Last fall, during Asif Ali Zardari's first foreign trip as head of state,
the Pakistani president met with Sarah Palin in New York City. The meeting occurred amid
Palin's other campaign cameos with U.S.-friendly world leaders, most of whom
could manage little more than an awkward grimace amid the onslaught of
flashbulbs. (Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo reportedly flat-out refused to
meet her.) But Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto and oft-described playboy,
looked delighted as he greeted--and then charmed--the vice-presidential
candidate. Zardari, who wore fashionable wire-rimmed glasses and a broad grin,
called Palin "gorgeous" and then added, "Now I know why the
whole of America
is crazy about you." Palin blushed. When a handler asked Zardari and the
Alaskan governor to continue shaking hands, Zardari gestured in the
photographer's direction while still staring at Palin and quipped, "If
he's insisting, I might hug."
Zardari's comment created a stir back home. Stories about the incident
splashed across the front pages of Pakistani newspapers. Pakistani Facebook
subscribers formed a group sarcastically titled, "Zardari should marry
Sarah Palin for the sake of world peace!!!!!" and railed against their
president's boorishness. The imam of the Red Mosque in Islamabad, the site of a pro-Taliban
rebellion in the summer of 2007, issued a fatwa against Zardari, claiming that
his behavior was un-Islamic and inappropriate for the leader of a Muslim state.
One could argue that it was particularly inappropriate for the leader of one of
the world's least stable states. After all, this was Zardari's maiden
presidential tour abroad--a time to shore up Pakistan's
and America's
confidence in him. His flirtation with Palin seemed to cast further doubt on
his capacity to rule.
Zardari's clumsiness presents a serious problem, not only for his country
but for the United States.
Since 2001, Washington's approach to Islamabad has been less a
matter of international relations than personal diplomacy, focused narrowly on
the country's head of state. This is partly a matter of necessity: Pakistan lacks
the civil institutions and governmental continuity that make deeper
relationships possible. And, as Bush officials geared up for war in Afghanistan,
they cherished their newfound, one-call-can-do-it-all ally, Pervez Musharraf.
Musharraf promised to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda on the Afghan border and
showed that he was trying to normalize relations with India to boot.
When, by late 2006, the Taliban was stronger than ever and Al Qaeda had reconstituted
itself inside Pakistani territory, Washington began looking for someone new.
The pro-American Bhutto seemed just the person, despite her previous,
less-than-successful turns as prime minister. But those plans crumbled when
Bhutto was assassinated in December 2007. Then Musharraf resigned last summer,
effectively leaving Zardari, at least in the eyes of many American officials,
as the last, best hope for the United
States.
It's an enormous responsibility and one that few expected Zardari ever to
assume--not least because he had spent eight of the last eleven years in jail.
He had been charged with corruption, money-laundering, murdering his
brother-in-law, and evading taxes on a bulletproof BMW. Once, he allegedly
attached a bomb to a businessman's leg and ordered him to withdraw his money
from the bank. When Bhutto was prime minister, Zardari earned the nickname
"Mr. 10 Percent" for the cut he purportedly took on government
contracts. He was ultimately cleared of all the charges against him, but Zardari
has often behaved more like a don than a democrat.
That will matter little to the United States if he proves to be a
capable leader. But it's worth considering just how many U.S. interests are at
stake in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, Taliban-infested, economically desperate
nation of 170 million people. Washington
urgently needs Islamabad's help in fighting Al
Qaeda and restoring stability to Afghanistan. And, as questions grow
about Pakistan's complicity
in November's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, the United
States craves a leader who can prevent full-scale war
with India.
Accomplishing all this would tax even the most gifted politician. Is the man
who flirted with Sarah Palin up to the task?
***
I met
Zardari in Islamabad
on August 18, perhaps the most significant day of his political career. For
weeks, he had been spearheading impeachment proceedings against Pervez
Musharraf, whom he blamed for failing to protect his wife. Just a few hours
before I arrived at the headquarters of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which
had been founded by Bhutto's father in 1967, Musharraf had announced that he
was resigning under the pressure, leaving Zardari as the most powerful
political figure in the country. A banner, staked into a slice of grass in
front of the building, read: "CONGRATULATIONS TO ASIF ALI ZARDARI FOR
LEADING THE MOVEMENT TO FIGHT THE WORST DICTATORSHIP." Inside, Zardari was
shaking hands and slapping high-fives with former prime minister Nawaz Sharif
and other anti-Musharraf politicians.
