroughs in
the 1990s--the various Oslo agreements, for
instance, under Israeli Labor and Likud leaders: Gaza-Jericho, Oslo B, Hebron, and Wye
River. In addition, there
was the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty, and real progress in defining the
parameters for a possible comprehensive deal between Israel
and Syria, alongside the largely
effective dual containment of Iran
and Iraq
(a policy framing of Indyk's own invention). Indyk also points to the
shortcomings of the Clinton
era and to the weighty, unfinished business on the Obama menu. While he is
often scathing about Bush's Middle East policy, Indyk notes the not
insignificant ways--from the extension of the no-fly zones over Iraq to the support of an official policy of
regime change--in which the Clinton
administration helped to seed the ground for the disaster that followed.
If President Obama is to pursue a policy of "I want to
end the mindset that got us into war in the first place," then he will
also have to jettison some of that mindset's inheritance from the Clinton years. Doing that
with a Clinton
as his most senior diplomat is not unrealistic, particularly if the evolution
in Indyk's thinking is at all indicative of Hillary's approach. And, as Indyk
reminds us, the United
States limits both its options and its
influence when it is talking to fewer actors in the region.
Indyk's recounting of Israel
and Syria's
attempts at a rapprochement makes for some compelling reading. The not
inconsiderable (although not exclusive) blame Indyk assigns to then Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Barak for the failure of those talks has already caused a
stir in Israel,
where the Hebrew version of Innocent Abroad was released last summer. His
blow-by-blow account of the Israeli-Syrian process, in particular from 1999 to
2000, of the summit at Shepherdstown, and of Clinton's fury at Barak for
"gaming" him, is riveting. (Barak had insisted on a summit with the
Syrians and then backtracked on his own proposals. When he again called on
Clinton to host a parley with the Palestinians at Camp David, the U.S.
dutifully played host. This time around, as Indyk tells it, Barak informed him
on the flight to Andrews Air Force base that "he had not had time to
prepare for the meeting." This in spite of the fact that "he alone
had insisted upon" the confab.) The ultimate demise of these efforts came
on March 26, 2000, in Geneva, when an exhausted American president (on his way
back from Asia) met an ailing Syrian leader, Hafez al-Assad, who passed away
just two months later.
Still, it is the section on the Syria track where Innocent
Abroad is groundbreaking. Indyk shares largely new material on the details of
talks between Syria's Riad Daoudi and Israel's General Uri Saguy as they
negotiate the thorny issues of demarcating a future Israeli-Syrian border and
re-delineating the 1967 boundaries between the two states.
As a new administration takes office, there is some debate
as to whether the United States should give priority to peace talks between
Israel and the Syrians or Israel and the Palestinians. Indyk suggests that
resolving the Palestinian conflict is the priority (and I agree with him on
this), but that the U.S. should also reengage bilaterally with Syria and
support the ongoing Israeli-Syrian talks currently being mediated by Turkey. He
persuasively explains the effect that progress with Syria would have both in
reducing Iran's regional leverage and in facilitating progress toward an
Israeli-Palestinian deal--by, for instance, causing Hamas to recalibrate its
regional options and probably soften its negotiating stance. In doing so, Indyk
rejects the "Syria first" line sometimes promoted in Washington.
I agree with Indyk's logic, but with one caveat: Indyk
seconds the conventional wisdom that Israel cannot pursue deals on the Syrian
and Palestinian tracks simultaneously, but I believe this thinking may well be
outdated. In fact, only a comprehensive deal may now make sense, one that both
closes bilateral peace deals between Israel and its neighbors and articulates a
regional peace based on the Arab League/Saudi peace initiative of 2002, whereby
Israel would have normal and secure relations with all of the Arab world.
While the
best of Innocent Abroad is in Indyk's prescriptions for a future Middle East
policy, there are some charming stories he tells of his tenure in the
diplomatic service. There is, for instance, the special handshaking technique
developed by U.S. diplomats to ensure that the "no-kissing rule" was
adhered to when greeting PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. Or the sometimes extreme
lengths that Secretary of State Warren Christopher would go to in order to avoid
overnighting in Arab capitals because of his delicate stomach.
In his concluding chapter, Indyk wisely reprises the Clinton
Parameters, presented by the departing president in December 2000, offering the
only official American guidelines ever written for resolving the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The document clearly outlines what a Mideast
peace deal might look like and the role America would need to play in making
that happen. Indyk suggests a few tweaks to the Clinton Parameters (which he
had a hand in preparing), notably when he suggests that a special international
regime be created in the Holy Basin-Old City area of Jerusalem. Some of the
recommendations (such as engaging in peace efforts early in a new
administration, and not waiting, as Bush did, until year eight) would be on
most people's checklist. Others are more innovative in the Washington context:
Indyk supports a more active role for the Arab states. To build Palestinian
national reconciliation he would like to see the deployment of multinational
forces to help facilitate the creation of a Palestinian state (without
replacing one occupying power with another), and have international support for
Arab efforts to co-opt rather than confront Hamas. (I would be in favor of all
of these, including the last, although unlike Indyk I would suggest that no
single Arab state play an exclusive role in mediating internal Palestinian
dialogue.)
