The most irritating thing about newspapers is their convention of presenting
disagreements on matters of fact as nothing more than differences of opinion.
Recently, a city official here resigned because he used the word " niggardly."
A Washington Post story reported that the word "means different things
to different people." Most of the Washingtonians quoted felt it could be taken
as a slur, but others did not. And who is the Post to say which side
is right? The same day, another Post story reported that President Clinton's
Social Security plan is in trouble; it is widely thought to be a "budgetary
sleight-of-hand that actually has the effect of counting twice the money that
would have gone into the program anyway." Now, it is either double-counting
or it isn't, but the article did not delve into the merits of the accusation.
Instead it focused on the fact that "serious questions are surfacing."
The question surfaced, among other places,
in an article in last week's TNR by Matthew Miller. For those who missed
it, Miller assumes the following scenario: The budget surplus is $150 billion,
of which $100 billion comes from the leftover Social Security taxes that weren't
used to pay for current benefits. That $100 billion goes into the Social Security
trust fund. Then Clinton takes 60 percent of the total budget surplus--$90 billion--and
gives it to the trust fund. That means the trust fund gets a total of $190 billion.
Since this is more than the total value of the budget surplus, Miller concludes
that Clinton's plan "double-counts" and is also a "scam," " legerdemain," and
a good dozen other synonyms.
I admit it looks strange. But there's
a perfectly decent explanation. Suppose that I loan you a dollar, and you promise
to pay me back with interest. The Chait trust fund is now worth one dollar.
Then, out of the goodness of your heart, you decide to give me back the same
dollar as a gift. Now I am worth two dollars: the dollar I have, plus the dollar
you still owe me. Clinton's proposal works the same way. Social Security brings
in an extra dollar that it doesn't need this year. It loans the dollar to the
rest of the federal budget, and in return the federal government deposits an
IOU for one dollar in Social Security's trust fund. (The trust fund is an accounting
device to keep track of all the dollars Social Security has loaned out.) Now
the extra dollar belongs to the non-Social Security budget, and the government
can spend it any way it wants. Clinton proposes giving that dollar- -- 60 cents
of that dollar, actually, but let's keep it simple--back to the Social Security
trust fund. Then the trust fund takes the dollar and purchases a $1 federal
bond from the general public. Hence, it has increased its value by more than
the value of the budget surplus.
In case it sounds like I'm trying to
pull a fast one, let's ponder those two transactions in turn. The first part
simply involves lending the Social Security surplus to the general budget. This
resembles double-counting in the sense that the money credited to the trust
fund can also be used for other purposes. Yet, while the outcry in the press
might make you think that Clinton invented this tactic, every federal budget
has done this for decades. Indeed, the very same Republicans who are denouncing
Clinton--including self- proclaimed budget hawks such as John Kasich and Pete
Domenici--have themselves proposed using the budget surplus, made up largely
of Social Security funds, to pay for new tax cuts or private retirement accounts.
The only new element is what Clinton
proposes to do with the money after Social Security lends it to the general
budget. The general budget gives most of the money right back to the trust fund
as a grant, not a loan. The trust fund takes about 15 percent of the money and
gives it to an independent board to invest in stock indexes. (This part is also
controversial, but I won't get into it right now.) It invests the rest of the
money in Treasury bills, thus reducing the national debt. Again, this might
appear suspicious--how can you use the same dollar to reduce the national debt
and bolster the Social Security trust fund? The answer is that it has the same
economic effect as reducing the national debt. Right now there are millions
of Americans who own federal bonds--IOUs for money they've lent to Uncle Sam.
When the trust fund buys up some of those bonds, the public then can use the
money to spend or invest in the private sector. To the extent the money is invested
in efficient new productive capacity, it strengthens the economy over the long
run. Also, by reducing the debt it owes to the public, the government increases
its ability to borrow in the future. The only twist is that Clinton's plan guarantees
that the benefits of this saving accrue to Social Security.
If this still strikes you funny, consider
an alternative scenario. If Clinton took the Social Security portion of the
budget surplus and spent it all on tax credits or child care or wild parties
in the Oval Office, the money would still be credited to the trust fund. So,
if he instead saves the money for Social Security, shouldn't the trust fund
reflect the difference?
One common objection is that bolstering
the trust fund cannot work because it accumulates nothing but IOUs. But the
debtor on those IOUs is the United States government, the safest credit risk
in the history of civilization. And the creditors are future Social Security
recipients, who demonstrate roughly the same level of forgiveness toward missed
payments as a loan shark from the Gambino family. Anyway, this isn't a reason
to oppose Clinton's plan, which boosts the government's capacity to make good
on future debts.
But Miller doesn't claim the trust fund
won't be there. Instead he argues that Clinton is simply pulling money out of
the sky. The "logical extension" of the Clinton plan, he writes, is "to use
the same accounting trick to boost the trust fund a few extra trillion and announce
that Clinton had put the Social Security problem behind us altogether." He's
arguing, in other words, that Clinton's plan would have allowed him to add as
much money as he wanted to the trust fund. But this is simply not the case.
The most Clinton could have put into the trust fund is twice the surplus. This
is a fact, not an opinion.
The president's idea might not be in
so much trouble, then, if Congress and the media actually understood it. But,
then again, maybe it wouldn't matter. Upon hearing that "niggardly" derives
from Middle English and Scandinavian dialects, one offendee shrugged: "Do we
really know where the Norwegians got the word?" Yes, maybe they anticipated
that, centuries hence, the word " nigger" would become a slur in English and
then subsequently become socially unacceptable, so they preemptively sneaked
a similar-sounding word into the language. All I know for sure is that serious
questions are surfacing.
Copyright 1999, The New Republic
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