Think that Palestinians nearing civil war and the ongoing collapse of a central Palestinian governing entity serves Israel’s security interests? Think again.
When a bomb exploded in the Shaja’iyyah district of Gaza last month, killing
four Hamas operatives and a 5-year-old girl, Hamas blamed Fatah, and moved
violently against its remaining Gazan enclaves. Fatah forces then pursued
retribution against Hamas in the West Bank.
Another round of intra-Palestinian conflict and bloodletting ensued, with the
leading pro-Fatah family in Gaza, the Hilles
clan, fleeing to Israel in
the hopes of making it to the West Bank.
Think that Palestinians nearing civil war and the ongoing collapse of a
central Palestinian governing entity serves Israel’s security interests? Think
again.
Those who are taking comfort in the televised images of
Palestinian-on-Palestinian violence or in the “propaganda coup” of Human Rights
Watch condemning both the Hamas government in Gaza and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority
are dangerously misguided. These events neither exonerate Israel for its own violations of human rights
and international law in the territories nor improve Israel’s own strategic environment.
Nearly 50 days ago, a cease-fire took hold in Gaza
between Israel
and Hamas. Under the terms of the deal, which was mediated by Egypt, both
Israel and Hamas would cease attacks against the other side’s territory, Hamas
would prevent other Palestinian factions from firing rockets at Sderot and its
environs, and Israel would gradually ease the closure that was devastating the
economy and daily life of the Gazan population.
The cease-fire is fragile, but largely effective--and the reality on both
sides of the line is incomparably better, if far from normal. When Democratic
presidential hopeful Barack Obama visited Sderot on July 23 and held an
open-air press conference with the world’s media, he was flanked by an
impressive display of rocket fragments. What went uncommented upon was that
absent the cease-fire, such a press conference would have been unimaginable.
One byproduct of the ongoing Fatah-Hamas violence is the endangering of that
cease-fire. Any Palestinian faction seeking a distraction from its domestic
misdeeds and courting its own public opinion is likely to turn, sooner or
later, to targeting Israel.
Renewed violence would not only return the residents of Sderot to their
shelters, but would also undermine any prospect of a prisoner exchange deal for
the release of Gilad Shalit.
The events of recent weeks have clearly deepened Palestinian political
divisions. Again, one is tempted to conclude that this might be a good thing
for Israel--divide
and rule, weaken the enemy. Again, one would be wrong. Or rather, let me nuance
that: wrong if one considers a two-state solution and permanent, recognized and
secure borders between Israel
and its neighbors to be a vital Israeli interest.
For supporters of a one-state solution or anyone keen on entrenching a
regime of segregation and discrimination in the territories, this might indeed
be a reason to celebrate. That is because a two-state solution, at least as
things are currently configured in the negotiations, requires a Palestinian
national movement that is sufficiently unified and legitimate in the eyes of
its own public to be capable of agreeing and implementing a deal. Palestinian
geographical and political splintering makes that more, not less, challenging.
Israel providing shelter to Fatah fighters, as it did recently with the
Hilles clan, and constantly referring to the P.A. leaders as partners does
those Palestinians little credit in the eyes of their own public. A Palestinian
leadership that is perceived by its own people to be a security sub-contractor
for Israel
is unlikely to be in a position to reach a historic deal replete with historic
compromises. The last thing we need is another South Lebanese Army. Despite the
warm words showered on Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and his security efforts in
Jenin, Nablus
and elsewhere, the sad reality is that Israeli policy is consistently
undermining him.
But perhaps most worrying of all is that as Palestinians lose hope in the
peace process, and look despairingly at both the Fatah and Hamas leaderships,
there is a danger of extremist Al Qaeda-style alternatives emerging. Such
activity may already be taking place today, as politics breaks down into clan
structures and groups like the Army of Islam appear. Hamas is not Al Qaeda, but
the alternative to it might be.
Most of the possible Arab mediators are reticent about expending political
capital on Palestinian reconciliation. Saudi
Arabia tried last year by brokering a Hamas-Fatah unity
deal in Mecca.
That has since collapsed, and the Saudis have withdrawn from the arena. Egypt, and now Jordan, maintain contacts with both
Hamas and the P.A. Neither Egypt
nor Jordan,
however, is rushing to fill the mediation vacuum, as both inevitably accord
primacy to domestic political considerations.
Of course, Israel has contributed, and not insignificantly, to the
hollowing-out of the Palestinian national movement--by failing to deliver an
end to occupation assassinating leaders, enbracing unilateralism and more.
But at the end of the day this is primarily a Palestinian story, and
ultimate responsibility for ending the violence and pursuing an internal
dialogue is with the Palestinians themselves. In the meantime, though, Israel should
be doing three things--if for no other reason, than out of self-interest.
First, take a hands-off approach to Palestinian domestic politics. Don’t
veto internal dialogue. The more we break it, the more we own it.
Israel
obviously has an interest in pragmatists carrying the day, but the reality is
that Israelis and Palestinians are in a conflict. For a Palestinian leader,
being Israel’s
“favorite” is a decidedly mixed blessing--especially when favoritism translates
into unsophisticated declarations (about “our partners”) and indifference to
actual Palestinian needs (like lifting the closure or freezing settlements).
Second, create practical working arrangements where possible--with whoever
can deliver on their commitments, and with whoever is willing to cut a deal,
even indirectly. That means maintaining and solidifying the cease-fire with Gaza and extending it to the West
Bank, and closing the understanding with Hamas for Shalit’s
release. It also means working with the P.A. government in the West Bank to improve daily conditions in real and
meaningful ways.
Finally and crucially, ensure that Israel itself avoids descending
into chaos and maintains its own democracy and government by a central
authority. Israel
is facing its own wild West Bank. Video footage, available for all to see on YouTube,
offers a shocking window into unchecked settler violence against Palestinian
civilians and property and close-range shootings by the military of unarmed
demonstrators and onlookers. Supreme Court rulings are ignored as the
separation barrier cuts deeper into the West Bank,
while settlements and outposts expand without respite.
Attending to this chronic erosion of the rule of law in Israeli society is
long overdue--and it is one challenge Israel can meet unilaterally.
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