Given expectations and Obama's own early declarations of its
importance, Copenhagen is now dead. But what killed it is a fundamental
error of the Obama White House: that it can be all things to all
causes.
He did it! During his trip to China, President Barack Obama
mentioned human rights and the importance of free thinking, and China
didn't dump its massive pile of U.S. dollars. America must still have
some sway left in the world.
Perhaps Obama is now on a roll and will score a last-minute deal with
China on climate change reduction targets or revaluing the Chinese yuan
to get the global economic order rebalanced. Not.
Despite all this Asia trip fanfare, the truth is, America is foundering
beneath Obama's sizzle. The world doubts America's ability to achieve
objectives that it has set for itself -- and this includes several key
goals Obama had before going on his wide cut through Northeast and
Southeast Asia.
Among Obama's goals for this trip were, first, to convince Asians that
the region is a U.S. priority at the presidential level. Box
checked. Second was to get into the race of multilateral trade that
Australia, China and Japan are each spearheading in their own way.
Trans-Pacific partnership -- check (but a pathetically sized check).
Third was to secure support for serious, binding targets to cut
greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050, particularly for China.
Missed target -- sizzle fizzled. Fourth was to strike a deal with China
and other key Asian nations to structurally re-engineer their economies
to prioritize consumption over production -- and to encourage them to
buy American products on the way to rebalancing the global economy.
Another big fizzle.
Obama is a mesmerizing force on the global stage. His presence and
open-minded, swaggerless posture, his way of framing opportunity and
hope not just for the U.S. but for the world, are all welcomed by other
nations and their citizens. But the world is interconnected in exactly
the ways that Obama described during the campaign.
That means that America's being stuck in a worsening quagmire in
Afghanistan and pricked hard as it tries to adjust its forces out of
Iraq have created doubt in allies about U.S. dependability, along with
an appetite for change among global foes.
If America is perceived as weak militarily -- and, after exporting toxic
financial products to the world, dethroned economically -- and also
morally doubted given the ongoing drama at Guantanamo and memories of
Abu Ghraib, then nations will not easily be moved to a course Obama is
encouraging.
The reaction around much of the world is that the Copenhagen climate
change meeting in December will be a soft summit, not a hard one that
moves beyond pretense to action.
Given expectations and Obama's own early declarations of its
importance, Copenhagen is now dead. But what killed it is a fundamental
error of the Obama White House: that it can be all things to all
causes.
Obama's attentions are spread too thin. It is vital for the White House
to demonstrate an ability to accomplish goals, be they in reorienting
Iran's course, establishing a Palestinian state, ending the embargo of
Cuba, creating a new global management pact with China, establishing a
Manhattan Project for the next generation or developing renewable
energy -- anything that might create a "Nixon goes to China" strategic
leap out of the incrementalism and inertia driving America's course
now.
But Obama has pulled off nothing big yet, and until he shows an ability
to change the way gravitational forces have pulled global affairs out
of equilibrium, then the world will resist America's most benign
entreaties to collectively solve problems that face all of us --
particularly climate change.
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