We do not lack for challenges in the coming year. Terrorism, the public financial meltdown and a still struggling economy command everyone's attention. Yet, one of the least discussed issues may prove to be among our biggest tests: Can America's unprecedented consumption windfall continue unabated?

The problem is hidden in headlines like, "Consumers Save the Weak Economy Yet Again!" They suggest that, despite the record contraction of U.S. production sectors, trillions of dollars wasted on sock puppets or cell phone stocks, and rising unemployment, Americans seem perpetually able to buy and use an ever more remarkable share of the world's output. And because of this relentless consumption, the economy keeps growing no matter how sick the nation's job market or manufacturing industries may be.

In everyday life, most people realize that they have to produce more, and get paid more, before they can buy more. Only kids on an allowance live the illusion of production-free consumption. Even then, of course, mom and dad need good jobs with steadily rising salaries to pay for all the Gameboys, movies, concerts, burritos and clothing their offspring require.

So how does America do it? How do we keep our shopping carts stuffed even as the nation's production, wages and employment suffer?

The biggest reason is that global trends broke just right in the late 1990s and allowed the U.S. to become the world's biggest outlet mall. Soaring stock prices led to easy money. People rushed to spend their earnings at the nearest Home Depot or CompUSA. Once there, they found stores chock full of ever more sophisticated products at amazingly low prices.

Financial crises in Asia and South America forced manufacturing countries to export products as cheaply as possible and try to earn enough dollars to stay afloat. Desert Storm I tamed once volatile oil markets. Non-market nations like China could more easily control labor costs and interest rates than their competitors, and they pushed global prices down even further.

Better still, to balance their badly battered budgets, much of the world had to restrain their own consumption. Instead of spending their funds at home, they sent their money back to the U.S., where it safely earned interest under the auspices of the world's last superpower. We were only too happy to do the consumption for them.

These fortuitous circumstances were a heck of a deal for America. But they may finally unravel in 2003.

First there's the mounting debt crisis. A big part of the reason why U.S. consumers have been able to "save" the economy is that they are subsidized by massive trade and state and federal budget deficits. Normally, interest rates would have skyrocketed under such conditions. Stock market tax windfalls, however, covered up America's trillion dollar red ink, at least for a while.

Then the markets fell. America now has a difficult dilemma. If it cuts back public spending, or invests in new industries that might balance our trade accounts, consumption will fall. Stripped of its last remaining pillar, American growth will contract for a time, perhaps severely. Yet, if the nation does nothing, and simply takes on more and more debt to feed consumption, interest rates will rise and shatter key markets like housing and autos.

Somehow we need to break out of our unbalanced consumption cycle, start making things again, and save and invest more wisely. But few are thinking about how we might manage that transition given the short term pain and political pressures that will almost certainly ensue. All too many of our leaders, and perhaps too many Americans in general, seem to believe that the "next big thing" will magically appear and fill the money-for-nothing void left by the new economy's collapse.

Then there's the question of how long the rest of the world will acquiesce in America's consumption boom. Although few want to think in such terms, America almost certainly owes some of its recent good fortune to the bad fortunes of others. As we have seen all too clearly among the Middle Eastern oil kingdoms, our consumption patterns can fund a terribly destructive backlash.

Even leaving aside Islamic radicalism, troubling issues remain. Much of America's manufacturing has been transferred to China, a nation often openly hostile to U.S. interests. Is there a point where China, or other nations that make our products and recycle the money we need to buy them, may tire of funding our prosperity? Will they eventually accrue so much market power in crucial sectors like manufacturing that they will start raising prices instead of deflating them for our benefit? What happens if currently widespread diplomatic displeasure with the U.S. spills over into the economic realm?

Most people think that trade will naturally liberalize our political competitors and make them more like us before economic conflict can emerge. Yet, decades of trade haven't done much to reshape the Islamic world in our image. The countries most hurt by recent fiscal crises in Asia and South America, in fact, were those that were trying to be most like us. It is not clear that our confidence in the motives of others is well placed.

To be sure, big picture issues command little attention amid more immediate concerns such as school funding or finding work. Yet, they seem inescapable. Spurred by several factors, America has deindustrialized significantly in the last few years. Our economy is seemingly one in which growth is possible without jobs, consumption expands without production, and purchases grow without income. Maybe that's true. Looking at our country's ever more unbalanced economy, however, I just can't shake the notion that somehow the question is going to be called in the not too distant future.