Martin Indyk is candid and self-critical enough to
acknowledge that the peace team sometimes had "tin ears" when it came
to understanding the true intentions of Israel's leaders and were "poorly
informed" on intra-Palestinian politics. Unfortunately, his book
occasionally lapses into its own tin-eared moments. When there are dismissive
references to the Palestinian "sense of entitlement" to all the
territories occupied in 1967 or to a "perception of increased settlement
activity" during the 1990s (the settler population did increase, by more
than 100,000), the credibility of the book is harmed, as it is when the Israeli-Jordanian
peace and King Hussein's outreach to the Israeli public is described as a model
for securing future Israeli concessions. What concessions? Israel essentially
withdrew from no land and gave up no settlements in making peace with Jordan.
These nuances may be trivial, but they can skew the
U.S.-Israel relationship or U.S. policy in a way that is utterly unhelpful to
both U.S. and Israeli interests. Innocent Abroad is full of anecdotes (some
with explicit lessons, some implied, others perhaps unintentional) that, taken
together, produce an inescapable policy prescription: that the management of
the U.S.-Israel relationship needs to be recalibrated, for everyone's benefit.
We are told that on many occasions the Clinton administration "took an
Israeli idea and turned it into an American proposal." The result of this
was that the very deals from which Israel, the United States, and others would
have so greatly benefited were made more difficult to achieve. America's
diplomats are frequently depicted as dancing to a tune spun out in Jerusalem.
And the outcome is rarely pretty, for either the U.S. or Israel. (It is notable
that American presidents have a slightly better track record when it comes to
handling recalcitrant leaders of the right-no small thing, given the prospects
that Benjamin Netanyahu will return to the Israeli premiership after February's
election.)
To suggest that the United States play the role of honest
broker in the Middle East is almost seen as taboo in American political
discourse, yet a reasonable reading of this book's narration of the Clinton
years suggests that only by taking a more balanced approach (note: more
balanced, not totally balanced) can the U.S. be an effective broker. Part of
that will depend on the team assembled to handle these matters under Obama. As
Indyk reminds us, Clinton's peace team was described in the Arab media as
"the five rabbis," and a bit of diversity would certainly not be a
bad thing. But that diversity is as much about openness to different approaches
as it is about backgrounds. For example, take Robert Malley or Daniel Kurtzer,
both "rabbis" according to the above definition, and who both served
under Clinton in different capacities and have spent the last eight years
challenging parts of the conventional thinking and talking to a more inclusive
array of regional actors. While that might make them controversial picks, it
also makes such voices indispensable around the U.S. policymaking table.
Including Malley and/or Kurtzer in the Obama administration would send a signal
that some of the lessons contained in Innocent Abroad have been internalized.
New thinking is also required in Congress. When discussing
Iran policy, Indyk describes how "our own zealots on Capitol Hill"
managed to split the United States from its European allies by passing the Iran
and Libya Sanctions Act in 1996, thereby undermining Clinton administration
efforts to maintain a united front in containing Iran. The knee-jerk
congressional habit of running to the right of the executive (any executive--Congress
even outflanked Bush from the right in opposing Palestinian aid, for instance)
needs to be redressed.
Indyk is very critical of the Bush policy on Iran, of
subcontracting the negotiations to the Europeans and placing preconditions on
direct U.S.-Iranian talks, favoring engagement across the range of bilateral
issues. The point that he constantly returns to in discussing the Iran file,
both in the past and in the future, is the need for a credible American
initiative to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict as a vital component in
reducing Iran's regional influence and leverage. A book that is organized
around the tapestry of interacting issues in the Middle East, in which
"everything is connected here," inevitably ends up advocating for a
more thoughtful connecting of the dots in regional policy, and the central dot
is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
I would read Indyk as an antidote to the naysayers who
insist that "[t]he time for peace isn't ripe, Israelis and Palestinians
are in disarray, little can be done." It is not enough to say that one
needs to effectively address Israel-Palestine; one must also chart a course of
how to do it: ripeness can be created, the regional strategic context can be
reshaped, and many of the ingredients are contained in Innocent Abroad. I might
add some, and blend them slightly differently, but Indyk gives us a good
baseline recipe with which to start experimenting.
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