Our prosperity is so deeply enmeshed in that of the rest of the world--and particularly with the prosperity of China, which has become our economic Siamese Twin--that turning away is all but unthinkable.
The financial crisis is raising serious questions about the
future of American power. Can the United States sustain the burdens
of global leadership while we dust ourselves off from what looks like a
near-knockout blow to our economy?
As Zachary Karabell has argued, we are now seeing a
globalization of finance that parallels the globalization of manufacturing that
began in earnest in the 1970s. Wall Street is no longer the center of the
financial world as wealth flows from our shores to the Gulf and Asia's rising states. The sharp increase in the quantity
and quality of consumption, which we owe to a combination of Wal-Mart (i.e., China), cheap credit, and historically low fuel
prices, has bought the United
States social peace in an era of stagnant
wages and rising inequality.
Now, however, that grand bargain has come to a spectacular
end, and it's easy to imagine Americans turning away from the world to focus
exclusively on our domestic troubles.
Yet we simply can't afford to look inward. Our prosperity is
so deeply enmeshed in that of the rest of the world--and particularly with the
prosperity of China,
which has become our economic Siamese Twin--that turning away is all but
unthinkable. Just as importantly, there is no plausible successor to America as
global hegemon. You might say that we are the hegemon by default. The real
question isn't whether America
will still be called upon to lead.
Rather, the question is: Where exactly do we intend to go?
When it comes to foreign policy, conservatives have focused almost exclusively
on fighting terrorists and rolling back rogue states and spreading political
democracy. As a result, conservatives have tended to neglect the economic
dimension of foreign policy. But we've now seen how global economic imbalances
shape the strategic picture.
Consider the following nightmare scenario: Just as the next
president begins a renewed push to bring peace to Afghanistan
and to consolidate security gains in Iraq, he discovers that the Iranian
nuclear program has advanced far further than he had hoped. Because of the Bush
administration's malign neglect, which ostensibly sought to "preserve the
options" of the next president, President ObaMcCain is left with only one
option: to launch a ferocious military attack on the world's most fearsome
rogue state.
Imagine what such an attack would do to global energy
markets, and thus to the global economy. Who believes that China and Russia
would be eager to lend the United States a helping hand in the wake of such an
attack given that both states have eagerly worked with hydrocarbon exporters,
including Iran, to restrain American power?
When Paul Kennedy published The Rise and Fall of the Great
Powers, the bestselling 1987 polemic that famously predicted the United States
would follow the Roman and British and Soviet Empires into irreversible
decline, he saw Japan as the world's ascendant power, a state that, like Venice
and Britain before it, would use its trading might to make up for its modest
size. This prediction was made shortly before Japan's so-called "Lost
Decade," during which economic growth almost slowed to a half and
unemployment inched steadily upwards. And of course America was on the verge of an
extraordinary innovation boom, which made talk of American decline seem faintly
ridiculous.
In fairness to Kennedy, he maintained that the unraveling of
an empire often takes a very long time, and that there will always be false
dawns. Kennedy's essential argument was that massive deficit spending was a
serious sign of weakness, particularly when dedicated to a military buildup.
Does this sound familiar?
The fight against Al-Qaeda has led to a vast expansion of
our military budget just as the boomers retire and as years of neglect have
left us with crumbling infrastructure. Tax
cuts haven't been matched by spending cuts, and we've essentially been
relying on Chinese largesse to stay afloat. It is a rather awkward position for
a hegemon to find itself in.
So how do we get out of this mess? It's not enough to
encourage a more democratic world. We also need to encourage a more
middle-class world. Sherle Schwenninger and Afshin Molavi have been arguing for
an economic strategy that fosters full employment and ample demand in the
developing world--a kind of Keynesianism for the BRIC economies. Both
Schwenninger and Molavi are on the center-left, yet the project of building a
middle-class world ought to appeal to conservatives most of all, particularly
social conservatives interested in encouraging stable families and fighting
poverty. Unbalanced growth in the developing world has made states more
unstable and bellicose--and it's also put severe pressure on family life.
Right now, China
suffers from severe interregional inequalities that threaten to spiral out of
control. Robust economic growth in rural regions in the 1980s has been followed
by an economic policy that taxes the countryside to benefit the export-oriented
big cities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has led to a mass breakup of rural
families as fathers and mothers leave home to send money back to struggling
children.
By reversing this pro-urban policy, and by investing more in
education and infrastructure in the interior, China would enjoy more balanced
growth. A similar approach could be embraced in India,
Russia, Mexico and
other emerging economies. This would tackle several interrelated problems,
ranging from the persistence of poverty in the developing world to the global
savings glut that helped create the current financial crisis to the global
labor glut that has put pressure on American workers. Americans would export
more and import less while the Chinese and Indians and Brazilians would do the
opposite. The end result would be a more prosperous and balanced global
economy, and, as an added bonus, more bourgeois societies are likely to be less
violent and more inclined to embrace liberal democracy.
And which country would be better suited to leading this
bourgeois world than a reinvigorated United States?
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