Earlier this summer, the Taliban released a DVD that suggested Baitullah Mehsud was losing his mojo. Unlike other propaganda videos, which show Taliban
cadres conducting real ambushes in Afghanistan or firing rockets in the
heavily forested hills along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, this one
made me think that the Bad News Bears had landed in South Waziristan. A
couple dozen guys jogged in circles, ran through some military drills,
and fired their Kalashnikovs into the dirt, before forming a circle and
dancing a traditional Pashtun jig.
A few weeks after this
pitiful DVD was made available, a CIA-controlled Predator drone
demolished the "training camp." Then Mehsud's information center was
targeted and destroyed. In fact, since Barack Obama took office in
January, American drones have attacked Mehsud's territory 15 times.
Early on Wednesday morning, while Mehsud was receiving medical
treatment for a failing kidney at his father-in-law's home, yet another
missile struck, this time killing Mehsud's father-in-law, his wife,
and, as top Taliban deputies confirmed Friday, Baitullah Mehsud himself.
Mehsud's
rise-and his ability to draw the attention and resources of the CIA-was meteoric by terrorist standards. Osama Bin Laden had to bomb the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
before he warranted a barrage of cruise missiles. And while Mehsud had
threatened the United States, he hadn't yet proved his ability to match
bluster with action. What he had done, however, was to organize attacks
against U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and oversee a string of bombings
in Pakistan, including the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December
2007, according to U.S. and Pakistani intelligence agencies.
Mehsud
splashed onto the scene in the late summer of 2007 with a round of
suicide attacks on Pakistani forces. Having vowed revenge for the government raid on Islamabad's Red Mosque that July, he officially launched his jihad against the world's
second-largest, and only nuclear-armed, Muslim state. In August 2007,
his men kidnapped around 200 Pakistani soldiers; one of Mehsud's
teenage minions decapitated a soldier because he was a Shiite. Two
months later, on the eve of Benazir Bhutto's planned return from exile,
Mehsud reportedly said he would "welcome her with his men." Within
hours of her plane landing in Karachi, two bombs exploded near her
motorcade and killed more than 135 people. In December 2007, Mehsud
crowned himself amir, or head, of the Pakistani Taliban.
So,
does Mehsud's death mean the end of the Pakistani Taliban? Not by a
long shot. The Taliban are a regenerative militia; historically, the
death of one Taliban member has only spurred others to avenge the
fallen one's death. Several commanders are waiting to take over from
Mehsud, including Qari Hussein, Mehsud's ruthless deputy, who is
thought to be most responsible for training suicide bombers. Whether
Hussein or another lieutenant takes over, they'll be hoping to strike
back.
The question is not what they want to do, it's what they
can do. The fact is that Mehsud's brand had been pretty weak of late.
After a sophisticated bomb-and-gun ambush on a police training site
outside of Lahore in late March, one Mehsud deputy (and potential
successor) pledged to carry out two attacks a week until the drone
strikes stopped. The drone strikes didn't stop, but the attacks never
came. Then, shortly after a shooting rampage at an immigration center in Binghamton,
N.Y., that left 13 people dead this April, Mehsud told Reuters, "I
accept responsibility. They were my men. I gave them orders in reaction
to U.S. drone attacks." When the lone gunman turned out to be a 41-year-old Vietnamese guy,
people began to wonder if Mehsud's kidney problems were affecting his
reason. The decision to release scenes of prancing Taliban cast further
doubts.
But in the war against al-Qaida, where symbols, DVDs,
and audiotapes carry so much weight, Mehsud's death is a huge victory
for both the United States and Pakistan. I imagine his elimination
might be comparable to that of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi-even
though al-Qaida in Iraq continued after Zarqawi, it was never the same.
Without their near mythical leader (whose stature had grown as a result
of all the assassination attempts he had dodged), the Pakistani Taliban
may find themselves in a similar, declining trajectory.
Still,
in the often shaky counterterrorism alliance between the United States
and Pakistan, Mehsud was an easy target. Picture two circles, with
America's greatest enemies in one and Pakistan's top foes in another:
Baitullah Mehsud landed squarely in the overlap. The Pakistanis were
willing to supply the intelligence, and the United States was willing
the fly the drones to get him.
Now the hard part begins. Since
the CIA has demonstrated its ability to pinpoint "high-level targets,"
it will want to go after other top Taliban leaders in Pakistan, such as
Maulvi Nazir in South Waziristan and Jalaluddin Haqqani in North
Waziristan. But Pakistan's military and security establishment
perceives both men, who focus their fighting in Afghanistan and not in
Pakistan, as national security assets more than threats. And there's no
magic drone strike to fix that.
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