In his State of the Union address tonight, President Clinton plans to ask Congress for as much as $50 million to provide computers and Internet access to poor households. Earlier this month Bill Bradley bemoaned the comparatively low rates of Internet access among such groups; Al Gore frequently boasts that the administration has a $2.25 billion program to link schools and libraries to the Internet. "It's the new new thing in politics," says Timothy Adams, a Washington-based consultant who is studying the digital divide for the George W. Bush presidential campaign. "Every politician wants to be tech-savvy yet also grounded in representative politics. It's the perfect compassionate message."But is the digital divide really a problem that requires a government solution? At first glance, the numbers suggest so. Households with incomes of $75,000 and higher are at least 20 times as likely to have access to the Internet than those at lower income levels and nine times as likely to own a computer. Even at the highest income levels, blacks are slightly less likely than whites to own a computer or have Internet access at home. And while blacks make up 10% of the nation's work force, they hold only 5% of information technology jobs. Hispanics comprise 9% of the overall work force, and occupy just 4% of IT jobs.

But if the digital divide is defined solely as a question of who does and does not have the ability to surf the Web, then it's hardly an intractable crisis. The average price of a fully loaded desktop computer has fallen 44%, to $844, in the past three years, according to market-research firm PC Data Inc. That's still a big investment for a lower-income family, but most analysts foresee those price tags dropping even further.

PC ownership has reached a near-saturation point among middle- and upper-income families. If computer makers wish to maintain the extraordinary revenue growth they've seen over the last half decade, they will soon be forced to seek out new first-time buyers. Some PC companies no doubt will push hard to find willing buyers among the 13.5 million U.S. households with annual incomes less than $25,000, 90% of which do not own a computer. "It's a viable market, and the demand is there," says Eric Schmitt of Forrester Research.

For those who can't afford a new computer, there will always be a brisk market for secondhand PCs. In addition, smaller , less expensive hand-held devices will offer alternatives to computers at even lower prices. Internet access rates are likely to fall too. In fact, in the never-ending fight for "eyeballs" online, companies such as AltaVista, Excite At Home and Yahoo! have recently announced plans to offer free Internet service.

Predictably, some of these trends have already begun to close the divide. This year, Forrester Research expects African- American households to outpace all other demographic groups in the rate at which they will make their initial forays online.

Even the scarcity of minorities in information industries is a problem the market will likely mitigate. The Information Technology Association of America estimates that some 400,000 jobs in the sector are vacant because companies can't find skilled workers. Each year, as a result of severe worker shortages, software and hardware manufacturers expend precious political capital lobbying Congress to raise the annual cap on workers they can hire from overseas. And every year, after much debate, Congress raises the yearly limit.

But Silicon Valley realizes it needs to develop more homegrown talent. ITAA will unveil a new "digital opportunity" initiative under which its member companies will offer internships to talented minority students.

Some companies have already created their own programs. Cisco Systems Inc. started its Cisco Networking Academy two years ago. It donates equipment to high schools and community centers in empowerment zones. Students learn how to build, design and maintain networks. Last year , the company spent $20 million on the academies, which now exist in some 2,500 locations; this year they've budgeted $30 million. A graduate of Cisco's two-year program can enter the job market with a starting salary between $30,000 and $60,000 per year. Hewlett-Packard, 3Com, Intel, Lucent Technologies and Microsoft run similar programs.

Government can play a small but useful role. As part of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, telecom companies pledged to deploy new services-such as high-speed Internet access and digital cable-to rural areas and inner cities. The Federal Communications Commission should keep a watchful eye on megafirms like America Online-Time Warner to make sure they live up to this commitment. Policy makers should also consider offering tax incentives to companies that provide technical school-to-work training. For the poorest of the poor, government might consider subsidizing public street-corner Internet kiosks, as it did with public telephones decades ago. But we don't need massive new government programs to bridge the ever-dwindling digital divide.