To get in the building, I had pushed through a throng of local journalists
and celebrating PPP supporters crowded near the entrance. Owing to the security
hazards of living near the PPP nerve center, most of the other houses in the
neighborhood had erected blast walls, some 40 feet tall. PPP-hired security
guards led me through two metal detectors and into a waiting room. Top
politicians from other parties milled around the hallways, hoping for a brief,
private word with Zardari. Finally, an aide cleared the room of these
high-profile characters, leaving only me. Zardari charged through a door. He
apologized for being late, ran his hand through his hair, and fell onto a sofa.
"I am half-exhausted, so if my answers aren't up to your standard,"
he said, "please forgive me." A framed photograph of Bhutto stood on
a glass table to one side. A picture of her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, rested
on another. Zardari blinked forcefully once or twice, as if trying to wake up,
and then flashed a pleasant, if forced, grin and told me how it was his life
had come to this.
Zardari was born into the world of landed gentry, where acting haughty and
debonair was expected. "Our name 'Zardari,'" he explained to me,
"means 'people with wealth.'" His father, Hakim Zardari, was a
middling feudal--middle class along the spectrum of landholders in the
Pakistani province
of Sindh--who combined a
sense of entitlement with raw, urban grit. Hakim built and ran a cinema in
downtown Karachi
called the Bambino. The vertical sign that fronted the cinema showed a flapper,
her arms outstretched as if frozen mid-jig, swinging her hips inside the top
"B" of "BAMBINO." As a kid, Zardari and his friends
loitered around the box office, gawking at passing girls and occasionally
fighting over the finer ones. He recalled watching El Cid and Cleopatra
on premier nights and humming the songs from South Pacific for
months.
In the mid-1980s, Benazir Bhutto, who had taken over the PPP between her
father's overthrow (in 1977) and hanging (in 1979), asked her mother to find
her a suitable husband. Unmarried women in Pakistan attracted scandal, and
Bhutto needed to be able to meet with male party workers at night without
creating a controversy. Meanwhile, Zardari's parents had been shopping around
their son, Asif, who was assisting with the family construction business at the
time.
The Bhuttos and the Zardaris were not exactly cut from the same cloth. While
the Bhuttos represented a political dynasty and were amongst the biggest
landholders in Sindh, the Zardaris were, in the words of The Guardian,
"looked down on as Johnny-come-latelies." (Hakim's feudal peers
considered his cinema business a plebeian endeavor.) Bhutto was ultimately
willing to overlook the social stigma of "marrying down." She was
reportedly attracted to Zardari's sense of humor and open-mindedness. Yet, when
asked in 1987 if her impending marriage would affect her career, Bhutto sniped,
"[Asif] will not be involved in my political career at all, and I have no
intention of visiting his cement works in Karachi."
The two married on December 18 of that year.
I asked Zardari if he ever felt that Bhutto was out of his league. "I
imagined myself as a knight in white armor," Zardari said. (He habitually
muddles cliches.) He wore black slacks with a cream-colored shirt, and, though
he no longer styles his mustache in the handlebar fashion, he keeps a neat
chevron trimmed close to his upper lip. Soon after taking a seat, he unfastened
the top two buttons of his shirt, reached in, and twisted a tuft of chest hair.
"I don't think I fathomed what she was until I married her. I just
couldn't grasp the ... giganticness of her personality," he added.
"There is a saying in my language: 'The camel only finds out that there is
something taller than him when he comes beneath a mountain.'"
In June 1989, six months after Bhutto was sworn in as the first female prime
minister of Pakistan, she
and Zardari came to Washington.
President George H.W. Bush had invited Bhutto for an official visit to discuss
the waning cold war. As Bhutto and Zardari sauntered with George and Barbara
through the Rose Garden, they struck quite a collective pose: the president in
a tuxedo, Barbara in a bubble-gum-colored evening gown, Bhutto decked out in
green (the color of Islam and Pakistan)
with a dupatta balanced precariously on her head, and Zardari in all
white, sporting a bulky turban. Despite wearing clothes that flaunted his
Sindhi, swashbuckling roots, however, Zardari behaved obsequiously around
Bhutto, as if a clause in their marriage contract required deference to her in
public. "He didn't know what to do," recalls Stephen Cohen, a Pakistan expert
at the Brookings Institution who attended a dinner with Bhutto and Zardari
during this visit. "She told [Zardari] to 'Go stand over there,' and he
did. ... He looked totally out of his element."
