The best solution will be the method that most liberates voters to choose the candidates they truly like without fearing that honestly ranking or rating the ones who are their second and third choices might help to defeat their favorite candidate.
The realm of electoral system design is still a fairly
esoteric branch of political science in the United States--unfortunately so,
since no single detail has a greater impact on the quality of representative
government. The choice of an electoral system affects which candidate gets
elected and all other aspects of a representative democracy, including the
number of viable political parties, the quality of campaigns, voter
participation levels, the role of campaign finance, legislative policy and
more.
But despite the central importance of electoral system
selection, the subject has never received much attention in the United States,
especially compared with such topics as the role of money, term limits, voter
registration and, more recently, the security of voting equipment and election
administration. Debate over what system works best has been largely the
province of a handful of academics. William Poundstone's Gaming the Vote: Why
Elections Aren't Fair (and What We Can Do About It) is a welcome, though
flawed, attempt to bring these important discussions to a popular audience.
Poundstone focuses on exploring the unintended consequences
unleashed by the widespread use of the electoral system known as plurality
voting. Under this system, each voter votes for one choice, and the candidate
with the most votes wins, even if he or she has received less than a majority
of the votes cast.
The problem with this method, as revealed both by
mathematical models and by analysis of results from actual elections, is that
it can lead to victory for the wrong candidate. If there are just two
candidates, then a plurality is also a majority, and the method works fine. If
candidate A is favored by 55 percent of the voters and B by 45 percent, nobody
will disagree that A should win. But if candidate C enters the race and draws
votes from some supporters of A, this hypothetical three-way race could result
in A receiving only 40 percent of the votes, B still getting 45 percent, and C,
the "spoiler candidate," obtaining 15 percent. Although a majority of
all voters still favor A over B, B is declared elected under plurality rules.
B in fact is opposed by 55 percent of the electorate and yet
has benefited from a dreaded defect of the "plurality wins all"
method: the split vote, and the spoiler candidates who are blamed for causing
it. Some voters soon figure out the rules of the game and, not wanting to waste
their vote, begin voting for "the lesser of two evils"; others insist
on their right to vote their conscience, even if doing so contributes to their
least-favorite candidate winning. The voters and candidates with the most in
common--the A s and C s in this example--end up bitterly divided.
The problem is a very real one, as Poundstone points out.
The 2000 presidential election became the poster child for the defects of
plurality voting when a center-left majority in Florida split between Al Gore and Ralph
Nader, allowing Republican George W. Bush to win the state and the presidency.
This split-vote dynamic has occurred in at least 11 percent of U.S.
presidential elections. If cars or airliners had a failure rate that high,
Poundstone pithily notes, they would be deemed "unsafe at any speed."
In some U.S. Senate races in 2006, the candidacies of Libertarian Party
spoilers resulted in incumbent Republicans losing their seats, allowing
Democrats to take control of the chamber. So this is a nonpartisan dilemma; no
major party is exempt from having votes siphoned off by a spoiler candidate.
The question at the heart of Poundstone's inquiry is, Which
electoral systems will prevent spoilers and vote splitting, given that we don't
want to ban independent and third-party candidates from the ballot? In the most
interesting part of the book, he explores several electoral systems--approval
voting, range voting, Condorcet voting, the Borda count and instant runoff
voting, all of which allow voters either to rate or to rank multiple
candidates. Reading descriptions of electoral systems can be about as much fun
as watching paint dry. Poundstone, however, grounds his exegesis in personal
stories and amusing anecdotes. He also manages to keep his account lively with
an easy writing style and a sharp eye for illustrative narrative.
Poundstone does a competent job of weighing for his readers
the pros and cons of the methods he highlights, but ultimately he goes awry in
his analysis. The best solution to plurality voting's defects will be the
method that most liberates voters to choose the candidates they truly like
without fearing that honestly ranking or rating the ones who are their second
and third choices might help to defeat their favorite candidate. Also, that
method must do this not just in the mathematical models of the academic
scholars on whom Poundstone relies as his primary sources of information but in
the real world of rough-and-tumble politics, in which candidates and voters
don't always behave as expected.
