The Obama administration calls Darfur a “genocide” while offering to engage with the regime that perpetrated it. Middle ground or no, that’s a difficult line for anyone--even Obama--to pursue.
After months of contentious deliberation over U.S. policy in Sudan,
President Barack Obama has announced his administration's long-awaited
position on the largest country in Africa. In a statement released on
Monday, Obama said...well, not very much, really. Carefully calibrated
not to further enrage the Khartoum regime or the human-rights activists
irate over the softening approach the Obama administration has appeared
to be taking on Sudan, the president's missive offered a nod to both.
In one breath, Obama called Darfur an unqualified "genocide" and
announced that the U.S. would renew the sanctions, called the "national
emergency," now in place against Sudan. In the next, he talked about
engaging Khartoum and even mentioned "incentives" if the Sudanese
government cooperates with the U.S. (In an interview
with The Washington Post last month, the U.S. special envoy to Sudan,
retired Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, called such incentives "cookies" and
"gold stars," much to the chagrin of advocates who oppose such
engagement.)
The double-edged nature of the administration's Sudan policy
symbolizes the style that is fast becoming classic Obama: the cautious
stride down a thin, middle line. But this open-ended policy also
represents competing voices within the administration over what
America's approach to Sudan should be.
On one side are the old-school activists and analysts, like Susan E.
Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Rice is one of a small
handful of Obama appointees who has worked on Africa for more than a
decade. A bystander to the Rwandan genocide during the Clinton
administration, she has gone on the record several times to say she
will not allow another genocide on her watch--no matter the political
cost.
Her most vocal opponent in the Obama administration is Gration, the
U.S. special envoy. Gration, who grew up in Africa and speaks Swahili,
has argued that only a softer line on the political and legal future of
Sudan's president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, will allow for the U.S. to
negotiate on matters of human rights, or anything else, in Sudan.
It is hard to believe that Bashir really cares what America thinks.
After the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest
in March on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, he took
to the streets of Khartoum, singing and dancing.
Regardless, Gration and Rice have reportedly sparred for months over
whether it is profitable, or even possible, to engage Sudan's rogue
regime on anything at all. The result of these two competing positions
is that the Obama administration calls Darfur a "genocide" while
offering to engage with the regime that perpetrated it. Middle ground
or no, that's a difficult line for anyone--even Obama--to pursue.
Beneath the din of these sound bites, however, the administration's
new policy does offer something more substantive and promising: a
renewed commitment to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which
north and south Sudan both signed. Lest we forget, before 300,000
people were killed in Darfur beginning in 2003, at least 2 million lost
their lives in decades of civil war between north and south Sudan.
And without U.S. pressure, the north would never have signed the
2005 peace deal, which, for all its flaws, did indeed bring an end to
much of the fighting between north and south--for the time being, at
least. Over the past four years, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement has
largely been forgotten as the U.S. has turned its attention to the
conflagration in Darfur. Now it's time to return our attention to the
whole of Sudan as the Khartoum-based cabal continues to wage attacks
against its margins--west, east, south, and even north, in order to hold
onto power.
Like it or not, the U.S. is going to be forced to pay more attention
to Sudan. In 2010, Bashir is up for reelection. If the election
happens, it is almost certain to be a sham--and a botched, mock contest,
most of which the U.S. is supposed to pay for, could lead the country
back to war.
Then, in 2011, south Sudan is scheduled to vote in a referendum to
decide whether it wants to remain part of the north or gain its
independence. That decision would effectively split Sudan's million
square miles in two and change the map of Africa. The potential of such
a split is incomprehensible. These are the larger issues Sudan is
facing, and the ones we surely hope the administration is already
considering--whether or not they want to tell us about it.
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