Put space exploration at the center of the new stimulus package. Make space the spearhead rationale for the myriad technologies that will provide us with jobs, wealth, and vital knowhow in the future.
The projected size of Barack Obama’s “stimulus package” is heading north,
from hundreds of billions of dollars into the trillions. And the Obama program
comes, of course, on top of the various Bush administration bailouts and
commitments, estimated to run as high as $8.5 trillion.
Will this money be put to good use? That’s an important question for the new
President, and an even more important question for America. The metric for all
government spending ultimately comes down to a single query: What did you get
for it?
If such spending was worth it, that’s great. If the country gets victory in
war, or victory over economic catastrophe, well, obviously, it was worthwhile.
The national interest should never be sacrificed on the altar of a balanced
budget. So let’s hope we get the most value possible for all that money–and all
that red ink. Let’s hope we get a more prosperous nation and a cleaner earth.
Let’s also hope we get a more secure population and a clear, strategic margin
of safety for the United
States. Yet how do we do all that?
There’s only one best way: Put space exploration at the center of the new
stimulus package. That is, make space the spearhead rationale for the myriad
technologies that will provide us with jobs, wealth, and vital knowhow in the
future. By boldly going where no (hu)man has gone before, we will change life
here on earth for the better.
To put it mildly, space was not high on the
national agenda during 2008. But space and rocketry, broadly defined, are as
important as ever. As Cold War arms-control theology fades, the practical value
of missile defense–against superpowers, also against rogue states, such as Iran, and
high-tech terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas–becomes increasingly
obvious. Clearly Obama agrees; it’s the new president, after all, who will be
keeping pro-missile defense Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the job at the
Pentagon.
The bipartisan reality is that if missile offense is on the rise, then
missile defense is surely a good idea. That’s why increasing funding for missile
defense engages the attention of leading military powers around the world. And
more signs appear, too, that the new administration is in that same strategic
defense groove. A January 2 story from Bloomberg News, headlined, “Obama Moves
to Counter China With Pentagon-NASA Link,” points the way. As reported by
Demian McLean, the incoming Obama administration is looking to better
coordinate DOD and NASA; that only makes sense: After all, the Pentagon’s space
expenditures, $22 billion in fiscal year 2008, are almost a third more than
NASA’s. So it’s logical, as well as economical, to streamline the national space
effort.
That’s good news, but Obama has the opportunity to do more. Much more.
Throughout history, exploration has been a powerful strategic tool. Both Spain and Portugal turned themselves into
superpowers in the 15th and 16th century through overseas expansion. By
contrast, China,
which at the time had a technological edge over the Iberian states, chose not
to explore and was put on the defensive. Ultimately, as we all know, China’s
retrograde policies pushed the Middle Kingdom into a half-millennium-long
tailspin.
Further, we might consider the enormous advantages that England reaped
by colonizing a large portion of the world. Not only did Britain’s
empire generate wealth for the homeland, albeit often cruelly, but it also
inspired technological development at home. And in the world wars of the 20th
century, Britain’s
colonies, past and present, gave the mother country the “strategic depth” it
needed for victory.
For their part, the Chinese seem to have absorbed these geostrategic
lessons. They are determined now to be big players in space, as a matter of
national grand strategy, independent of economic cycles. In 2003, the People’s
Republic of China
powered its first man into space, becoming only the third country to do so. And
then, more ominously, in 2007, China
shot down one of their own weather satellites, just to prove that they had
robust satellite-killing capacity.
Thus the US
and all the other space powers are on notice: In any possible war, the Chinese
have the capacity to “blind” our satellites. And now they plan to put a man on
the moon in the next decade. “The moon landing is an extremely challenging and
sophisticated task,” declared Wang Zhaoyao, a spokesman for China’s space
program, in September, “and it is also a strategically important technological
field.”
India, the other emerging
Asian superpower, is paying close attention to its rival across the Himalayas. Back in June, The Washington Times ran this
thought-provoking headline: “China,
India
hasten arms race in space/U.S. dominance challenged.” According to the Times
report, India, possessor of an extensive civilian satellite program, means to
keep up with emerging space threats from China, by any means necessary. Army
Chief of Staff Gen. Deepak Kapoor said that his country must “optimize space
applications for military purposes,” adding, “the Chinese space program is
expanding at an exponentially rapid pace in both offensive and defensive
content.” In other words, India,
like every other country, must compete–because the dangerous competition is
there, like it or not.
India and China have
fought wars in the past; they obviously see “milspace” as another potential
theater of operations. And of course, Japan,
Russia, Brazil, and the
European Union all have their own space programs.
Space exploration, despite all the bonhomie about scientific and economic
benefit for the common good, has always been driven by strategic competition.
Beyond mere macho “bragging rights” about being first, countries have
understood that controlling the high ground, or the high frontier, is a vital
military imperative. So we, as a nation, might further consider the value of
space surveillance and missile defense. It’s hard to imagine any permanent
peace deal in the Middle East, for example,
that does not include, as an additional safeguard, a significant commitment to
missile and rocket defense, overseen by impervious space satellites. So if the U.S. and Israel, for example, aren’t there
yet, well, they need to get there.
