Voters Turned Off by Party Extremes

As the major political parties fall further out of vogue with new voters in California, Republican and Democratic candidates are finding it difficult to call on the party loyal for support on Election Day.

Democrats and Republicans are declining, and the number of voters belonging to third parties, including Green, Libertarian, Natural Law, and Peace and Freedom, are shrinking. But there are growing numbers of independent voters or those who "decline to state" their party when they register to vote. These trends have been under way since the early 1990s and seem to have accelerated after voters ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.

Since then, the ranks of independent voters have swelled by about 415,000. Meanwhile, there are about 164,000 fewer voters in the two major parties. Today, 43 percent of voters are Democrats, 34 percent are Republicans, 4 percent belong to one of the other parties and 19 percent are independents, according to last month’s data from the California secretary of state. With no party in the majority, the large group of independents will decide many statewide candidate races and ballot measures.

So, who are these independent voters? An analysis of thousands of interviews from the Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Surveys shows that 68 percent of the independent voters in California are white, 70 percent are homeowners and 58 percent are college graduates with incomes of $60,000 or more. Independents are younger and more likely to be employed than members of major parties. Independents are very different from major party members in political philosophy, with most describing themselves as moderates.

By comparison, two in three Republicans call themselves conservatives, and half of Democrats say they are liberals. Free from political parties and labels, the policy preferences of independents in the surveys are an unusual political blend -- they often hold conservative views on fiscal policy and law-and-order issues while taking liberal stands on social and environmental issues.

Michael Flitterman, who was surveyed by the PPIC, declined to state a party affiliation when he registered to vote. "If I’m an independent, I get to choose," he says. Flitterman supports Schwarzenegger, a Republican, and U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, for the Nov. 7 election, because "I’m looking for people who ... have balance in the positions they take, not fully to the right or fully to the left."

The conventional wisdom that independent voters make consistent partisan choices at the ballot box has proven to be wrong in California. This is a diverse group that has grown to include more than 2.9 million voters. Today, four in 10 independents say they lean Democrat, three in 10 lean Republican, and three in 10 say they don’t lean toward a major party. PPIC surveys find that independents support Schwarzenegger for governor and back Feinstein for senator. In both cases, the major party candidates are comfortably ahead because they have the support of independents, as well as their party.

In the midst of a growing independent voting bloc, major party candidates also are finding that their party base is anything but secure. About half of the Democrats and Republicans say they are not strongly aligned with their parties today, and weak party allegiance has been the story line in this election. With the Democrats, gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides has consistently lagged in the polls. Four in 10 members of his party are not supporting his bid for governor. His appeal to Democrats to vote for him because he is their party’s candidate, and as a way of expressing their disapproval of President Bush, has had little effect. Support among Democrats has remained stagnant for months. On the Republican side, Schwarzenegger has yet to convince the majority of Republicans to back his $37 billion bond package for infrastructure. While they strongly support his re-election bid, many seem unwilling to go along with his spending plans for public works. As a result, the capstone of his "year of rebuilding" is in danger of defeat at the hands of his own party.

Schwarzenegger learned the hard way that independents are a fickle bunch, whose support can quickly ebb and flow. They tend to support the politicians who offer practical solutions for the issues that matter most to them. They reject those who focus on petty partisanship and ideological bickering. They gave the governor a 63 percent approval rating two years ago in the wake of legislative successes in his first year.

Last September, Schwarzenegger’s approval rating fell to 32 percent among independents when he led a divisive special election in which they opposed all four of his ballot initiatives. But reflecting their pragmatic political style, independent voters also have an uncommon ability to forgive and forget. This fall, after a series of accomplishments working with the Democratic-controlled Legislature, half of independents now say they approve of Schwarzenegger and a plurality support his re-election.

Todd Soliva, who also responded to the PPIC survey, says he is an independent because "Democrats are perceived to be extremely left, and Republicans are perceived to be extremely right, and I’m smack in the middle." He supports Schwarzenegger this year even though he opposed the special election last year. "I have more admiration for him because I do think he learned a lesson," Soliva says. And, "I think he’s really demonstrated that he’s willing to walk across the aisle."

In recent statewide elections, independents have sided with both of the major parties. Independents favored Davis for governor in 2002, and then supported his recall and Schwarzenegger as his replacement. Then, they voted for John Kerry, a Democrat, over Bush in 2004.

What lies ahead in the November election as the major parties confront this independent-minded electorate? The Republicans could lose a couple of congressional seats in California, even though the Legislature redrew these districts to avoid turnover. At the same time, Republicans in some of the down-ticket races for statewide office could win election, despite the numerical advantage of registered Democrats. And as the major party candidates try to rally their base, voter turnout could reach an historic low of below 50 percent if many of the weak partisans and independents decide to stay home.

Whoever wins next month, the challenge will be to govern in a state with an increasingly footloose electorate. The growth of independent voters and weak party loyalty means that more than half of the voters lack strong ties to the major parties. In the short run, voters will be attracted to making policies on their own through the initiative process and backing candidates who offer practical solutions. In the long run, a third political party movement that reflects the more moderate voice of independent voters may be in the offing. In this month’s PPIC survey, a majority of Californians said that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job that a third party is needed.

"That would be my choice," Flitterman says, "America is too polarized."