The Real Crisis In Putin's Russia

What's the main problem in Russia today? Most people have a ready answer: President Vladimir Putin's strangulation of democracy. Yes, but there's a bigger one. That's whether Russia is stable enough to hold together.

Few Russia watchers would suggest the country is on the verge of disintegration. Yet it could be. Certainly, its present boundaries are likely to be altered. The epicenter for change is the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus, consisting of seven ethnic republics (Adygea, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan) framed by the Caucasus Mountains, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. It's the sort of place few outside the Kremlin pay much attention to. But we should, for it's not just war-torn Chechnya that's spinning out of control. It's the entire region, where a combustible synergy of terrorism, poverty, ethnic tensions, pervasive crime, corruption and radical Islam has left Moscow reeling. Consider recent developments:

Last December, in Kabardino-Balkaria, the militant Islamic group Jamaat Yarmuk attacked the local branch of the Federal Drug Control Service. Four of the agency's officers were killed and its headquarters was torched. Jamaat, which condemns the narcotic trade as a violation of Sharia, accused the drug cops of being in cahoots with traffickers. The group claims to have militant cells across the republic. An increase in attacks by armed radical Islamic groups -- some connected to Chechen warlord, Shamil Basayev -- prompted local authorities to declare martial law last summer.

In Adygea, Russian nationalists encouraged by Moscow seek to merge with Russia's Krasnodar region to the north. If they succeed, Adygea would lose the autonomy it won in mid-1991. The backlash in the form of animosity toward Russians is evident among the Adygei, strengthening that minority's own nationalist movement and heightening the danger of civil war.

Karachayevo-Cherkessia has seen a wave of assassination attempts against local officials, the most important being the slaying last October of Deputy Prime Minister Ansar Tipuyev. The republic's mountainous zones are a stronghold for separatists from the Karachai minority and Islamic militants with links to Chechnya. Armed clashes between radical Muslims and local authorities have overwhelmed the republic's security services, forcing Moscow to beef up its military and police presence.

The war in neighboring Chechnya has already spilled over to Ingushetia. The most recent example was an attack by heavily armed Islamic militants in the capital city, Nazran, in June. Some 60 people were killed, including the acting Interior minister and two other senior officials. The attackers also ambushed Russian reinforcements sent from North Ossetia. Ingushetians were blamed for the horrific terrorist attack on the school in Beslan, in North Ossetia. Already embroiled in a bloody territorial feud with the Ingush, Ossetians vowed revenge. Renewed violence between the Ingush and the predominantly Christian and pro-Russian Ossetians would almost certainly draw Chechen fighters into the fray.

Finally, there is Dagestan, a mountainous republic and a crazy quilt of more than 30 nationalities, sandwiched between Chechnya and the Caspian. Civil peace rests on an intricate apportionment of political power and economic wealth among the major nationalities, the Avars, Dargins, Laks and Kumyks. The resulting balance is delicate and could be upset by Dagestan's instability, which takes various forms. There have been incursions from Chechnya by Chechen and Dagestani militants, numerous attempts to kill local officials (Deputy Interior Minister Maj. Gen. Magomed Omarov was slain just last month), terrorist bombings and gangland hits by rival criminal networks. Moreover, Salafi Muslims, adherents of a purist version of Islam, are ensconced in several villages, where social relations and attire conform to their reading of Sharia.

The bottom line? These deep-rooted problems could lead to the progressive crumbling of Russia's authority along its entire southern border. That would undermine Putin, or even cause his fall from power. It would also transform Russia's geostrategic position. Already, radical Islamic cells are reportedly being formed outside the North Caucasus in regions such as Krasnodar, Staropol and Rostov. Mounting upheaval throughout the North Caucasus will weaken south Caucasian states that the West supports, particularly Georgia and Azerbaijan. Given the porousness of borders, a surge in transnational crime, terrorism and political unrest will be felt all the way to Western Europe. Yes, the Kremlin's creeping authoritarianism is worrisome. But the growing turmoil on Russia's southern flank is more so.