My neighborhood has three gourmet coffee shops. Each offers its own blend
of ironic artwork, freebie newspapers thick with movie and personal ads,
and exotic beans from distant locales. Day in and day out, all are busy
with healthy, literate patrons with one thing in common. None seem to work
for a living.
Over the past several months, I thought I'd been seeing an awful lot of
apparently talented people doing virtually nothing. My friends also noted
the burgeoning numbers of the fashionably non-working. "It's odd," one
said. "These are people who look and sound competent, yet they are choosing
not to work."
I wondered if these impressions really meant anything. Then the Bureau of
Labor Statistics released its latest jobs report last week. Incredibly, it
seems 900,000 Americans simply vanished from the workforce last month. Even
more astonishing, the number of people who could work but elected not to do
so grew by 1.7 million in 2001. That's the largest annual increase since
World War II.
According to the government's data, these aren't people who are discouraged
from looking for a job or recently unemployed. They are folks who once were
part of the labor force but now just don't care to work. "Let's roll," the
President says, is the motto of our newly energized nation. If the latest
numbers are right, "Just quit, baby!" might be closer to the truth.
The apparent trend towards non-work may explain the oddly muted public
response to the current recession. To be sure, there are now well over 2
million more unemployed Americans than in mid-2000, a whopping 40 percent
increase in a few short months. And 1.4 million workers have been laid off
since last March. These are people who are actively looking for jobs but
can't find them. They are still part of the workforce in the government's
data.
Normally, unemployment on this scale would trigger daily headlines of woe.
But most of the pain has fallen on the blue collar, working and middle
classes. Job losses have been particularly ghastly in old-fashioned sectors
like manufacturing, warehousing or shipping. Our leading opinion makers
long ago ceased caring about these industries. The faster they can be
shipped off to places like China or Mexico, the better.
The staggering collapse of the stock-market dominated "new economy,"
however, might have been expected to trigger a greater sense of worry. But
it hasn't, really. For many unemployed information agers, the recession
seemed a blessed relief, not a personal catastrophe.
When the fire abruptly went out from under new economy hotbeds like the Bay
Area, for instance, the buzz was that everyone had taken a vacation or gone
on sabbatical. Out of business? Great--let's go trekking.
For the first time in history, we may be seeing what happens when large
numbers of Americans simply refuse to participate in an economic downturn.
Rather than cope with the distasteful struggle of doing business in tough
times, hundreds of thousands of highly educated, talented citizens are
choosing to do nothing. "Gone fishing" is their contribution. Flash me an
email when the recession's over.
Perhaps this is a good thing. "At least they're not taking jobs from people
who really need them," my daughter says. "And maybe they're helping save
the environment."
Unlikely, I think. What seems to have pushed a large number of highly
productive Americans into coffee shops is the lack of politically correct
options for getting rich. During the 1990s, anything remotely related to
the new economy was somehow immune from the typical hostility business
skeptics heaped on just about any other business. Information agers were
treated like movie stars--fabulously wealthy, pampered, self-indulgent yet
cool.
Never mind that stock market misrepresentation and profiteering was
widespread throughout their industry. Nor did it matter that wealth
distribution was strikingly skewed. Web pages and stock funds, microchips
and modems were good and fine sources of income. Even the most pure of
heart, like Ralph Nader, could become multimillionaires by investing in
such enterprises without a shred of hypocrisy or guilt.
Now the new economy elite has nowhere to go. Only government and academics
offer jobs with an acceptably "progressive" patina, but each, alas, has
crummy pay. For many information age high-fliers, sipping coffee is the
more preferable, if not the only option.
If such sentiments help explain the government's bizarre survey results,
they may herald an even stranger recovery. It's unlikely that our country
has ever had so many of its better educated citizens take a rain check on a
recession. One obvious, and not just a little ironic consequence of such
behavior is that giant corporations will increasingly dominate whatever
survives of the new economy. If entrepreneurs take a powder during down
times, they will leave the field to the more enduring institutional
businesses many of them disdain.
That's already taking place. IBM, ATT, SBC and a handful of other corporate
logos are reshaping the information age as the now timid "geniuses" of the
last decade sit on the sidelines.
Stranger still, it may be that a "recovery" of sorts can be cobbled
together more from people quitting the workforce than by actually creating
new jobs. The government's latest data, for example, reported that the
nation's unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent from
December to January. Pundits hailed the news as a sign that the recession
was ending.
But America actually lost nearly 100,000 jobs during this period. What
happened was that workers quit the labor force much faster than firms could
fire employees. The nation's total workforce markedly shrank, and so the
difference between people working and those still in the labor market, but
not employed, also fell. As a result, the unemployment rate magically
declined.
Amid such confusing phenomena, latte lines may well be a more telling
economic indicator. If we can't lure seemingly dispirited, talented workers
from their coffee shop limbo, brewing a vibrant recovery may prove
difficult indeed.
Copyright 2002, Los Angeles Downtown News
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