***
In the
ensuingyears,
Zardari seemed to settle into his role as Bhutto's number two. He stabled his
horses at the prime minister's house and spent his time doing business,
bolstering his unctuousness with her political influence. Shaheen Sehbai, a
reporter who covered the parliament during those years and who is now an editor
of the English-language newspaper The News, remembers Zardari as
someone who could be "warm and dapper" in public, and a "very
ruthless Mafioso type" in private. Rumors of Zardari's glad-handing and
arm-twisting swirled around the parliament soon after Bhutto first took power
in 1988, according to Sehbai: "We used to hear all the time that Zardari
was on the take." It was Sehbai who later dubbed Zardari "Mr. 10
Percent."
In August 1990, Bhutto's government was dismissed on charges of corruption
and abuse of power, and Zardari was thrown into jail. He stayed there until
1993, when Bhutto returned to power, bailed out her husband, and named him
minister of the environment and, later, minister of investment. In seesaw
fashion, Bhutto's government was again dismissed in November 1996 on corruption
allegations, and Zardari was, once again, put in prison. In 1998, Bhutto went
into exile in Dubai,
facing the threat of her own incarceration.
Zardari, meanwhile, languished in Karachi Central Prison, where he was
tortured--beaten with a rifle butt and slashed with shards of glass. Today, he
has a sickle-shaped scar on his tongue and a scar across his neck. "This
is my jugular vein," Zardari said to me, pulling down the collar of his
shirt. "They cut it open and said, 'We are going to kill you.'" I
asked him what kind of information his torturers hoped to extract.
"Basically, they were trying to break me. They had tried everything [to
defame Bhutto] but it hadn't worked," he said. His jailers offered to let
him go if he could guarantee that Bhutto wouldn't return to Pakistan, a
proposition he refused. Said Zardari, "They simply didn't want us to be
the leaders of the PPP."
In late 2004, Zardari was finally released from jail. He flew to the United States
to seek medical care for diabetes and back and heart trouble, conditions
exacerbated by the torture. In 2007, 18 years after their first trip, Zardari
and Bhutto were back in Washington,
courting the next generation of Bushes. Though George W. Bush's administration
strongly backed Musharraf, political instability and the growing pro-Taliban
insurgency in Pakistan
won Bhutto receptive audiences. Armed with lobbyists, she tirelessly ran the
think-tank circuit and cultivated officials, arguing that a power-sharing
arrangement between her and Musharraf would offer the best hope for quelling
the country's problems.
The Harvard-and Oxford-educated Bhutto enchanted Washington. Policymakers, regional experts,
and influential columnists seemed willing to overlook her two ineffective terms
as prime minister, her dubious distinction of having supported the rise of the Taliban
in Afghanistan,
and her husband's reputation as a crook. But Zardari kept a low profile. When
they were together, he deferred to Bhutto, staying out of her way and calling
her "The Boss."
Zardari and Bhutto eventually returned to Pakistan in October 2007, after the
government waived their outstanding corruption cases. The night Bhutto arrived,
after eight years in exile, suicide bombers attacked her procession, killing
more than 140 people. Bhutto narrowly escaped. Just two months later and only a
week after her twentieth wedding anniversary, terrorists targeted Bhutto again,
this time successfully. Pakistan
burned for days. The worst rioting occurred in Bhutto and Zardari's home province of Sindh. When Bhutto's family and
supporters buried her, Sindhis chanted, "We don't need Pakistan! We
don't need Pakistan!"
Soon after, the PPP produced Bhutto's handwritten will at a press
conference. In it, she had written: "I would like my husband Asif Ali
Zardari to lead you in the interim period until you and he decide what is best.
I say this because he is a man of courage and honour. He spent 11 1/2 years in
prison without bending despite torture. He has the political stature to keep
our party united. " Having inherited Pakistan's most powerful political
organization, Zardari faced a monumental choice: call the PPP into the streets
to avenge his wife's murder, and possibly plunge the country into civil war; or
sound a conciliatory tone in the hopes of defusing the crisis. Surprising
everyone with his maturity, restraint, and leadership, Zardari chose the
latter. Speaking in Sindhi at a press conference just days after Bhutto's
assassination, Zardari repeated, "We want Pakistan. We want Pakistan."
At one of the most volatile and dangerous moments in the country's history,
Zardari led Pakistan
away from the brink.
