In early September, Colombia's biggest businesses surprised everyone
by declaring their wholehearted support for the country's president, Alvaro
Uribe, in his deepening conflict with Venezuela. If they lost the huge export
market next door, well, that would simply be too bad.
For the first time, Colombian exporters of just about everything
Venezuela buys, from toilet paper to gasoline, fruit and vegetables, and milk
and meat, gave their president the green light to confront Venezuelan President
Hugo Chávez instead of continuing to turn the other cheek, as they had been
pressing him to do in the eight years since Uribe took office.
Venezuela had become a magnificent business opportunity for Colombian
exporters. It produces next to nothing anymore (except oil), has a highly
subsidized official exchange rate and wields huge sums of petro-dollars with
which it can buy up everything in sight. While Colombia's authorities were
forced to deal with Chávez's frequent insults, interventions in Colombia's
internal affairs, massive arms purchases and diplomatic tantrums, the business
community profited and pressured the government to compromise. Until now, that
is what the government did.
The hesitation of Colombia's business community to confront Chávez may
prove to have been the last remaining hurdle for Uribe, the United States and a
handful of Latin American democracies to clear before they could face up to
Chávez. It is past time that they did.
Venezuela's former lieutenant colonel has repeatedly provided sanctuary,
arms, diplomatic support and financing to the FARC guerrillas fighting to
overthrow the Colombian government. He has engaged in immense arms purchases
from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, most recently including tanks, fighter planes
and a submarine. He has increasingly clamped down on dissent, the opposition
and basic freedoms in Venezuela, as well as expropriating business concerns
without compensation.
By systematically supporting his allies in other Latin America
countries, from Bolivia and Argentina to Honduras and El Salvador and including
Peru, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Mexico's opposition, Chávez has polarized the
entire Latin American continent in the same way that he has his own society.
Moreover, he has implicated Venezuela in global conflicts half a world away by
allying himself with the Iranian regime and becoming one of its bulwarks.
In the face of all this, no one has yet attempted to stop Chávez. What's
more, Uribe himself seems tempted to continue to search for compromises. Aside
from protecting Colombian business interests, he seeks to amend Colombia's
constitution so that he can run for a third term in office -- exactly what
Chávez has done in Venezuela and what his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina
(indirectly) and Nicaragua have all sought.
Uribe may still back down, though he is leaving himself precious little
wiggle room to decline reelection after all that his supporters have done to
allow it. But he could also be searching for an accommodation with the United
States that might finally lead to containing Chávez.
Most Colombians would like the immensely popular Uribe to stay in office
for another four years. But many abroad would not, either because his second
reelection would undercut arguments against others intent on perpetuating
themselves in power or because it would complicate their relations with
Colombia.
U.S. President Barack Obama finds himself in both of these categories.
He cannot criticize Chávez's eternal presidency without hitting Uribe and it
will prove almost impossible for Obama to win Congressional renewal of Plan
Colombia, the drug-enforcement and counter-insurgency program launched by Bill
Clinton in 1999, let alone ratification of Colombia's free-trade agreement with
the United States if Uribe can be portrayed by American critics as a perpetual
violator of human rights intent on remaining in power indefinitely.
It would not be easy for Uribe to resist a direct appeal from Obama to
step down after two terms. For that reason, there might be a basis for a deal:
Uribe offers not to run again if Obama begins to confront Chávez the way he
should be opposed: diplomatically, politically, ideologically, and in the court
of world opinion and international law. Only with active U.S. backing can
Colombia take its case to the Organization of American States (where it would
currently lose), to the United Nations (where it might win) and to friends and
allies in Europe and Asia (where it would undoubtedly have the upper hand).
The case against Chávez is solid if it is properly presented -- as a
series of repeated violations of domestic, regional and international
commitments and covenants signed and ratified by Venezuela. Whether these
violations involve shutting down TV stations, imprisoning and exiling
opponents, arming guerrillas in neighboring countries, provoking an arms race
in the region, or flirting with Iran's nuclear enrichment program, they all can
be proved and denounced.
If Colombia and Obama proceed in this fashion, their potential allies in
the rest of the hemisphere might lose their fears about being left hanging out
to dry. Countries like Mexico, Peru, Chile after its December election, Costa
Rica, and the Dominican Republic all worry that if they confront Chávez, they
will not only, in certain cases, lose his largesse, but also provoke him into
meddling in their domestic politics. But if Obama shows that he takes the issue
seriously and intends to pursue a policy of containment, these nations would
probably respond favorably.
Letting matters drift toward greater confrontation is not a sustainable
policy for Colombia, the United States, or the rest of Latin America. Such a
course would allow Venezuela to choose the next conflict, postponing a showdown
until deteriorating circumstances make conflict both inevitable and more
dangerous. It is now time for Obama to emulate Colombia's business community
and stop turning the other cheek.
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