Central bankers usually don’t like to admit that their economies are in recession. But
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did just that earlier this week
in testimony before Congress. He had little choice. The financial storm
he has been weathering has almost certainly unleashed a global and
national recession. The pain of the recession and the accompanying job
loss is already being felt by families and communities across the
country, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better. Bernanke
realizes that the job is far from done and he gave Congress his
blessing for a further expansion of government spending to stimulate
the economy. He did so without saying what exactly should be in the
bill.
When talk of recession emerged late last year, legislators in
Washington quickly passed a bipartisan stimulus package that featured
almost $120 billion in tax rebates. The plan was to combat an economic
slowdown by pumping money into the economy and keeping demand high and
consumption steady. And when second quarter GDP rebounded to 3.3
percent (since revised to 2.8) from the more anemic 0.9 percent,
economists widely credited the influx of cash distributed in the spring
courtesy of the Federal Treasury. Even before the initial Paulson and
Bernanke plan was presented, legislators were already discussing what
would go into their next "stimulus" package.
But the focus on stimulus is now misplaced. American families and
the overall economy would benefit more if our elected officials served
up a suite of policies that instead focused on security. This economic
security bill will be most effective if it combines provisions designed
to ameliorate immediate hardships with policies that provide access to
economic opportunity over the long term. In other words, we need both a
safety net and a stronger economic security platform.
The safety net should include provisions to help viable homeowners
remain in their homes and communities. No one will be served by
allowing massive foreclosures to spread across the country. Additional
federal funds should be deployed to state and local governments to
support efforts already underway. One such pilot program in
Philadelphia requires the convening of a conciliation conference of
borrowers, lenders, and the court before a house can be sold. With
additional public resources, these sessions can more easily lead to
agreements that allow arrears to be paid or forgiven, and for loans to
be modified so families can remain in their homes. Government action
should also support a number of perennial proposals designed to help
vulnerable families make it through hard times. These include such good
ideas as increasing the funding for food stamps, extending unemployment
insurance, and offering targeted relief for rising home heating and
utility costs. And then there is health care. This is no time to
forestall the type of expanded coverage promised by an Obama
administration.
Besides these insurance protections, constructing an economic
security platform will require dusting off an old-time virtue --
savings. Although lost in recent years under an avalanche of easy
credit, savings is an essential component of economic security which is
capable of stimulating the type of growth that can power the economic
recovery. This is because savings can be used to weather unexpected
changes in income at the household level. But increasing our collective
pool of savings also serves as a source of capital available to fund
the next wave of productive investments in machinery, research, and
infrastructure which can fuel long-term economic growth. Government
spending needs to substantially increase but it will have its limits,
and savings will be needed to fill in the gaps. And perhaps more
fundamentally, secure savings allows individuals to embrace the
opportunities and risks of our dynamic economy. Savings provide a
foundation for the risk taking, creativity, and entrepreneurship which
creates economic opportunity and drives economic growth.
A sudden increase in savings could exacerbate the recession,
especially if it occurs without expanded public sector spending. While
we may wish to see some consumer spending sustained, this may be
precisely the right time for families to become reacquainted with the
concepts of thrift and temperance. It is particularly vital that our
policymakers recognize the dynamic and multi-faceted role that savings
will play in our economic future and enact policies that facilitate the
savings process. What we certainly don't need again is the plea from
Congress that it is patriotic to keep on shopping. Beyond a rhetorical
packaging, it is more imperative that our policymakers create the
necessary support structures that can effectively facilitate greater
household savings. What exactly would these support structures entail?
Well, there are three primary components that can each be summarized in
a word: incentives, infrastructure, and inertia.
Our current incentives which consist of tax deductions and promises
of tax-free earnings don't work very well. They don't reach many
households with lower incomes and smaller tax liabilities and they end
up rewarding people that just move current assets around rather than
save money they otherwise would have spent. Instead, the government
should provide a direct match to savings deposits just as better
employers match the contribution of their workers to 401(k) plans. And
rules can be established so this incentive is targeted to the families
where it would make the most difference. Senator Menendez (D-NJ) has
proposed offering a Saver's Bonus to families that make a commitment to
save when they file their tax return. He suggests linking this bonus to
eligibility for the Earned Income Tax Credit, so it targets families
left out by current policy.
Better incentives will be more effective if people actually have a
place to store their assets. Right now, only about half of American
workers have access to a savings plan at work, and most of those are
focused on retirement. Yet we know that there are a number of
beneficial features to savings plans which serve as the essential
infrastructure and plumbing to maximize savings behavior. These include
economies of scale, limits on investment options, consumer protections,
and perhaps most importantly, a link to payroll deductions. It is time
we thought about creating a national savings plan that is accessible to
all workers, and includes savings for other needs besides retirement.
Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, Australia and Singapore,
have already implemented successful savings plan programs and provide a
blueprint for how it could be done here.
The system will work best if it is set up automatically. We have
learned from the growing field of behavioral economics that inertia is
a powerful force. It may be better to have fewer decision points.
Rather than deciding what a monthly savings allocation should be,
earnings can be seamlessly diverted from each pay check. This is how it
works from many current participants in 401(k) plans. Recent research
has shown that savings outcomes are highest if workers are
automatically enrolled by their employers into these plans and when a
sufficient contribution level is set as an automatic default.
It will likely take more than one legislative package to re-create
an economy based on savings, investment, and innovation. But events of
the day have made the calls for economic stimulus seem a bit obsolete.
While it may be appropriate for the U.S. government to continue its
borrowing on the international markets, individual households should
begin to consider how to realign their spending with their incomes and
savings needs. In the short term, we are in for a credit crunch, but it
was cheap credit that got us into this mess. Wise savings, followed by
wise investment will help get us out of it. In the long term, the
revival of savings and a rise in the personal saving rate will offer a
foundation for the type of vibrant economic growth which will in turn
generate meaningful economic security. Congress should help deliver the
message that frivolous spending is out, and tried and true savings is
in.
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