During the next debate, each candidate should be asked, "If you receive intelligence or warning that Israel is about to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, what would you do?"
Toward the end of Friday's presidential debate, the
conversation turned to Iran
and there was a long back-and-forth between the two candidates about what kind
of conditions should be set for any discussions with the Iranian government.
But neither addressed what could be the most important
foreign policy issue either might face as president: a unilateral strike by Israel against
Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israeli officials are clearly seriously contemplating such a
strike, as Iran is believed
to be drawing near to having a nuclear capability that those officials believe
poses an existential threat to Israel.
Such a strike would probably immensely complicate U.S. efforts in both Iraq
and Afghanistan
as the Iranians would probably retaliate against American targets in both
countries after such an attack.
During the next debate, each candidate should be asked,
"If you receive intelligence or warning that Israel
is about to strike Iran's
nuclear facilities, what would you do?" Sorting out the correct American
policy in such an eventuality is exactly the tough kind of call that will help
define the next president.
The wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan
both play to some of the key strengths and weaknesses of Sens. Barack Obama and
John McCain.
McCain, of course, was a strong proponent of the Iraq war, and
as the country devolved into anarchy, he also became an outspoken supporter of
"the surge."
Obama opposed both the Iraq war and later the surge, and
his opposition has, in part, revolved around the fact that the Afghan war is
still unfinished business, as is the fight against al Qaeda.
And so, as was to be expected when Iraq took center stage in Friday's debate,
McCain emphasized the success of the surge and the new counterinsurgency
strategy overseen by Gen. David Petraeus, while Obama needled McCain for
largely ignoring the failures and costs of the Iraq war between 2003 and 2007.
Lost in this discussion was the fact that while the surge of
some 30,000 American soldiers certainly put more American boots on the ground
in neighborhoods from Anbar province to Baghdad to "clear, hold and
build" them and was clearly an important element in the sharp decline in
violence in the country, there are several other key underlying factors that
tamped down the mayhem in Iraq that neither of the candidates addressed:
First, the appearance in 2006 of the various
"Awakening" movements, in which Sunni tribes once allied with al
Qaeda turned against it.
Second, the implementation of the Sons of Iraq program
consisting of some 100,000 Sunni militants, many of whom used to be shooting at
American soldiers, who are now on the U.S. payroll. Now that's a surge!
Third, the previous ethnic cleansings in Iraq and the
millions of Iraqi refugees who have fled their homes, meaning there are fewer
potential targets of sectarian violence.
Fourth, the large size and increasing efficacy of the
Iraqi army and police, some 550,000 strong, who are now beginning to operate
with some level of professionalism.
Fifth, the increasingly nonsectarian approach of Nuri
al-Maliki, the Shia prime minister, who has taken on Shiite militias in Basra and Sadr
City, an important signal
that the government will act in something like the national interest.
Sixth, the cease-fires ordered in the past year or so by
the leader of those Shia militants, the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose position
in Iraq
has weakened significantly since 2007.
These underlying factors made the surge a force multiplier
for the fragile peace we are seeing today in Iraq. And now that the surge is
over, it is those factors that might ensure that the fragile peace holds, yet
neither Obama nor McCain discussed how these factors might change their own Iraq policies
going forward.
A missed opportunity in the debate was also to hear from
each candidate some specifics about his plans for the size of the future U.S. military presence in Iraq.
McCain, who once famously said that the United States could
be in Iraq for a century if American troops weren't being injured or killed
there, never explained in the debate how he plans to ramp up significantly the
number of American soldiers in Afghanistan -- something he has promised to do,
at the same time that he continues to favor a continuing substantial U.S.
presence in Iraq.
As Obama noted during the debate, the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, has said that given the present commitments
in Iraq, it is just not
possible to now send thousands more American soldiers to Afghanistan.
For his part, Obama was not asked about the specifics of his
plan to withdraw from Iraq
in 2010 yet at the same time maintain what he has frequently termed a
"residual force" there that would handle key missions such as
counterterrorism.
According to military officials I have spoken to, such a
residual force tasked with counterterrorism, intelligence gathering on the
ground, providing tactical support to Iraqi military operations and protecting U.S. facilities
such as the largest American embassy in the world would consist of four to
eight brigades.
Depending on the exact size of those brigades, that could
mean up to 40,000 American soldiers based in Iraq for many years to come. For
obvious reasons Obama has never spelled out what he estimates his residual
force in Iraq would look like, as to do so would alienate the liberal,
Moveon.org wing of his party, which is laboring under the delusion that come
2010, if Obama is in the White House, there will be no U.S. troops in Iraq.
Obama was on firm ground when he attributed the
deteriorating situation in Afghanistan
to the diversion of American resources to Iraq. This is uncontroversial.
The initial U.S.
deployment to Afghanistan was
the smallest peacekeeping force, per capita, that America
has sent anywhere since World War II, while a RAND study found that, "Afghanistan has
received the least amount of resources out of any major American-led
nation-building operation over the last 60 years."
And today, there are four times more U.S. soldiers in Iraq
than in Afghanistan,
a country that is significantly larger in terms of both size and population.
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