The Myth of Russian Resurgence

According to much recent commentary, Russia is back as a major power. The cover of the July 15, 2006 Economist, a magazine noted for its measured tone and sober assessments featured a phtograph of President Vladimir Putin, with a confident air and stern visage, next to the words "Living with a Strong Russia." New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman quipped that "Russia has gone from the sick man of Europe to the boos man." And in the Holidays (November/December) 2006 issue of The American Interest, Paul Dibb made the case for taking Russia's return seriously. Russia's resurgence, we are told, is indisputable; the only question is how to deal with it.

As with almost any broad generalization, this one is not entirely false. Indeed, it cannot be. Russia sprawls across Eurasia, contains 148 million people, possesses more than 3,000 strategic nuclear warheads, is the world's second-largest exporter of oil and armaments, is the foremost exporter of natural gas and is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Any country with these attributes will have strategic heft. But a scrutiny of its power reveals that Russia is far weaker than the reigning consensus suggests. Russia is not "back." If anything, the next few years may show Russia with its back to the wall....

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