***
Zardari
had always believed that he could flourish in a larger role,
even while he kept up the appearance of being content at Bhutto's side. Like
Bhutto, who watched and learned from her father before she assumed power,
Zardari spent years watching and learning from his wife. His style, however,
couldn't be more different than Bhutto's. Whereas she relied on intellect and
charisma, Zardari relies on street smarts and cunning, qualities honed by a
childhood scrapping on the steps of the Bambino and more than a decade in
prison.
Consider how he rose to power this year. In the aftermath of Bhutto's
December 2007 assassination, Musharraf had delayed parliamentary elections more
than a month. When they were finally held in February, the PPP sailed into
power, buoyed by what some called a sympathy vote. Zardari didn't run for a
seat. He preferred to stay behind the scenes and play kingmaker. His detractors
predicted that Zardari would fail, owing to his checkered past. Yet he soon
formed a national government and four provincial governments by cobbling
together alliances with partners that Bhutto, had she been in power, would
likely have eschewed, including the party headed by Nawaz Sharif, Bhutto and
Zardari's arch-rival. Zardari rose above deep ideological differences and years
of backbiting to achieve some consensus across the political landscape. He
employed his personal touch--invitations to his home, photo ops, and
promises--and in the end he secured enough support to win the presidential
election.
But sometimes Zardari's charm hasn't been enough, and his penchant for
back-room dealings has shown a darker side, too. He doesn't handle dissent
well. His political opponents and even some within the Bhutto family accuse him
of murdering Benazir's brother in September 1996 to remove potential rivals
within the PPP. And, shortly after the PPP's recent return to power, he sought
to stifle criticism in the press by offering prominent journalists lucrative
jobs in government. Beyond co-opting the media, Zardari has surrounded himself
with jailhouse pals, business partners, and former exiles. Several of Zardari's
fellow inmates now occupy cabinet-level posts in his government-by-friend. He
tapped one of his doctors to run the National Reconstruction Bureau, an office
tasked with implementing local governance schemes. (The doctor now runs the oil
ministry.) Another, Dr. Qayyum Soomro, who treated Zardari in jail during his
torture, is now one of his closest aides.
While the torture nearly broke Zardari physically, the more lasting
consequence has been his deep mistrust of those who've not experienced the
same, even people within his own party. Zardari suspects many PPP members of
being on the payroll of the state's spy agency, the ISI. "These
intelligence scoops work in a very subtle manner," he told me (presumably
meaning "spooks") as his eyes darted around the room. Zardari has
demoted some of Bhutto's former top aides to make space for his prison buddies.
I mentioned that some believed he only trusted those people who have spent
time, in some capacity, in jail. Zardari acknowledged as much. "When we
are making decisions," he replied, "we prefer to take people who have
been through the mill, because there is a constant process of trying to break
us."
***
That
process has only grown in scope now that Zardari is president.
Even before the global economic meltdown this fall, the value of the Pakistani
rupee had dropped sharply and foreign exchange reserves had dwindled, leaving Islamabad with no cash to
buy energy or even food. (In November, the International Monetary Fund
finalized a $7.6 billion loan to Pakistan to save the country from
bankruptcy.) Weeks after Zardari took power, and just hours after he addressed
parliament for the first time, terrorists bombed the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, killing more than 50 people; and, in November,
gunmen based in Pakistan
went on a rampage in Mumbai, bringing India
and Pakistan
to the brink of war. It would be easy to conclude that Pakistan, never
the most stable place even in the best of circumstances, had come unglued. That
seemed to be the clear sense of the Obama administration, which has launched
Predator strikes within Pakistani territory. The war against Islamic militants
has gone so badly, in fact, that Zardari's government recently relented to
Taliban demands and agreed to the imposition of sharia law in the Swat Valley.
When I visited Zardari in his office on the night of his great triumph, I
tried to elicit his master strategy for managing the multiple crises unfurling
around him. "What comes next?" I asked.
Zardari paused and stared at the ceiling. "I was
sitting in prison, looking at the poverty, looking at the problems of the
nation, and thinking, 'How are we going to bring the country out of this
mess?'" His eyes still fixed upward, he told me that he considered the
problems he inherited even worse than conventionally portrayed. "I know
that the figures are all wrong," he said. Then, speaking with the
conviction of a man who felt that ruling Pakistan had always been his
destiny: "You see, I know where the state is going." The rest of us,
apparently, must wait to find out.