Whether it's a war, a natural disaster or a financial crisis, the government needs to maintain a balance sheet that is strong enough to meet national needs.
The agreement on the $700 billion bailout package begs the
question, "How are we going to pay for all this?"
In the three presidential and vice presidential debates to
date, the candidates have done their best to dodge the question. But it is not
an issue that can be ignored for long. For anyone who needs to be reminded of
the dangers of excessive borrowing, they need not look any further than the
crisis we are currently in the midst of.
One of the many lessons from the spectacular financial
market implosion is the importance of having a federal budget that is in good
enough shape to respond to national crises as they come along. Whether it's a
war, a natural disaster or a financial crisis, the government needs to maintain
a balance sheet that is strong enough to meet national needs.
Unfortunately, years of deficit spending have led to a
weakened position for our government. The wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan?
We are borrowing to pay for them. New spending for prescription drugs, homeland
security, roads, farmers and more? Borrowed funds. New rounds of tax cuts each
year? We put them on the tab. As a painful reminder of all this borrowing, the
national debt clock just ran out of space as we passed the $10 trillion mark;
now we have to pay to add a new zero.
And ironically, because of all this irresponsible borrowing,
the very package crafted to save the economy could actually harm it.
Since the government doesn't have $700 billion lying around,
a critical question will be whether or not our lenders are willing to front us
the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to recapitalize our flailing
financial sector. This line of credit will have to come on top of the more than
$400 billion we are already borrowing this year alone. And since Americans
don't have sufficient savings, we will have to turn to our overseas lenders to
help cover those costs.
If they become skittish about sinking more money into the U.S. when they
are not yet confident where our economy is headed, we will need to raise
interest rates - the amount we pay for borrowed funds - to attract the needed
capital. This in turn will increase the cost of private borrowing for
everything from homes to cars to small business investments; even credit card
rates will go up. Instead of borrowing, we could simply print money (a scenario
being discussed in many financial circles), but this would greatly devalue the
currency and lead to a reduction in the value of Americans' savings.
Critical in avoiding either of these outcomes will be a
credible commitment to strengthening the U.S.' fiscal balance sheet at the
same time we attend to the balance sheets of the financial sector.
How to do this?
First, Congress must commit that any monies that flow back
to the federal government from repayments or equity stakes taken in financial
companies from the bailout package go directly to paying down the national
debt. If the government does recoup any of the payments, it would be
irresponsible and damaging for Congress to try to use those funds for other
priorities such as tax cuts or new spending rather than making a dent in
repaying all that it has borrowed.
Second, the presidential candidates need to rethink their
tax and spending priorities. Both Sens. McCain and Obama have laid out budget
plans that would spend more than $350 billion in tax cuts per year along with
expensive plans for more on health care, energy and the military. Given the
tremendous outlay to which the federal government has just committed, the
candidates need to propose plans that would reduce the deficit rather than
increase it.
We don't have to balance the budget immediately. In fact,
given current economic weakness, that would be unwise. But we do have to get a credible plan in place if we want to calm global
markets about where the U.S.
is headed.
The wisest course would be to not commit to new spending or tax
cuts until the new administration and Congress have hashed out a plan to
stabilize the government's growing debt. This doesn't have to mean abandoning
their priorities, but rather prioritizing them while elevating the goal of
improving the government's fiscal position.
Now is the moment for both McCain and Obama to rise to the
occasion and put forth more realistic plans to deal with the government's
deteriorating fiscal position to help stabilize the government as well as the
private sector.
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