It's neither Barack Obama's charm nor his intentions that are driving the centrifugal process that's concentrating authority in the capital city. It's the unprecedented collapse of rival centers of power.
For more than two centuries, it has been a wannabe among the great
world capitals. But now, Washington is finally ready for its close-up.
No
longer a jumped-up Canberra or, worse, Sacramento, it seems about to
emerge as Pyongyang on the Potomac, the undisputed center of national
power and influence. As a new president takes over the White House, the
United States' capacity for centralization has arguably never been
greater. But it's neither Barack Obama's charm nor his intentions that
are driving the centrifugal process that's concentrating authority in
the capital city. It's the unprecedented collapse of rival centers of
power.
This is most obvious in economic affairs, an area in which
the nation's great regions have previously enjoyed significant
autonomy. But already the dukes of Wall Street and Detroit have
submitted their papers to Washington for vassalage. Soon many other
industries, from high-tech to agriculture and energy, will become
subject to a Kremlin full of special czars. Even the most haughty boyar
may have to genuflect to official orthodoxy on everything from social
equity to sanctioned science.
At the same time, the notion of
decentralized political power -- the linchpin of federalism -- is
unraveling. Today, once proudly independent -- even defiant -- states,
counties and cities sit on the verge of insolvency. New York and
California, two megastates, face record deficits. From California to
the Carolinas, local potentates with no power to print their own money
will be forced to kiss Washington's ring.
Americans may still
possess what the 19th-century historian Frederick Jackson Turner
described as "an antipathy to control," but lately, they seem willing
to submit themselves to an unprecedented dose of it. A financial
collapse driven by unrestrained private excess -- falling, ironically,
on the supposedly anti-Washington Republicans' watch -- seems to have
transformed federal government cooking into the new comfort food.
To
foreigners, this concentration of power might seem the quintessence of
normalcy. As the sociologist E. Digby Baltzell wrote in 1964, elites
have dominated and shaped the world's great cosmopolitan centers --
from Athens to Rome to Baghdad -- throughout history. In modern times,
capital cities such as London, Paris, Moscow, Berlin and Tokyo have not
only ruled their countries but have also largely defined them. In all
these countries (with the exception of Germany, which was divided
during the Cold War), publishing, media, the arts and corporate and
political power are all concentrated in the same place. Paris is the
undisputed global face of France just as London is of Great Britain or
Tokyo is of Japan.
Although each had their merchant classes,
these cities were strongly hierarchical, governed by those closest by
blood or affiliation to the ruling family and populated largely by
their servants. In contrast, Baltzell observed, U.S. cities such as New
York have been "heterogeneous from top to bottom." Their power came not
from the government or the church but from trade, the production of
goods and scientific innovations, as well as the peddling of ideas and
culture.
But Washington has always occupied a unique and somewhat
incongruous niche among U.S. cities. It came into being not because of
the economic logic of its location, but because it was a convenient
compromise between North and South. It never developed into a center of
commerce or manufacturing. Nor was it meant to be a fortress. Instead,
it was designed for one specific purpose: to house the business of
governance.
Pierre Charles L'Enfant, the French-born classicist
and civil engineer who developed the plan for the city, envisioned a
majestic capital that would "leave to posterity a grand idea of the
patriotic interest," as he wrote in 1791. Yet for most of its history,
Washington failed to measure up to the standards of European or Asian
capitals. In January 1815, a South Carolina congressman described the
capital to his wife as a "city which so many are willing to come to and
all so anxious to leave."
This lowly status stemmed, to some
extent, from what the historian James Sterling Young has defined as the
"anti-power" ethos of early Americans. The revolutionary generation and
its successors loathed the confluence of power and wealth that defined
19th-century London or Paris. A muddy outpost in the woods seemed more
appropriate to republican ideals.
Even as other American cities,
such as New York and Baltimore, expanded rapidly, Washington grew
slowly, at a rate well below the national average. Bold predictions
that the city would boast a population of 160,000 by the 1830s fell far
short. Instead, it had barely reached 45,000 people, including more
than 6,000 slaves. It remained eerily bereft of all the things that
make cities vital -- thriving commerce, a busy port, decent eateries
and distinguished shops. Visiting the city in 1842, Charles Dickens
marveled at a city of "spacious avenues that begin in nothing and lead
nowhere."
To some observers, such as Alexis de Tocqueville,
Washington's relative decrepitude reflected one of the glories of the
young republic. The fact that the country had "no metropolis" that
dominated it from the center struck the young noble, on his visit to
America in the early 1830s, as "one of the first causes of the
maintenance of Republican institutions."
Washington's status
improved only marginally in the next century, even as other brilliant
centers of power, culture and commerce emerged on the Eastern Seaboard
and then across the Midwest and West. The rapid rise of New York was
challenged in quick succession by the even more sudden emergence of
Chicago in the industrial Midwest and San Francisco on the Gold Rush
coast of California. Washington was surely the nerve center of
politics, but commerce, culture and the vast majority of the media
chose to concentrate elsewhere.