This is important, because these mathematical models and
electoral paradoxes can break down in real-world situations. For example,
approval voting certainly has virtues, such as simplicity: The voter simply
"approves" as many candidates for a given office as he or she wishes
by making a mark next to their names. A running tally is kept of the vote
total, and the one who gets the most votes wins. Simple.
Or at least it would be if all elections were tepid affairs,
as they often are in academic and private institutions that use approval voting
from time to time. In those elections, the voters usually don't care much about
the outcome. But elections for public office are a different matter. There,
voters and candidates often care a great deal about outcomes; they are what is
known as "self-interested advocates," and that leads to a paradox.
Let's imagine that we're back in the spring of 2008 and the
Democratic Party is using approval voting to nominate its presidential candidate.
And let's say that I am a voter who strongly prefers Barack Obama but also
likes Hillary Clinton. I can "approve" both Obama and Clinton,
maximizing my voter choice. Unfortunately, however, by checking the box for Clinton, I might help her
defeat Obama. Obama knows that, so he is going to tell his supporters,
"Approve only me." Clinton
will tell her supporters the same thing, as will the other candidates.
Consequently, approval voting in the real world will have a tendency to revert
back to the dreaded plurality voting.
This is not merely a hypothetical consideration. Approval
voting has an at-large cousin known as bloc voting, which is the most widely
used electoral system in the United
States, used for thousands of local
elections. And bloc voting has had a strong tendency to encourage voters to
engage in single-shot or bullet voting--the approval of only one candidate
instead of several.
The system Poundstone favors most is range voting: Voters
approve as many candidates as they like and award each a certain number of
points by rating them--on a scale of 1 to 10, for example, with 10 indicating
the greatest degree of approval. The winner is the candidate with the highest
average score. Range voting is basically a more sophisticated version of approval
voting, which means that a rating for your second- or third-favorite candidate
can contribute to the defeat of your favorite. Range voting is used on many Web
sites for rating everything from the sexiest bodies to the best films, and it
works fine when voters don't care greatly about the outcome. But if range
voting is used for public elections, once again smart candidates will urge
their supporters to vote strategically by not rating other candidates--that is,
to bullet vote. So range voting also would tend to regress to plurality voting.
In short, range and approval voting sound good in theory but
have serious shortcomings that become apparent when one takes into account
human psychology and the blood sport of politics, with their disincentives to
honest voting. Poundstone describes the problems with approval voting in some
detail, but in my view he doesn't do enough to emphasize them. And for range
voting, he makes the claim that "no one seems (yet) to have found anything
dreadfully wrong with it." He dismisses concerns about strategic voting
with either method. His discussion of these methods would have benefited if,
instead of relying only on academics and their mathematical models, he had
sought some input from actual politicians and political consultants, the
practitioners who deal with electoral choices every day in the real world.
The other systems Poundstone discusses all involve ranking
candidates. The Borda count method has voters rank all the candidates from most
to least preferred by putting numbers next to their names. The rankings from
every ballot are added up for each candidate, and the one with the highest
score wins. This sounds easy--but, once again, a vote for your second choice
can help defeat your favorite. If voters are required to rank every candidate,
they can manipulate the outcome by giving the lowest rankings to the strongest
rivals of their favorite, as has sometimes happened in sports polls.
The Condorcet, or pair-wise, method uses voters' rankings to
conduct a head-to-head vote among all possible pairs of candidates, and the
candidate who beats all the others is the winner. This approach is good at
ensuring that the winner has a broad base of support, but it can also lead to a
"cycle" in which no candidate wins all the head-to-head matches. The
methods for breaking such a cycle are very complex, and it's hard to imagine
that these complexities would be tolerated in a public election.
The voting method that best liberates voters from the
paradox that support for a lesser candidate can hurt one's favorite choice is
known as instant runoff voting. This system elects majority winners in a single
election by allowing voters to rank their candidates first, second, third and
so on, and using the rankings to simulate a series of runoff elections.
