With its quirky vintage cars and grease-stained floor, pat's garage
looks like a typically hip San Francisco auto repair shop. Until you
notice that the street outside is overweighted in Toyota
Priuses and inside, against the wall, stands a stack of $10,000
batteries made by A123 Systems. Drop one of these 185-pounders into the
spare tire well of the Prius, get garage owner Patrick Cadam and
partner Nicholas Rothman to tinker with it overnight, and you've got a
hybrid that can be plugged into any outlet for maxing your gas mileage.
Rothman, fluent in Japanese and a certified Prius technician, says he's
performed more than 100 upgrades and is "addicted" to keeping the car's
fuel economy at 99.9mpg, which is as high as its display goes.
Plug-in hybrids use 60% less gasoline than nonhybrid cars. Despite
their high sticker price, they've earned powerful fans, including
former CIA director James Woolsey, Google
founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, and California's Air Resources
Board, which has ordered that 58,333 be produced by 2014 as part of the
state's climate change policy. In September GM unveiled its Chevy Volt,
capable of driving 40 miles on battery power before the battery needs a
recharge from the gasoline engine. The Senate also managed to find a
place in the $700 billion bailout for a $7,500 tax credit for plug-ins.
Plug-ins are ready to hit the highway, but are drivers? Their
behavior has a huge influence on the performance of the technology
under the hood. Rothman can get 99.9mpg, but an average driver will get
80, an aggressive one, 60 and a negligent one, who forgets to plug in
the vehicle the night before and then drives like Dale Earnhardt Jr.,
less than 40. Argonne National Lab found that a bad driver who turns on
the air conditioner can squash the plug-in's performance by reducing
battery range from 40 miles to 15, which won't get most commuters to
work and back.
UC, Davis anthropologist Thomas Turrentine and engineer Kenneth
Kurani have spent 19 years looking at how the wiring in drivers' heads
interfaces with the engineering under the hoods of alternative
vehicles. Their interviews with drivers have flipped conventional
thinking on its head more than once. While everyone knows how much they
pay at the pump, none of 57 households surveyed kept track of annual
gas spending. None of the Prius buyers they talked to had ever looked
under the hood. One engineer told them he'd done an elaborate
spreadsheet of costs for different vehicles but ultimately bought a
Ford Escape Hybrid, the car that made the least financial sense,
because he wanted to let Detroit know what kind of cars he wants them
to build.
Plug-ins may be an entirely different story from hybrids like the
Prius. They offer far higher efficiency, but no one knows how to use
them or make the most of them. "There's a big behavior variable with
the benefits," says Turrentine. To measure that variable, he and Kurani
got a two-year, $1.8 million grant this summer from California to
upgrade ten Priuses at Pat's Garage and place them in 80 commuter
households. The cars will record every plugging-in, every trip, speeds
and fuel use. Some dashboards will have screens offering drivers extra
feedback to increase their gas mileage. Afterward the profs will
interview drivers.
The only thing the researchers can conclude at this stage is that,
despite knowing very little about plug-ins, the public is bonkers about
them. Hundreds of families volunteered for the study. They sent résumés and photos of their solar panels. One engineer offered up
data he'd been gathering on his own driving for two years. There was
even an awkward moment during a meeting when a state official asked to
be part of the study.
UC, Davis Ph.D. candidate Jonn Axsen designed an online game last
year to measure how 2,373 new car-buying households would weigh
tradeoffs between cost and fuel efficiency. He found that while nearly
62% of those surveyed wanted a car with gas mileage near 125mpg, only
12% were comfortable with leaving gas behind altogether with an
all-electric vehicle, probably out of fear of running out of juice.
This emotional trigger could fade as more drivers experience plug-ins.
"It's unavoidable that the world will change while we're doing this
research," says Kurani.
Google is seeking early answers, too, and doing so through its
forte: social engineering. This is a company that decorates the inside
of its bathroom stalls with productivity tips. (Example: how to
increase type size in a Java program.) The company has a fleet of six
Prius plug-ins, averaging 94mpg, and two Ford Escape plug-ins averaging
49mpg, all from Pat's Garage. Even though all the stats are up for
public inspection at rechargeit.org, there is no system of shaming for
poor mileage. "The more Googley thing to do is to set up a contest for
getting the best mileage," says Google engineer Rolf Schreiber. No such
contest is planned, but members of the company's climate-change group
have an informal rivalry to exceed 105mpg. "I could totally see
something erupting in social networks where people compare driving
styles," he adds.
Google has bigger plans than improving gas mileage. Like other
plug-in champions, Google wants to make hybrids a form of distributed
storage, pushing and pulling power to and from the electrical grid to
make it more resilient to fluctuations in demand. But simply
substituting coal-fired electricity for gasoline is not particularly
Googley, hence the giant solar panels that hover like comic-strip
thought balloons over its hybrid parking lot. A study by the American
Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy suggests that in some states
with heavy dependence on coal-fired power, using plug-in hybrids
releases as much greenhouse gas as driving unimproved Priuses.
"When you look at the horizon, there are chances for big changes
here," says Schreiber. "West Texas wind blows in the middle of the
night, when the electricity is almost worthless!" Hybrids plugged in at
night could capture that electricity and redirect it to the morning
commute or feed it back onto the grid at noon when it's worth something.
Willett Kempton, a professor of marine policy at the University of
Delaware, who runs its carbon-free energy program, says owners of
plug-ins should be given an incentive to make their batteries available
to the grid. Frequency regulation--the minute-by-minute balancing of
electrical current on the grid--is already a service worth $40 per
megawatt-hour delivered. He estimates that some plug-in drivers could
earn $2,000 a year by making their batteries available as reservoirs.
Now he's studying databases of driving habits to see if some groups of
people would be better candidates than others. "Some people have very
erratic and bizarre driving patterns, like volunteer firemen," says
Kempton.
For decades Americans have embraced the cognitive dissonance of
sitting in traffic during punishing commutes while claiming that what
they value about their cars is the sense of independence and the open
road. Are we ready to let rationality intrude on our sacred
relationship with our cars?