It would take enormous misfortune
-- the Depression -- to provide Washington with its first great growth
spurt. As the business empires of New York, Chicago, Detroit and
Cleveland buckled and the New Deal took control of the economy, power
shifted decisively to the capital. This expansion of influence
continued with the onset of World War II and then during the Cold War.
The
ensuing rise of the military and domestic bureaucracies transformed
Washington from a small provincial city into a major metropolitan area.
The greater economic shift from a predominantly manufacturing to a
high-tech, information-centered economy also played to Washington's
strengths. In his groundbreaking 1973 book, "The Coming of
Post-Industrial Society," the sociologist Daniel Bell predicted that
the country's prevailing "business civilization" would inevitably
become dominated by the government bureaucracy. Corporations would
eventually look to Washington's lead for regulatory standards, to
sponsor research and make critical science-related decisions.
In
the past half-century, this confluence of technology and bureaucracy
has transformed Washington and its surrounding suburbs into the most
dynamic large metropolitan economy in the Northeast. Between 1950 and
1996, the region's population expanded by roughly 150 percent, three or
more times faster than other cities along the Boston-Washington
corridor.
By the mid-1970s, Washington and its environs had also
emerged as the richest region in the country. Since then, it has
remained at or near the top of metropolitan areas in terms of both per
capita income and level of education. Despite deplorable concentrations
of poverty, particularly in the city proper, the region's average
household incomes remain the highest in the country -- nearly 50
percent above the national average. The percentage of adults with a
bachelor's degree or higher, nearly 42 percent, surpasses even such
brainy-seeming places as greater Boston, Seattle and Minneapolis.
The
contrast between Washington and most of the United States has gradually
become more pronounced. In good times and in bad, lawyers, lobbyists
and other government retainers have continued to enrich themselves even
as the Midwest industrial-belt cities have cratered and most others
struggled to survive. "The vision of generations of liberals," admitted
the New Republic in the mid-1970s, "has created a prosperous and
preposterous city whose population is completely isolated from the
people they represent and immune from the problems they are supposed to
solve."
In today's crisis, the Washington area remains somewhat
aloof, with the second-lowest unemployment rate among major
metropolitan areas of more than 1 million. (Only Oklahoma City, largely
insulated from both the financial and housing bubbles, is doing better,
although collapsing energy prices could threaten its prosperity.) The
rate of job growth, although slower, is still among the highest in the
country, and unemployment is below the national average.
This
disparity will grow in the coming years, as rival regions reel from the
recession. Many once-powerful places are already losing their
independence and allure. Wall Street, formerly the seat of privatized
power, has been reduced to supplicant status. The fate of New York
Mayor Michael Bloomberg's "luxury city" will be determined not in deals
with London, Dubai or Shanghai but by the U.S. Treasury. Similarly, the
vast auto economy of the upper Midwest will take direction from
congressional appropriations and whoever is named the new "car czar."
This
loss of power in the provinces will broaden in scope during the coming
months. Even proud Texas has lost its unique political influence. Its
energy barons will now be forced to do the bidding of the lawmakers and
regulators, instead of carrying them in their hip pockets.
Even
industries that are well plugged in to the new Obama regime -- such as
venture capital and alternative energy -- are facing financial ruin
from the downturn in both markets and energy prices. To win new funding
and subsidies for their next bubble, they'll increasingly rely not on
their ballyhooed cleverness but on their pull with the White House,
Congress and the new science apparat, under the green-oriented Energy
Secretary Steven Chu and Obama's neo-Malthusian pick for White House
science adviser, physicist John Holdren.
All this is bad news for
much of America, but it should mean great business for many residents
of greater Washington. Sudden interest in District pied-a-terres among
investment bankers, venture capitalists, energy potentates and their
hired help could do a lot to restore the battered condominium market.
Office buildings in the District and surrounding environs can now
expect a new rush of tenants, both from the private sector and the
soon-to-be expanding federal bureaucracies.
The transfer of
cultural power to Washington will also accelerate. After all,
Washington is more than ever where the action is. Media outlets have
already been shifting out of New York and other cities -- the Atlantic
Monthly moved from Boston to Washington in recent years, and USA Today,
National Public Radio and XM Radio are headquartered in or near the
capital. A city that, according to one 19th-century account, had a
cuisine consisting largely of "hog and hominy grits" now boasts
world-class restaurants, draws top-line chefs to its food scene and
will continue to develop into a serious epicurean center. The area
already ranks third in film and television production, largely because
of a thriving news and documentary business, as embodied in the
National Geographic, the Public Broadcasting Service and the Discovery
Channel.
Over time, those of us in the provinces may grow to
resent all this, seeing in Washington's ascendancy something obtrusive,
oppressive and contrary to the national ethos. But don't expect
Washingtonians to care much. They'll be too busy running the country,
when not chortling all the way to the bank.
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