In 1790, the United States became the first modern nation to
undertake a comprehensive count of its population as a routine responsibility of
government. The constitutionally mandated decennial census was part and parcel of a
revolutionary concept in government. If the new nation's democratically elected
governments were to be truly representative of the people, then the government itself
would have to make regular efforts to determine just how many of those people there were.
Whereas the Senate was established to represent the interests of the states, the House
of Representatives was designed to represent the interests of individuals. The
Constitution dictates that every decade a census be used to apportion representatives
among the states according to the relative size of their populations.
From the very beginning, the American nation has been characterised by rapid population
growth and movement. Hence the census has as much to do with political power shifts as it
does with population shifts. With so much at stake, the census has always been a magnet
for controversy. George Washington was unhappy with the first ever count of the American
people. (He thought that it was too low.) True to tradition, the 2000 census, which will
be conducted on April 1st, will be greeted with grumbling from all sides.
Indeed, over the past few years the 2000 census has been shaping up as the most
contentious since 1920, when rural lawmakers refused to reapportion House seats based on
data showing that more Americans lived in cities than in the countryside. On the surface,
contemporary Democrats and Republicans have been fighting over methodology: whether the
Census Bureau should employ sophisticated statistical sampling techniques or an
old-fashioned head count.
But the real battle has been over who will be counted. Despite its $2.6 billion price
tag, the 1990 census was a debacle, leaving an estimated 10m people uncounted, many of
them members of Democratic-leaning minority groups. To avoid repeating such a massive
undercount in 2000, the Census Bureau had been advocating the use of sampling-a process
whereby 90% of people are physically counted and the remaining 10% are statistically
inferred. Hoping a higher tally of minorities would help them create new friendly
political constituencies, the Democrats championed the bureau's cause, but to no avail.
Citing the Constitution-and not so secretly wishing for another undercount-the
Republicans opposed sampling. They demanded the actual (and perhaps impossible)
enumeration of every person in the country. A former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, went as
far as to call sampling a "dagger pointed at the heart" of the Republican
majority and filed suit against the government to stop it. The Supreme Court ruled in his
favour and ordered the Census Bureau to conduct a traditional enumeration.
Therefore it is a foregone conclusion that the 2000 census will vastly undercount the
American people. Despite a scheduled $100m national ad campaign to "make everyone
count", Americans of all stripes will duck census counters out of a distrust of
government and a growing concern for privacy.
The variety of recent immigrants means that language barriers will pose significant
challenges to the Census Bureau in 2000. Nonetheless, the new data will reveal a nation
that is becoming more racially and ethnically complex than ever before. In the 2000
census, America will be more heavily Latino than it was in 1990. And in part due to the
anti-immigration fervour in the first half of the decade, more immigrants will be
naturalised American citizens than ten years before.
Yet, even while documenting the diversification of the American people, the 2000 census
will also mark the beginning of the end of America's archaic official racial accounting
scheme.
In 2000, for the first time, Americans will be able to identify themselves as
multiracial. While not necessarily the best solution, the Census Bureau will nonetheless
allow respondents to tick any or all of the four primary racial boxes: African-American,
white, Asian/Pacific Islander, or American Indian/Alaska Native. In the past, the Census
asked respondents to pick only one of the above categories. (Hispanic remains a separate
ethnic-and non-racial-classification.)
The multiple-race option came after three years of emotional public debate between
multiracial activist and traditional minority civil-rights groups. The Clinton
administration rejected a proposed self-standing "multiracial" category that
would have included all people of mixed racial background.
Lobbied hard by ethnic advocacy groups that feared the diminishment of their
constituencies if a multiracial category had been approved, the White House stumbled on
the multiple race option as a political compromise. Census 2000 will acknowledge
multiracial Americans even while upholding the old classifications.
However modes, the change in rules will affect policies like affirmateive action or the
drawing of minority legislative districts. But the most long-lasting consequence of the
new census form is likely to be administrative confusion. It is not at all clear how the
multiracial data will ultimately be used. Will the daughter of an African-American father
and a white mother be considered black when state legislatures are attemption to forge
black-dominant political districts? And what about a citizen who says he is a combination
of black, Asian, and white? Will the government consider him all or none of the above?
Despite the steady increase in Asian immigration to the United States, the 2000 census
might very well count fewer Asian-Americans than in 1990. In a 1996 test run, 30% of
Asian-American respondents identified themselves as multiracial.
And although the Census Bureau does not expect many Americans to tick more than one box
in 2000-past policy has encouraged people to choose one heritage over the
other-multiracial Americans will increasingly make their presence felt. Since 1970, the
population of multiracial children has quadrupled in the United States. Between 1960 and
1990, the number of once-illegal unions between races increased 900%. In contemporary
California, one in every six births is a mixed-race child. However flawed, the 2000 census
will officially mark America's new found freedom not just to acknowledge its past, but
also its future heritage.
Copyright 1999, The Economist
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