The financial crisis has opened the door for others to question not only whether the United States is up to the task of driving and policing how the world’s financial systems operate.
When future historians look back at the major shift in power
that came in the fall of 2008, they will focus not just on the election of
Barack Obama. Less than two weeks after Obama's historic election, finance
ministers and central bank governors from the G-20 nations convened in Washington at the height
of a global panic to discuss the future of global finance.
While some leaders tried to use the meeting to address big
issues in a big way (German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that the summit
was "about no less and no more than the creation of a new financial
constitution"), the meeting ended with little more than a whimper.
Even taking into account the constraints of limited
preparation time and the lame-duck status of the Bush Administration, one thing
stands out -- the failure of the United
States to provide affirmative leadership on
how to prevent similar crises in the future. This may ultimately represent a
significant turning point away from U.S. financial primacy and
leadership around the globe.
Much of the rest of the world sees the current global
financial crisis simultaneously as: a) America's fault; b) a very big deal
and c) worthy of a rethinking of the basic assumptions of U.S.-style
capitalism. But the United
States doesn't appear to recognize how much
anger and blame is being cast its way.
Eric Besson, the French Minster for Policy Planning, noted
that there is a sense in the United States that the current relative market
calm is evidence that the "financial crisis was a ‘little car accident' caused
by a few specific U.S. problems and that it would soon be ‘back to business as usual.'"
By contrast, a recent poll conducted in Eastern
Germany found that, as a result of this crisis, 52% had lost all
confidence in the free market economy while 43% would support a return to
socialism. That's no fender bender, that's a train wreck.
While no G-20 countries are currently advocating socialism,
most member countries -- but not the United States -- openly sought more
tangible results from the November 2008 summit. Immediately prior to the
meeting, leaders from some 40 major European and Asian countries met in China
and stressed the need for the Washington summit to be "a place where we make
some decisions, [as] we have all understood that it would not be possible to
simply meet and have a discussion."
But in the end, the G-20 summit ended with a lengthy
communiqué and without tangible reforms or decisions. This has left a big
opening for other countries with more ambitious agendas to step up.
For example, in mid-January 2009, French President Sarkozy,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair hosted
a meeting in Paris
to address the issues that the Washington-based G-20 meeting neatly skirted.
Titled "New World:
Values, Development and Regulation," participants discussed difficult but
fundamental issues, including the role of the state in a market-based economy.
The discussion also addressed the issue of which institutions and values should
regulate and govern capitalist systems.
The message of the meeting was perhaps most succinctly
delivered by President Sarkozy, who first questioned the morality and logic of
American-style capitalism. He then observed, "In the 21st century, there is no
longer only one country that says what we should do and think. We will not
accept any return to a single way of thought." No one from the U.S. government
was in attendance.
Failure by the United States to take meetings like
this one seriously is dangerous. As Professors Bruce Jentleson and Steven Weber
recently noted, "The rules have changed, and the biggest and most basic
questions of world politics are open for debate once again."
It appears that the financial crisis has opened the door for
others to question not only whether the United States is up to the task of
driving and policing how the world's financial systems operate. Perhaps it also
extends to a broader question about U.S. leadership, international
alliances and the world order.
This global financial crisis -- and the sense of collective
financial insecurity it triggered -- brought together nations as bedfellows in
ways that seemed unlikely only weeks before. For example, as a result of the
crisis, Iceland sought a
sovereign bailout from Russia.
China
joined with South Korea, Japan and ten
Southeast Asian nations in the creation of an $80 billion fund that the
countries could use to defend their currencies. China not only agreed to
refinance one of Russia's oil companies, but it also announced that it had
commenced more timely phone conversations with long-time rival Japan to better
coordinate their responses to the crisis.
In Europe, Britain's
Labor Prime Minister Brown and France's
Gaullist President Sarkozy were, for some weeks, almost inseparable. In spite
of Britain's
failure to adopt the euro and traditional friction between the two countries,
Brown was nevertheless given a prominent role at Sarkozy's eurozone summit.
And the EU itself, often seen by critics as incapable of
action in times of crisis, surmounted structural hurdles to collectively raise
two billion euros on the global capital markets to help bail out member state Hungary.
The financial crisis apparently opened up for discussion
bilateral and regional alliances in a way that decades of traditional diplomacy
did not. Countries came together through a combination of financial fear and by
a common belief that they were brought to their knees as a result of the free
market capitalist model so proudly advocated by the United States.
It also gave new life to the G-20, which will now meet again
in April 2009 in London under the auspices of
the UK
government. One of the unexpected consequences of the financial crisis is the
potential establishment of the G-20 as the new forum at which many of the
world's most pressing economic problems will be discussed and addressed.
For the first time, many of the world's fastest growing
emerging market economies, including India,
China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, will have a seat at
the head table. And, what's more important, neither the United States
nor anyone else has a veto.
That means that the G-20, whose members represent over 85%
of the world's economic output, is likely to be a more competitive platform for
diplomacy, ideas and intellectual leadership.
All of this is why the April G-20 meeting represents a prime
opportunity for the incoming Obama Administration to demonstrate that the United States
is willing to acknowledge the centrality of its role in the global financial
crisis and to take on the burden of leading a discussion of how to fix what
went wrong.
However, that summit could just as easily represent a forum
in which the United States
is left chasing after others who recognize the opportunity to capitalize on the
upheaval that the financial crisis has wrought.
November's Washington
meeting represented a missed opportunity for the United States to reestablish itself
as the only country worthy of being entrusted with leadership of the world's
financial system -- and the political and ideological responsibilities that
entails.
It is up to the next administration to ensure that it
understands how fragile the U.S.
seat at the head of that global table has become. Let us hope that the April
meeting does not deteriorate into the G-19 plus one.
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