No sooner had President Clinton unveiled his plan to save Social
Security than it was savaged as big government run amok.
Republicans are reacting so hysterically precisely because the
plan -- a solid proposal surrounded by poll-driven vacuities in his State of
the Union address -- is not wild liberalism. Rather, it is fiscal conservatism
-- what Republicans used to stand for before they invented supply-side economics
-- devoted to progressive ends.
The gist of Mr. Clinton's proposal, remember, is not to spend
the budget surplus but to save it. Three-quarters of the budget surplus would
go to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which would save some of
the money directly and use most of it to reduce the national debt. With the
Government soaking up less private savings, more would be available for corporate
investment. Most economists -- and especially conservative economists -- consider
this the best way to boost economic productivity.
Indeed, Republicans do not dispute the conservative merits of
debt reduction. Instead, they throw up their hands and moan that it is not realistic.
"Knowing the proclivities of democracy, and the Congress particularly,"
Representative Bill Archer, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee,
sighed last week, "it's very unlikely that that will happen." But the Republicans,
not least Mr. Archer, are the very ones who are insuring it won't happen with
their insistence that the surplus go toward tax cuts instead. It is reminiscent
of the protection racketeer who sadly warns that the neighborhood is a dangerous
place when he's the one who's making it dangerous.
So Republicans aren't arguing against debt reduction on economic
grounds. Instead, they say the budget surplus "belongs to the American people."
But what does this mean? Mr. Clinton, after all, isn't planning on giving the
surplus to foreigners or setting it on fire; he wants to put it toward an end
that benefits the American economy as a whole.
The Republicans, by contrast, are making a distributional argument.
They want the surplus to reduce income taxes, most of which are paid by the
well off. Mr. Clinton's plan, then, is concerned with enlarging the size of
the economic pie, while the Republicans are more interested in how to divide
it up.
According to conservatives, the most dangerous part of the Clinton
proposal is investing a portion the Social Security trust fund in stocks, so
that, in the long run, the higher returns help keep the program solvent. As
a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Kevin Hassett, put it, "If the
Government owned all the equities, we wouldn't really be much different than
the old Soviet Union." Really? The absence of free elections, the suppression
of dissidents, the state-run economy, the furry hats -- all that in one seemingly
innocuous accounting shift?
If the fearmongering is working, it's because it seems to make
sense at first blush. Having the Government own shares of the private sector
is indeed dangerous. But listen to what Mr. Clinton actually proposes to do.
He wants to take a small portion of the budget surplus and turn
it over to the Social Security trust fund. The trust fund would give the money
to an independent board, whose members would be insulated from political influence
the same way members of the Federal Reserve are. They would hire private-sector
fund managers to invest the money in passive index funds and forfeit all voting
rights on those shares. Could future Congresses change the rules if they wanted
to attach strings to the money? Sure, but they could do the same thing to the
Federal Reserve -- a far more tempting target.
There may well be some flaws in this proposal that haven't come
to light. But conservatives haven't even tried to figure out what these might
be, preferring instead to dismiss it out of hand.
It's not hard to figure out why. Conservatives have never warmed
to Social Security, particularly the way it redistributes wealth. Republicans
thought Social Security reform would give them an opportunity to privatize the
system. Their most politically potent argument was that a privatized system
would allow individuals to enjoy the higher returns that the stock market historically
yields. But if you can get those higher returns without privatizing, as Mr.
Clinton suggests, then privatization loses its appeal to all but hard-core conservatives.
Congressional critics are making much of the fact that Alan
Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed his opposition to
putting the trust fund in stocks. But Mr. Greenspan also said using the surplus
for debt reduction -- the main element of the Clinton plan -- would be preferable
to tax cuts. In truth, there is no reason to give special deference to Mr. Greenspan's
views on budgets and taxes. He is responsible for monetary policy, on which
we quite properly hang on his every word, but on other matters his thoughts
should count for no more than those of any other conservative economist.
The political genius of Mr. Clinton's plan is that it marries
good policy with good politics. This used to be what Republicans called responsible
budgeting. How sad that they now see it as unacceptable.
Copyright 1999, The New York Times
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