With SWFs currently believed to be managing over $3 trillion, what distinguishes them from central banks is that their mandate is to make just the kind of longer-term investments that today's financial crisis requires.
One of the major reasons why the current financial crisis is
so threatening is the absence of what Tokyo-based investor Peter Tasker calls
"strong hands"--long-term, patient, deep-pocketed investors that a
teetering financial system needs to function in times of great uncertainty and
stress. When Japan
suffered its financial crisis in the 1990s, the strong hands that invested and
kept the system afloat included private equity funds, insurance companies, and
banks. But today, those financial actors are too leveraged, weak, or frightened
to play a similar role. While most of the attention this week is focused on the
Treasury's rescue plan, in fact, the U.S. government's ability to serve
as the strong hands of the world is today constrained by both ideological
resistance to government ownership of private sector assets, as well as the
inconvenient truth that our government is the world's largest debtor.
But there is another source of funding able to take on the
role of the strong hands needed to help bolster the financial system in this
time of desperate need--sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). These investment funds
were established by governments around the world, generally those whose central
banks were so flush with cash that they needed to create new investment
vehicles to deploy it all. Some, like those of Abu Dhabi,
Singapore, and Norway, have
been around for years. Others, like those of China
and Russia,
are relative newcomers. With SWFs currently believed to be managing over $3
trillion, what distinguishes them from central banks is that their mandate is
to make just the kind of longer-term investments that today's financial crisis
requires.
But the U.S.
has done little to attract these investors--and in many cases, has pushed them
away. With changing global dynamics encouraging SWFs to take their checkbooks
elsewhere, the U.S.
needs to act quickly and aggressively to attract its fair share of this
much-needed capital.
***
For some time now, many U.S. politicians have resisted SWF
investment, asserting that the nature of their foreign-government ownership
makes them uniquely susceptible to political influence. It was only a few
months ago that Congress held seemingly endless hearings with legislators and
experts alike expressing outrage and suspicion about the political, as opposed
to purely commercial, motivations of SWFs. Earlier this year, it was SWFs, not
Wall Street CEOs, who were the bogeymen of the global financial system.
Several months ago, as the current crisis was in its
earliest days, SWFs from Singapore,
Abu Dhabi, Qatar,
Kuwait, and China stepped
up and provided capital injections to several banks including Citigroup, Morgan
Stanley, and Merrill Lynch. (Neither Bear Stearns nor Lehman received any SWF
support and have since paid the ultimate price.) These deals were done on
scrupulously commercial terms; but rather than being met with applause, they
aroused sharp concern among many U.S. policy-makers, troubled that foreign
government entities were taking ownership positions in the backbone of the U.S.
financial system "Will we sit back and let the [SWFs] of the world fire at
will, claiming our assets and extirpating our businesses?" asked Ohio
Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur earlier this year.
Now, many experts are arguing that SWFs may be among the
only forces that can save the U.S.
and global economy, to the extent that last week, Britain's secretary of state for
business, Peter Mandelson, suggested that SWFs ought to be called savior wealth
funds. But at the time when we need them most, SWFs are looking elsewhere.
SWFs that invested in American banks before the financial
crisis have taken a huge hit; The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority currently
shows a paper loss approaching $3 billion on its investment in Citigroup, and China's CIC has
racked up a loss of over $1.25 billion in Morgan Stanley. This poor performance
of SWFs met raised eyebrows back home, where leaders of otherwise un-democratic
countries found themselves answering harsh
questions from their own citizens.
So, with the current markets uncertain and political
pressure being applied from both sides, most SWFs appear to be sitting this one
out. Financial circles abound with stories of American bankers and fund
managers heading to the Persian Gulf seeking a
lifeline and coming back empty-handed. Bader al Saad, the managing director of
the Kuwait Investment Authority, recently made the point bluntly: "We are
not responsible for saving foreign banks. This is the duty of the central banks
in these countries. We have social and economic responsibilities towards our
own country." KIA has already taken a $270 million loss on its Citigroup
investment.
Those SWFs that are prepared to deploy their cash abroad
today appear to be doing so not to save the system, but to try to profit from
the shell-shocked, cash-starved investing universe paralyzed with asset prices
in disarray. Bahrain's
Investcorp, for example, recently launched a $1-billion investment vehicle
backed almost entirely by SWF cash from the Gulf. The stated goal of this fund
is not to recapitalize troubled banks, but rather to purchase at a deep
discount the very same distressed loans and structured real estate credits
(a.k.a. "toxic securities") that are a principal cause of the
unfolding crisis.
Similarly, a senior advisor to the Russian president
recently spoke of the "unique chance" that Russia has to exploit the
international financial crisis by using money from its government reserves to
help Russian companies purchase stakes in foreign firms whose share prices have
fallen. It appears that SWFs may have taken us at our word when we insisted
that they should invest for purely financial reasons.
And with the U.S.
at the center of the current crisis, it's not entirely irrational for SWFs to
expand their horizons and more aggressively deploy their funds domestically,
regionally, and on a more diversified international basis. Many SWFs have also
decided to re-direct investment to address pressing domestic issues. For
example, a number of Gulf-based SWFs, recognizing the inability of their
countries to produce enough food for their own citizens, have embarked on a
food security investment strategy, pumping billions of dollars into
agricultural projects in countries like Vietnam
and Cambodia.
"There are a lot of other compelling places to look for investments these
days," noted Sameer al Ansari of Dubai International Capital, which
earlier this year shifted its primary focus to Asia.
***
If the U.S. does not come to grips with the positive role
that SWFs can play in this crisis, it risks losing one of the most
important
sources of capital available to stabilize the situation. With SWFs
already
looking elsewhere, there is little time for the ambivalence the U.S.
has showed
up until now. Countries such as Great Britain
recognized the increasingly competitive global environment well before
the
current crisis and eagerly put out the SWF welcome mat; as U.S.
politicians questioned the motives of China's SWF, the British sent
their prime
minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer to ask them to locate their
international headquarters in London.
This coming week, the world's finance ministers, central
bankers, and financiers will gather in Washington
for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. On the agenda will be a
recently agreed set of guidelines intended to govern the investment activities
of SWFs. These Generally Accepted Principles and Practices (GAPP) are the
result of many months of negotiations among the largest SWFs and recipient
countries. A central component of the GAPP, which the U.S. pushed hard for, is
a commitment on the part of SWFs that they will eschew all political
considerations in making their investment decisions and focus exclusively on
financial ones--an ironic constraint, considering how much we would welcome
politically motivated investments in our economy right now.
If the U.S.
wants to maintain its critical role in the world's financial system, it is going
to need a little help from its friends. We don't need to go hat in hand, but
should make it clear to SWFs that, assuming they play by the rules, their
investments are welcome in our country. Americans should be comforted that, as
regards SWF investment, our country's national security interests are already
the best protected and most well-regulated of any industrialized country. Last
year's Foreign Investment and National Security Act created new, strict
procedures specifically allowing for scrutiny of SWF investments. But while
most SWFs may still believe that the centrality of the U.S. role in
the global financial system is worth preserving, many fear the uncertainty and
political risk that accompany equity investments in our financial sector, still
cringing at the memory of the 2006 Dubai Ports incident.
As the world's financial system experiences sharp capital
constraints, those with long-term, patient capital are in increasingly short
supply. There's a saying in financial circles that, in times of crisis,
"cash is king." So at times like these, when cash is sovereign, we
might be well-served to resist protectionist rhetoric and encourage, not shun,
sovereigns with cash.
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