It was inevitable that America's dot-com
economy would gobble up Super Bowl advertising. Adoring media
have wildly overblown both of them. Each somehow induces political
leaders and ordinary citizens to shower vast sums of wealth
on the fabulously wealthy for elusive promises of "community
development" or "new," perpetually profitable
industries.
Yet, while football-focused development is a relatively harmless
diversion, cyberfantasies are warping U.S. society in far more
fundamental ways. Spurred by unprecedented stock-market wealth,
land-use, tax and development policies are skewing economic
incentives almost exclusively toward a postindustrial, dot-com
society. Alternatives that might better distribute technology
and capital among the population and diversify the economy are
being sacrificed.
Today's dot-com fortunes owe as much, if not more, to broad
political and demographic factors as they do to novel technological
discoveries. The biggest "new thing" in America over
the last decade wasn't the Internet, but the unexpectedly huge
flow of foreign and retirement capital into once-sleepy equity
markets.
After the Cold War, security-conscious overseas investors pumped
money into the United States. Aging baby boomers demanded, and
got, highly favorable tax treatment for retirement investments,
including expanded 401(k) and individual retirement accounts
funded with pretax income, and lower capital gains when they
cashed in their shares. In response, a torrent of money flowed
into stocks. Annual mutual-fund and foreign U.S. stock purchases
alone rose from about $ 4 billion in 1990 to more than $ 200
billion in 1999, by far the greatest increase in U.S. history.
All this profoundly changed the logic behind the stock market's
performance. Cash-flush fund managers, for instance, invested
heavily in giant corporations with millions of outstanding shares
so they could move large blocks of money in and out of the market.
By the late 1990s, defying years of retrenchment by large firms
and the rise of small and mid-size enterprises, giant-company
stocks outperformed the rest of the market.
Investors kept demanding returns much higher than even the
big-cap run-up could possibly justify. They began searching
for places to put money that were not constrained by traditional
accounting and business principles. Information-age electronics
and telecommunications companies claiming to have discovered
a "new," limitless kind of industry fit these requirements.
By 1998, prices of "technology" firms--many, in fact,
were retail or marketing operations possessing pedestrian skills,
few technical employees and no earnings or likely prospects
for generating them--were rising at astronomical rates. During
1999, they accounted for nearly 80% of the $ 5.2-trillion increase
in the total value of U.S. corporate equities. Despite solid
profits, high productivity and robust consumer spending, the
combined value of America's bedrock, high-employment industrial
stocks--aerospace, utilities, insurance, banking, autos, travel,
real estate, food and health--did not grow at all. About 70%
of all U.S. stocks were negative for the year.
Whether these trends presage a market meltdown is anyone's
guess. More certain is the influence the dot-com economy exerts
over the public imagination. Enticed by visions of staggering
wealth accumulated by white-collar whiz kids toiling in campus-like
buildings, public officials are gambling as never before on
a postindustrial future.
Throughout the country, urban land-use policies are increasingly
and exclusively oriented toward high-end activities believed
essential for entering the information age. Factory or warehouse
projects proposing "old" economic elements or, even
worse, fostering traditional working- and middle-class jobs,
are opposed on a variety of environmental, zoning and similar
grounds. Reflecting such sentiments, information-age companies
receive billions of dollars in relocation incentives, tax breaks,
training grants and expedited permitting.
Dot-com CEOs are proving as adept at corporate welfare as sports-team
owners who lobby for publicly financed facilities. Internet
retailers exploit mail-order state-tax exemptions to offer products
at prices local stores, which must pay such levies, can't match.
Efforts to close such potentially devastating loopholes are
ineffective against the dot-com juggernaut. Few even noticed
when Congress immunized software firms from Y2K programming
negligence liability, though the same protections have never
been extended to other critical, but lawsuit-plagued industries
like aerospace and pharmaceuticals.
Even the hyperbole is similar. When accounting groups proposed
to end the chronically unfair advantage that stock-option compensation
(which isn't charged against business revenues) enjoys over
wages (which are), dot-com advocates went ballistic. "If
we have to record a reduction in income to offer options "
one said in a widely circulated report, "we won't be able
to keep employees. It would destroy all American business and
Western civilization!"
Behind all this is the conviction that disfavored industries
are naturally fading away. Service-led growth, and the dramatic
inequality increasingly evident in media-favored cities like
New York, San Francisco and Washington, may be troubling but
under such circumstances, unavoidable. Thankfully, dot-com opulence
is more than adequately replacing the sectors of the past.
But it isn't. U.S. job growth in the 1990s was the slowest
since the 1950s. Employment grew just 1.8 times faster than
the population expanded, compared with more than 2.6 times as
fast during the previous three decades. For the first time,
retail and service occupations, the lowest paid of all major
industry groups, now comprise nearly half of U.S. employment,
up from just 37% in 1980. The dot-com boom did nothing to halt
America's manufacturing decline. Production employment fell
to just 14% of the total economy, an all-time low.
More troubling still, U.S. job growth was least impressive
in precisely those regions that most fully realized the dot-com
model of service and retail-sector expansion. Communities with
the greatest average service-employment growth and manufacturing-job
losses, including most of the politically influential Northeast,
grew at just half the national rate. While many spun showcase
"high-tech" projects as evidence of an urban comeback,
U.S. core cities grew much less rapidly, relative to the nation,
than in previous decades.
At the same time, regions that fostered full-spectrum economic
growth in lieu of service-sector expansion--Riverside-San Bernardino,
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Dallas, for example--grew far more rapidly,
and in more balanced ways, than the national norm. Manufacturing,
distribution and high-tech enterprises jointly expanded as they
absorbed middle- and working-class families displaced from deindustrializing
urban centers. Yet, few were hailed as "miracles";
rather, they were condemned as lowbrow sprawl.
Therein lies the deepening paradoxes of the dot-com era. Why
do we celebrate regions that promote unbalanced inequality but
revile those that foster more economic opportunities for everyone?
Why do we burden wage income and savings with regressive taxes
but exempt stocks from similar treatment? Why is it so much
harder to open a factory in most urban areas than to build high-end,
exclusive development projects? Why do we act as if a postindustrial
future is so certain when the "old" and "new"
economies flourish together when given the chance?
America's peace dividend--the tremendous capital surge throughout
the 1990s--is being squandered on a strikingly limited, elitist
myth. Rather than wait for a catastrophic "correction"
to fix the problem, incentives presently skewed against more
equitable alternatives should be redressed. Most critical is
to end the politically based distortions that artificially inflate
dot-com and related sectors. Working wages and savings should
be afforded the same tax treatment as stock and equity investments.
Local subsidies and permitting procedures that discriminate
against working- and middle-class development should be constrained
by industry-neutral, readily understood standards and rules.
It's possible that Internet entrepreneurs and coffee shops
will still define America's destiny even with a level economic
playing field. Forcing such a result seems an unnecessary risk.
Point-and-click mail order has made a few wealthy and influential,
but it's time to assure comparable opportunities for those pursuing
other, equally promising game plans.
Copyright 2000, Los Angeles Times
Join the Conversation
Please log in below through Disqus, Twitter or Facebook to participate in the conversation. Your email address, which is required for a Disqus account, will not be publicly displayed. If you sign in with Twitter or Facebook, you have the option of publishing your comments in those streams as well.
Your tax-deductible gift will help bring promising new voices and ideas into our nation's discourse, and help shape the future of vital public policies.
Join the Conversation
Please log in below through Disqus, Twitter or Facebook to participate in the conversation. Your email address, which is required for a Disqus account, will not be publicly displayed. If you sign in with Twitter or Facebook, you have the option of publishing your comments in those streams as well.