The war on terror became the lens through which the Bush administration judged almost all of its foreign policy decisions. That proved to be dangerously counterproductive on several levels.
One of their toughest conceptual challenges is how to
describe and recast what the Bush administration has consistently termed the
"war on terror."
The dean of military strategists, Carl von Clausewitz,
explains the importance of this decision-making in his treatise "On
War": "The first, the supreme, the most decisive act of judgment that
the statesman and commander have to make is to establish...the kind of war on
which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into
something that is alien to its nature."
Clausewitz's excellent advice about the absolute necessity
of properly defining the war upon which a nation is about to embark was ignored
by Bush administration officials who instead declared an open-ended and
ambiguous "war on terror" after the United States was attacked on
September 11, 2001.
Bush took the nation to war against a tactic, rather than a
war against a specific enemy, which was obviously al Qaeda and anyone allied to
it. When the United States
went to war against the Nazis and the Japanese during World War II, President
Franklin Roosevelt and his congressional supporters did not declare war against
U-boats and kamikaze pilots, but on the Nazi state and Imperial Japan.
The war on terror, sometimes known as the "Global War
on Terror" or by the clunky acronym GWOT, became the lens through which
the Bush administration judged almost all of its foreign policy decisions. That
proved to be dangerously counterproductive on several levels.
The GWOT framework propelled the Bush administration into
its disastrous entanglement in Iraq.
It had nothing to do with 9/11 but was launched under the rubric of the war on
terror and the erroneous claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass
destruction.
The theory was that he might give such weapons to
terrorists, including al Qaeda to whom he was supposedly allied, and that he
therefore threatened American interests. None of this, of course, turned out to
be true.
The Bush administration's approach to the war on terror
collided badly with another of its doctrines, spreading democracy in the Middle East as a panacea to reduce radicalism.
It pushed for elections in the Palestinian territories in
which, in early 2006, the more radical Hamas won a resounding victory,
propelled to power on a wave of popular revulsion for the incompetence and
corruption of the Fatah party that had dominated Palestinian politics since the
1960s.
Imprisoned by its war on terror framework, the Bush
administration supported Israel
in a disastrous war against Hezbollah in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
Hezbollah is not only a terrorist group but is also part of the rickety
Lebanese government and runs social welfare services across the country, yet
for the Bush administration its involvement in terrorism was all that mattered.
As is now widely understood in Israel, the war against Hezbollah
was a moral and tactical defeat for the Israeli military and government. Events
in the current Israeli incursion in Gaza
will determine whether history repeats itself.
Under the banner of the war on terror, the Bush
administration also tied itself in conceptual knots conflating the threat from al
Qaeda with Shiite groups like Hezbollah and the ayatollahs in Iran.
In 2006, for instance, President Bush claimed that "the
Sunni and Shiite extremist represent different faces of the same threat."
In reality, Sunni and Shiite extremists have been killing each other in large
numbers for years in countries from Pakistan
to Iraq.
The groups have differing attitudes toward the United States, which Sunni
extremists attacked in 1993 and again on 9/11, while Shiite militants have
never done so.
So, how to reconceptualize the GWOT?
Contrary to a common view among Europeans, who have lived
through the bombing campaigns of various nationalist and leftist terror groups
for decades, al Qaeda is not just another criminal/terrorist group that can be
dealt with by police action and law enforcement alone.
After all, a terrorist organization like the Irish
Republican Army would call in warnings before its attacks and its single
largest massacre killed 29 people. By contrast, al Qaeda has declared war on
the United States
repeatedly -- as it did for the first time to a Western audience during Osama
bin Laden's 1997 interview with CNN.
Following that declaration of war, the terror group attacked
American embassies, a U.S. warship, the Pentagon and the financial heart of the
United States, killing thousands of civilians without warning; acts of war by
any standard.
Al Qaeda is obviously at war with the United States
and so to respond by simply recasting the GWOT as the GPAT, the Global Police
Action Against Terrorists, would be foolish and dangerous.
What kind of war then should the United States fight against al
Qaeda? For that we should learn some lessons from the conceptual errors of the
Bush administration.
Nine days after 9/11, Bush addressed Congress in a speech
watched live by tens of millions of Americans in which he said that al Qaeda
followed in the footsteps "of the murderous ideologies of the 20th
century...They follow in the path of fascism, Nazism and totalitarianism,"
implying that the fight against al Qaeda would be similar to World War II or
the Cold War.
For the Bush administration, painting the conflict in such
existential terms had the benefit of casting the president as the heroic reincarnation
of Winston Churchill and anyone who had the temerity to question him as the
reincarnation of Hitler's arch-appeaser, Neville Chamberlain.
But this portrayal of the war on terror was massively
overwrought. The Nazis occupied and subjugated most of Europe
and instigated a global conflict that killed tens of millions. And when the United States
fought the Nazis, the country spent 40 percent of its gross domestic product to
do so and fielded millions of soldiers.
In his inaugural address, Obama should say that the United States is indeed at "war against al
Qaeda and its allies," but that as Roosevelt
said in his inaugural address in 1933, the only thing we have to fear is fear
itself. If Americans are not terrorized by terrorists, then the U.S. has won against
them.
Al Qaeda and its allies are threats to the United States
and Americans living and working overseas, but they are far from all-powerful.
Barring an exceptional event like September 11, 2001, in any given year
Americans are more likely to die of snake bites or lightning strikes than a
terrorist attack.
Despite the hyperventilating rhetoric of Osama bin Laden, al
Qaeda's amateur investigations into weapons of mass destruction do not compare
to the very real possibility of nuclear conflagration that we faced during the
Cold War. There are relatively few adherents of Binladen-ism in the West today,
while there were tens of millions of devotees of communism and fascism.
Obama should also make it clear that instead of the Bush
formulation of "Either you are with us, or you are with the
terrorists," the Obama administration doctrine will be, "Anyone who
is against the terrorists is with us."
After all it is only al Qaeda and its several affiliates in
countries like Iraq, Lebanon and Algeria
and allied groups such as the Taliban that kill U.S. soldiers and civilians and
attack American interests around the globe.
Everyone else in the world is a potential or actual ally in
the fight against al Qaeda and its affiliates, because those organizations
threaten almost every category of institution, government and ethnic grouping.
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