Initially, all first rankings are counted, and if one candidate has a majority,
she or he is declared the winner. If not, the last-place candidate is dropped
from the running, and each ballot on which the eliminated candidate had been
ranked first now is counted for the second-ranked candidate on that ballot. All
ballots are recounted, and if at this point someone has a majority, she or he
wins; if not, the candidate now in last place is eliminated and the process is
repeated, round by round, until someone reaches the majority threshold.
What sets instant runoff voting apart from the other systems
is that your second or third choice can never help defeat your favorite
candidate, because by the time your vote moves to your lower choices, your top
choice has been eliminated from the race. So in real-world elections with
self-interested voters and candidates, instant runoff is the method that best
allows voters to sincerely express their preferences and overcomes the defects
of plurality voting. According to experts such as Nicolaus Tideman, instant
runoff voting also is less apt to result in strategic voting than is range
voting.
But, as Poundstone points out, some experts find fault with
instant runoff voting. In particular, they are troubled by what is known as the
"winner-turns-loser paradox"--the possibility that in a close
three-way contest the order of elimination can be affected by small numbers of
voters who change one of their rankings, which in turn flips the result. But I
find this critique unconvincing. It is based exclusively on mathematical models
and not on real-world experience. Poundstone fails to mention that instant
runoff voting is the only one of the methods he discusses that has a
significant track record of use in public elections, going back decades in Australia, Ireland and elsewhere. There are
data from thousands of elections in which to search for signs of the paradox,
yet no evidence of it has so far been found.
It is important to note that, pros and cons aside, all five
of the systems that Poundstone focuses on are better than plurality voting. And
his book performs a public service by engaging a popular audience in these
discussions. But the book has regrettable shortcomings that stem from what
Poundstone left out.
Foremost among these omissions is Gaming the Vote 's failure
to consider that when you select an electoral system you are also choosing a
system of values. Do you want a method that will elect candidates who tend to
be ideologically moderate? If so, the current plurality system is the worst,
because extremists who have a strong core of supporters can win a low-plurality
victory when the field is split among too many candidates. If you want to
ensure that the candidate who wins will be someone who has broad-based support,
then the Condorcet method works well. And instant runoff voting will produce
winners who have not only a broad base of support but also a strong core of
supporters. Electoral methods experts--such as Douglas Amy (the author of Behind
the Ballot Box: A Citizen's Guide to Voting Systems [2000]) and staff members
of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance in
Stockholm--recommend that you establish the values you are trying to instill in
your democracy and then design the electoral system that will achieve those
values. This perspective is a valuable foundation for the analysis of electoral
methods.
Also, Poundstone limits his exploration to "winner take
all" elections for a single office (governor, mayor, president or
representative of a single-seat legislative district). He mostly ignores the
group of methods known broadly as proportional representation, which is too
bad, because an analysis of them would have shed even more light on the themes
in the subtitle: "why elections aren't fair" and "what we can do
about it." True, there is a certain logic to Poundstone's decision to
focus on the type of election used overwhelmingly in the United States,
but because of it, he never really confronts the defects and paradoxes that
plague all "winner take all" electoral methods. The fact is, most elections
in the United States
are not even remotely competitive, with most legislative districts, indeed
entire states, having become one-party "red" or "blue"
strongholds in which three-fourths of the contests are won by landslide
margins. But the problem that creates these noncompetitive races is the use of
"winner take all" itself, not any particular variant of it. Perhaps
Poundstone believes that poking at the underbelly of "winner take
all" elections would be too vast an undertaking, but this omission makes
his thesis less robust.
Nevertheless, for those concerned about the state of
American politics, and for those who have never thought much about the role of
electoral systems, Poundstone's effort is a useful introduction to the idea
that we don't have to accept the flawed rules currently in use. If the United States
is to bring its political system into the 21st century, it will be necessary
for more Americans to ground their understanding of politics in an awareness of
the impact of electoral systems.
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