Consideration of the "do no harm" policy should guide future Obama decisions about Pakistan and Iran where the wrong choices will help empower militants.
In the war against al Qaeda and its allies, Barack Obama
should adopt five key principles when he takes office.
First, the United States
must lower the temperature in the Muslim world to help win back the "swing
voters" in the Islamic world who turned against America and provide passive support
to al Qaeda.
The Obama administration can do this by working as an honest
broker to resolve conflicts such as those in Kashmir
and Israel/Palestine that serve as grievances for Muslims and sometimes
training grounds for militants.
In addition, to help regain the moral high ground the United States should promptly close the prison
camp at Guantanamo
Bay and announce that it
will never engage in coercive interrogations of detainees.
A second strategic doctrine should be: first, do no harm.
Its rationale lies in the several major strategic weaknesses from which al
Qaeda and its associated groups suffer.
Encoded in the DNA of groups like al Qaeda are the seeds of
their own long-term destruction:
Their victims are more often than not Muslim civilians; the
organization doesn't offer a positive vision of the future (but rather the
prospect of Taliban-style regimes from Morocco to Indonesia); it keeps
expanding its list of enemies, including any Muslim who doesn't precisely share
its world view; and it seems incapable of becoming a politically successful
movement because al Qaeda's ideology prevents it from making the real-world
compromises that would allow it to engage in genuine politics.
This is not, however, an argument for doing nothing. It is
paradoxically their very weaknesses and lack of return addresses that makes the
jihadist terrorists more likely to attack the United States than traditional
state antagonists.
The "do no harm" doctrine would have served the
Bush administration well before it attacked Iraq, given the more than 4,000
dead and 30,000 wounded American soldiers; the tens of thousands of Iraqis
killed; the cost to U.S. taxpayers that could top a trillion dollars, and the
fact that jihadist terrorist attacks increased around the world sevenfold in
the three years following the 2003 invasion, according to a study by Paul
Cruickshank of NYU and myself.
Consideration of the "do no harm" policy should
guide future Obama decisions about Pakistan
and Iran
where the wrong choices will help empower militants.
The third doctrine is to disaggregate our enemies. The United States
must not fall into bin Laden's rhetorical trap of believing there is a
monolithic global jihadist militant movement united against it. The United States should be splintering, buying off
and co-opting its enemies -- the kind of policy that severely damaged al Qaeda
in Iraq.
Al Qaeda in Iraq's
(AQI) unrestrained violence and imposition of Taliban ideology on Iraqis was a
self-inflicted wound provoking a countrywide Sunni backlash against AQI in the
form of 'Awakening' militias allied with the United States.
The combination of the Sunni militias' on-the-ground
intelligence about former AQI allies and American firepower, proved devastating
to al Qaeda's Iraqi franchise. The lessons of this model can be applied to the
wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with all the usual caveats that Iraq is far from exactly analogous to South Asia.
The fourth doctrine is to approach the war on al Qaeda and
allied groups as a global counterinsurgency campaign, something that thoughtful
students of the global war on terror like the Australian
anthropologist/infantry officer Lt. Col. David Kilcullen and Bruce Hoffman, the
dean of terrorism studies, have advocated for years.
Successful counterinsurgency solutions are generally 80
percent political and only 20 percent military. The by now well-known statistic
that there are more musicians in U.S. military bands than American Foreign
Service Officers speaks volumes about the disproportionate government funding
of a U.S. military still overly oriented to superpower warfare.
Winning wars politically requires not additional
billion-dollar aircraft carriers but more relatively inexpensive diplomats,
trainers who can build up local police forces and embedded Special Forces
soldiers who specialize in training indigenous armies.
Finally, promoting more open societies in the Muslim world
will undermine the jihadist terrorists. It is no accident that so many members
of jihadist terror organizations come from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
Algeria and Egypt --
countries ruled by authoritarian regimes.
The Bush administration tended to put its faith in elections
as a synonym for "democracy." A more effective approach is to
emphasize the larger concepts that underpin democracy such as rule of law --
"justice" is a particularly resonant concept in the Muslim world --
and a free press.
And that's what Muslims want for themselves, according to
Pew polls taken since 9/11 in 17 countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Pew found that Muslim publics attach considerable
importance to "freedom to criticize the government. Honest multi-party
elections, a fair-handed judiciary and a press free to report without
government censorship."
That sounds a lot like the values that Americans also hold
dear. The Obama administration will come into office with a great deal of work
to do from Kabul to Kashmir and from Iraq to Indonesia. But it can do so secure
in the knowledge that Muslims embrace many of the same political values that
Americans do.
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