Job creation for production of green technologies may occur far more outside than inside the United States. Investing in green energy will create jobs, but many of these jobs may be created elsewhere.
After the release of a miserable June jobs report, President Obama
stood with a group of green company CEOs and told reporters that "men
and women like these will help lead us out of this recession and into a
better future."
But if the White House puts too many eggs in the
green recovery basket, we may all be disappointed. The green sector is
simply not large enough or competitive enough to be a major engine of
job creation.
The CEOs who stood with Obama lead smart,
innovative and, in many cases, rapidly growing firms. But green firms
in the United States are small and employ relatively few people.
Applied
Materials, one of the larger companies at the meeting and a producer of
solar cells, employs 13,000 people worldwide and only 6,000 in the
United States. Hara, a smaller company at the table, uses computer
models to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Hara employs 30 people in the United States.
Moreover,
data on production of green technologies globally show that the United
States is becoming less competitive. Looking at the "green trade
balance," or the balance of trade in goods for reducing pollution,
increasing energy efficiency and producing renewable energy, the United
States moved from a trade surplus of $14.4 billion in 1997 to a trade
deficit of $8.9 billion in 2008.
Thus, job creation for
production of green technologies may occur far more outside than inside
the United States. Investing in green energy will create jobs, but many of these jobs may be created elsewhere.
This is not to disparage these innovative companies. They may one day revolutionize energy generation and consumption the way Google revolutionized the Internet.
But
green industries will not achieve this goal in the near future and will
probably remain dependent on government subsidies for the short- to
medium term. Since the Carter administration, activity in the green
sector has waxed and waned as the green economy has come into vogue and
fallen out of favor with politicians.
Currently, large federal subsidies go to the renewable energy
sector. According to estimates by the Energy Information Agency, solar
energy receives $24.34 in federal subsidies per megawatt hour (MWh) of
electricity produced. Electricity generated by wind receives $23.37 per
MWh. By way of comparison, natural gas receives 25 cents per MWh and
nuclear power receives $1.59 per MWh. The stimulus law -- and the
climate change bill, should it pass -- will increase the subsidies for
renewable energy and energy efficiency.
And because the green
sector is heavily dependent on subsidies, its growth potential is
self-limiting. As more money is invested, the government goes into more
debt. In other words, in the short term, the green sector can grow only
as much as you subsidize it.
Furthermore, a focus on green
investment may even neglect or underfund other areas of the economy
that have greater potential to grow the economy. Money spent on
infrastructure, more aid to state governments and boosting exports by
cutting corporate taxes would do more to help our economy recover than
pouring money into a relatively small number of green jobs.
The
White House certainly has high hopes for the green sector. Obama said
during the campaign that $150 billion in green investments would create
5 million green jobs over 10 years. Vice President Joe Biden also puts
a lot of stock in the green recovery. He chose green jobs as the first
topic to address as the head of the Middle Class Task Force.
But,
relying heavily on the green sector for job creation will probably
disappoint. According to a study conducted by Global Insight, the total
of all green jobs in the United States equals half of one percent of
total employment (about 750,000 jobs). This is roughly the same number
of jobs that the economy shed in January. The same study projects the
potential to create 4 million green jobs, but says it will take 30
years to do so.
Even if the green energy sector were to grow 50
percent overnight, it would be able to do so only on the back of heavy
government subsidies and with limited returns to the economy. This 50
percent increase in green employment would not even make up for the
jobs lost in any single month of 2009.
To be sure, the United
States should develop its green energy sector. Green technologies can
help protect the environment by reducing pollution, and investments in the green sector today are likely to pay off in the
long run. At the same time, the president should recognize the limits
of the green sector to contribute to the job creation the country will
desperately need during the next few years.
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