On the one hand, US aid, goodwill and help in mobilising support from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, are vital to Pakistan...On the other hand, the alliance with the US is loathed too.
Given all this, one might ask whether it was worth getting rid of Mr
Musharraf. Although he too pursued an alliance with the US, he was at least
personally honest, whereas Mr Zardari is widely known as “Mr Ten Per Cent”,
because of his behaviour when his wife was Prime Minister in the 1990s.
If things go badly, many Pakistanis may come to regret Mr Musharraf's
overthrow. But it's no good crying over spilt milk. As I found talking to
ordinary people in the weeks before his resignation, his popularity had sunk
so low that he could have remained in power only through ruthless
repression, which would have fuelled support for the Islamists - and which
the Army was not prepared to implement.
The best thing to be said about the new Government is that, after prolonged
hesitation, three of the four parties forming it have moved to take
“ownership” of the tougher anti-insurgent campaign that the Army has been
seeking for several months. Without this political backing, it would have
been difficult to get the Army to motivate its men to fight as hard as they
have been doing - or in some cases, to fight at all. This in turn has
impressed the US Administration, and led to promises of more US aid.
And there's the rub. On the one hand, US aid, goodwill and help in mobilising
support from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, are vital
to Pakistan. Surging energy prices and the slowing world economy have placed
the country in a vice, with inflation soaring and power cuts lasting longer
and longer as the State fails to pay the electricity authority. The
authority, in turn, cannot pay for imported fuel. If things go on as they
are, growing public protests could bring down a government that desperately
needs hard cash, and quickly: after all, Mr Musharraf's failure to control
inflation was one of the main reasons that he was hated.
On the other hand, the alliance with the US is loathed too. In the North West
Frontier Province, where I have spent the past three weeks, that is true of
the overwhelming majority of the population. The accusation that “Musharraf
is an American slave who took US money to kill his own people” is now
applied to Mr Zardari, together with the accusation of corruption. So deep
is the hostility to Mr Zardari that there is even widespread (although
totally baseless) talk of him having been responsible for his wife's murder.
Almost 90 per cent of those who voted for Mr Zardari's PPP whom I
interviewed said that they would prefer Mr Sharif as president.
This public distrust won't stop Mr Zardari becoming president, because
election to that post is by members of Pakistan's elected assemblies, not
the people. In those assemblies, the coalition has a solid majority.
This support, however, may prove fragile if mass discontent grows. And
speaking to people in Peshawar, sweltering in 40 degree heat because of
power cuts, unable to feed their children properly, it is not difficult to
see how it may swell enormously in the months to come.
So the US and the European Union need quickly to provide about $1.5 billion to
the Pakistani Government to pay its electricity bills and damp down the
immediate cause of discontent. At the same time, despite Mr Sharif's
criticism of the US-Pakistani alliance, they should do their best to
maintain good relations with him, as there is a very good chance that his
party will dominate the next Pakistani government. None of this makes for a
very appetising choice. But as I said, it's no good crying over spilt milk -
even if the milk is turning pretty smelly.
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