Americans, who have often hoped that space would be a demilitarized preserve
for peaceful cooperation, need to understand that space, populated by humans
and their machines, will be no different from earth, populated by humans and
their machines. That is, every virtue, and every evil, that is evident down
here will also be evident up there. If there have been, and will continue to
be, arms races on earth, then there will be arms races in space. As we have
seen, other countries are moving into space in a big way–and they will continue
to do so, whether or not the U.S.
participates.
Meanwhile, in the nearer term, if the Bush administration’s “forward
strategy of freedom”–the neoconservative idea that we would make America safe
by transforming the rest of the world–is no longer an operative policy, then we
will, inevitably, fall back on “defense” as the key idea for making America
safe.
But in the short run, of course, the dominant issue is the economy. Aside
from the sometimes inconvenient reality that national defense must always come
first, the historical record shows that high-tech space work is good for the
economy; the list of spinoffs from NASA, spanning the last half-century, is
long and lucrative.
Moreover, a great way to guarantee that the bailout/stimulus money is well
spent is to link it to a specific goal–a goal which will in turn impose
discipline on the spenders. During the New Deal, for example, there were many
accusations of malfeasance against FDR’s “alphabet soup” of agencies, and yet
the tangible reality, in the 30s, was that things were actually getting done.
Jobs were created, and, just as more important, enduring projects were being
built; from post offices to Hoover Dam to the Tennessee Valley Authority, America was
transformed.
Even into the 50s and 60s, the federal government was spending money on
ambitious and successful projects. The space program was one, but so was the
interstate highway program, as well as that new government startup, ARPANET.
Indeed, it could be argued that one reason the federal government has grown
less competent and more flabby over the last 30 years is the relative lack of
“hard” Hamiltonian programs–that is, nuts and bolts, cement and circuitry–to
provide a sense of bottom-line rigor to the spending process.
And so, for example, if America were to succeed in building a –in its
essence a 22,000-mile cable, operating like a pulley, dangling down from a
stationary satellite, a concept first put forth in the late 19th century–that
would be a major driver for economic growth. Japan has plans for just such a
space elevator; aren’t we getting a little tired of losing high-tech economic
competitions to the Japanese?
So a robust space program would not only help protect America; it
would also strengthen our technological economy.
But there’s more. In the long run, space spending would be good for the
environment. Here’s why:
History, as well as common sense, tells us that the overall environmental
footprint of the human race rises alongside wealth. That’s why, for example, the
average American produces five times as much carbon per year as the average
person dwelling anywhere else on earth. Even homeless Americans, according to
an MIT study–and even the most scrupulously green Americans–produce twice as
much CO2, per person, as the rest of the world. Around the planet, per capita
carbon emissions closely track per capita income.
A holistic understanding of homo sapiens in his environment will acknowledge
the stubbornly acquisitive and accretive reality of human nature. And so a
truly enlightened environmental policy will acknowledge another blunt reality:
that if the carrying capacity of the earth is finite, then it makes sense,
ultimately, to move some of the population of the earth elsewhere–into the
infinity of space.
The Zero Population Growth and Negative Population Growth have their own
ideas, of course, but they don’t seem to be popular in America, let
alone the world. But in the no-limits infinity of space, there is plenty of
room for diversity and political experimentation in the final frontier, just as
there were multiple opportunities in centuries past in the New World. The main
variable is developing space-traveling capacity to get up there–to the moon, Mars,
and beyond–to see what’s possible.
Instead, the ultimately workable environmental plan–the ultimate vision for
preserving the flora, the fauna, and the ice caps–is to move people, and their
pollution, off this earth.
Indeed, space travel is surely the ultimate plan for the survival of our
species, too. Eventually, through runaway WMD, or runaway pollution, or a stray
asteroid, or some Murphy-esque piece of bad luck, we will learn that our
dominion over this planet is fleeting. That’s when we will discover the grim
true meaning of Fermi’s Paradox.
In various ways, humankind has always anticipated apocalypse. And so from
Noah’s Ark to
“Silent Running” to “Wall*E” we have envisioned ways for us and all other
creatures, great and small, to survive. The space program, stutteringly nascent
as it might be, can be seen as a slow-groping understanding that lifeboat-style
compartmentalization, on earth and in the heavens, is the key to species
survival. It’s a Darwinian fitness test that we ought not to flunk.
Barack Obama, who has blazed so many trails in his life, can blaze still
more, including a track to space, over the far horizon of the future. In so
doing, he would be keeping faith with a figure that he in many ways resembles,
John F. Kennedy. It was the 35th President who declared that not only would America go to
the moon, but that we would lead the world into space.
As JFK put it so ringingly back in 1962:
The vows of this Nation can only be fulfilled if we in this Nation are
first, and, therefore, we intend to be first. In short, our leadership in
science and in industry, our hopes for peace and security, our obligations to
ourselves as well as others, all require us to make this effort, to solve these
mysteries, to solve them for the good of all men, and to become the world’s
leading space-faring nation.
Today the 44th President must spend a lot of money to restore our
prosperity, but he must spend it wisely. He must also keep America secure
against encroaching threats, even as he must improve the environment in the
face of a burgeoning global economy.
Accomplishing all these tasks is possible, but not easy. Yes, of course he
will need new ideas, but he will also need familiar and proven ideas. One of
the best is fostering and deploying profound new technology in pursuit of
expansion and exploration.
The stars, one might hope, are aligning for just such a rendezvous with
destiny.
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