Natural gas development offers a unique opportunity to tackle strategic, diplomatic, and environmental goals at the same time. Even in the world's most turbulent region, there is a possibility for renewed trade along what ancient merchants knew as the Silk Road.
The lessons of geography appear to be ignored by policymakers in
Washington D.C. these days. The Obama administration is pursuing
tenuous negotiations with Iran regarding its supply of low-enriched
uranium, in the hopes of taking the first step to erase the
longstanding animosity between the two countries. It is also rethinking
its Afghanistan and Pakistan policy to emphasize reconstruction and
economic development. These two strategies are unfortunately
disconnected -- despite the fact that Afghanistan shares a
600-mile-long strategic border with Iran.
Neither a "surge" of
troops and aid in Afghanistan, nor negotiations over Iran's nuclear
program without addressing its regional isolation, will bring Central
Asia much closer to stability. The United States must support a policy
that addresses the major deficiency all these countries share in
common: a lack of clean, affordable energy for their poor populations.
Only natural gas pipelines, not military supply lines, can do this.
The United States has so far been ambivalent about using Central
Asia's natural resources to guide its policy, confounding the prospects
for pipeline development. Yet without an energy infrastructure,
individual U.S. reconstruction programs are going to struggle to get
off the ground. For example, the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones
(ROZs) established in Pakistan's tribal areas, which provide goods
produced in these areas with duty-free access to the U.S. market, will
have little impact without a steady energy supply to fuel local
industry. Pipelines and power lines can be a much more significant
economic stimulus. By providing energy for power-starved nations, they
can empower microeconomic activity through lower fuel and electricity
costs.
Natural gas pipelines can also provide an impetus for a
diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. Two proposed pipeline routes
currently offer the greatest opportunity to solidify regional
integration and create lasting stability: the route from Iran via
Pakistan to India (IPI), and from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and
Pakistan to India (TAPI). But thus far, the U.S. had sought to hinder
international commerce with Iran, lobbying only for pipeline routes
that avoid Iranian territory. It actively lobbied against the proposed
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project - even despite its tacit acceptance
of the pipeline that runs between Iran and Turkey. This Iran-Turkey
pipeline, which traverses Turkey's volatile Kurdish region, also
exemplifies how security along such infrastructure can be adequately
provided, even in conflict zones.
The IPI pipeline might
represent the most promising confidence-building measure with Iran.
Furthermore, recent discussions surrounding TAPI actually route it
through Iran as well. If this turns out to be the case, it will force
the U.S. to accept that the stabilization of Pakistan and Afghanistan
requires a rapprochement with Iran. Since demand for gas in South Asia
continues to skyrocket, the U.S. should encourage both projects and
actively link their implementation to its conflict resolution strategy
for the region. Détente with Iran need not wait for a nuclear
breakthrough.
Furthermore, depending on the route of the
pipeline, Afghanistan could earn as much as $100 million per year from
transit fees of pipelines, providing a necessary boost for
Afghanistan's perpetually aid-dependent government.
These
pipelines will aid, not hinder, America's efforts to provide economic
relief to Pakistan as well. Even with the fairly high prices for gas
Iran offers to Pakistan, IPI could save the country between $652
million and $1.17 billion annually, depending on the price of oil.
This is approximately the same amount as the Kerry-Lugar legislation
would deliver in non-military aid each year to Pakistan. According to
government reports, Pakistan currently has an energy shortfall of
between 3000 and 4000 megawatts (MW), while India's shortfall is
estimated to be between 15,000 and 20,000 MW. For this reason, the
development of energy projects were a focus of Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton's recent visit to Islamabad - however, the talks
reportedly ignored the regional context of this issue.
Finally,
given concerns about climate change, natural gas pipelines offer donors
an opportunity to limit the output of carbon emissions. Natural gas is
likely to be the cleanest and most cost-effective fuel to meet Pakistan
and India's energy shortfall. Apart from its use in power plants,
natural gas is also being used in the transportation sector. The
significance of compressed natural gas (CNG) in India was highlighted
as early as 1998, when the Supreme Court ruled that all commercial
vehicles in New Delhi should switch to natural gas by 2001 due to
pollution concerns from diesel and petrol engines. Pakistan already has
more than a million cars on CNG and ranks third in global CNG use after
Brazil and Argentina. What's more, while oil is still largely
transported across the globe by a fleet of more than 38,000
pollution-causing marine tankers, 93% of the world's gas continues to
be supplied through pipelines.
Natural gas development offers a
unique opportunity to tackle strategic, diplomatic, and environmental
goals at the same time. Even in the world's most turbulent region,
there is a possibility for renewed trade along what ancient merchants
knew as the Silk Road.
If we genuinely want to stabilize this
crisis zone without a heavy American footprint, new energy-based Silk
Roads are the solution.
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