Declining to State

Is it time to place the two major political parties on California's endangered species list? If current trends persist, the number of independent voters may outnumber Democrats and Republicans by 2025.

Distrust of elected leaders and faltering confidence in the political establishment have increasingly driven Californians to the no-party label. New voters appear to be moving to the independent status so fast that we need to rethink the red and blue political map in the 2006 California election.

The state's population growth has added 2.4 million citizens to the voter rolls since 1990. Meanwhile, the percentage of registered Democrats declined from 49.9 percent to 42.7 percent, while the Republican share dropped from 39 percent to 34.7 percent.

During the same period, minor-party membership grew from 2.2 percent to 4.4 percent. But the biggest change in the past 16 years was a doubling of "decline to state" or independent voters from 8.9 percent to 18.2 percent.

Moreover, the move away from the major parties has been accelerating. In 1998, there were 1.8 million independents among the state's 14.6 million registered voters. Today, there are 1 million more registered independents than eight years ago, totaling 2.9 million of the 15.8 million voters signed up for the 2006 state election.

Eight counties have at least 20 percent of voters who are registered as independents. At this rate, a voter group that has no organized efforts to sign up new voters is on track to surpass the two major parties in numbers.

So, who are these independents, and what do they stand for? Based on thousands of interviews as part of the Public Policy Institute of California statewide surveys since 1998, independents are younger and better educated than major-party voters. Also, a higher proportion of Latinos and Asians, compared with whites and blacks, are registering as independents.

The data indicate that independents are newly registering voters (young adults, recent residents and immigrants), a trend that bodes well for the growth of independents in a state expected to add 8 million to 10 million residents in the next 20 years.

As for their political leanings, independents mostly describe themselves as middle of the road, while majorities of Democrats opt for the liberal tag and majorities of Republicans choose the conservative label.

In our March survey, 40 percent of independents said they are closest to Democrats, while 24 percent said they are closest to Republicans. However, 36 percent report not being close to either major party

Our polls indicate that independents share a deep distrust of government and dissatisfaction with the political system. In our March survey, nearly half of independents said that most members of Congress are corrupt.

Although majorities of Democrats and Republicans in our September 2004 poll said the two-party system did an adequate job of representing the people, six in 10 independents supported the need for a third party.

In today's changing political environment, campaigns must move beyond the partisan red and blue approach and reach out to the growing nonpartisan or purple vote. As the state's change agents, independents will be looking for ways to end the partisan gridlock they see as ill-suited to the state's challenges in the 21st century.

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2006 voters: Since 1990, the percentage of California voters registered as 'decline to state' has more than doubled.

• Democrat: 42.7%
• Republican: 34.7%
• Decline to State: 18.2%
• Other: 4.4%

Source: California Secretary of State's Office